You forgot a fourth option the changes to the Enterprise in DSC/SNW are just cosmetic, because it's a show created in the 21st century, and the ship is not actually different in universe. The reason we got a TOS-like (it wasn't identical) design in Picard Season 3 was because the art department was run by old school fans.
Paramount isn't forcing artistic consistency between the different shows.
And yet, ST: ENT did in fact honor TOS by introducing the TOS designed USS Defiant in the Mirror Universe.
We also saw that the USS Defiant in ST

iscovery S2 was different (on the schematics) than the constitution class from TOS, and when TNG had Scotty show up, in the holodeck, they recreated the TOS Ent bridge.
DS9 also when going to the past in Trials and Tribble-ations, referenced the TOS design (externally and internally).
If you ask me, there IS a pattern to the Prime Universe continuity... and SNW/Disco don't seem to be a part of it.
I get where you're coming from, but artistic style or not, it creates a rather large discontinuity (visually).
It would be like seeing a remake of ST:VOY, TNG or even DS9 today.
Some similarities would be there obviously, but in terms of visual changes and most other stories, they would vastly differ (as such, there would be no way to reconcile it by saying its all in the same universe - unless more temporal changes have been done to the timeline - but then Disco arrived and introduced the Burn, along with the post temporal wars Temporal Accords which prevent changes to the timestream - and that doesn't mesh obviously - since changing TOS to such a large extent would obviously create a big impact).
With inclusion of PIC S3 Fleet Museum TOS Connie, the evidence points to the premise that SNW/Disco could in fact be part of an alternate universe where various events share similarities with the Prime Timeline, but are otherwise different... and this in turn also creates a distinct 31st century with very little tech progression along with the Burn we saw in Disco S3... but otherwise, these events are probably NOT due to occur in the actual Prime Timeline 31st century because they don't seem to be a part of it.
The upcoming crossover between Lower Decks and SNW could say that SNW/Disco is part of the prime timeline, but it could also indicate its not (despite various events being similar/same).