After Abraham's murder, Rick was still defiant--Negan beat that drum over and over again (ultimately leading to his pressuring Rick to cut off Carl's arm, or threaten another beating). It was all on Rick--as long as Negan saw defiance in his eyes, the horror would continue, so even if Daryl sat still, the surrounding circumstances probably would have moved Negan to kill again.
Part of Daryl being the Violent Impulsive Dumbass--it plays into this "rebel with a suffering heart of gold" that made the fangilrs swoon for six seasons, so Gimple, et al., will not do much to change that--unless Carol dies.
Oh yes I think Negan would have done something else, but Daryl's actions clearly gave him the excuse (not that he really needed one) and it's possible things would have gone down a different way, maybe he would have jumped straight to telling Rick to hack Carl's arm off, only this time actually gone all the way, who knows, but Glen's death directly followed Daryl's attack, so I think it's fair to suggest he accepts some of the blame.
This week's was good, but also a touch predictable. Rick taking all the Oeansiders' guns did seem a trifle mean, seriously leaving them a couple of pistols and a rifle would have made that much difference? Surely the way to at least pay lip service to being better than Negan is to leave them some means of defending themselves beyond bladed weapons.
I liked Maggie turning her back on Gregory. Maybe I'm reading too much into the character but it struck me as Maggie testing him. "This is going to come down to you and me eventually so here you go, here's your shot." And he didn't take it, although it does seem obvious he's on his way to tell Simon now. I hope that's misdirection, be nice if he gets some redemption.
Michonne hesitating seemed more down to not having a clear shot to me.
I liked all the Sasha/Negan/Eugene stuff. It's moments like this where Negan becomes more than a caricature and where you can see why rational people would sign up for his army, and in many ways Eugene is possibly the most realistic character in the show.
If they'd opened the door and Sasha had had the knife she wouldn't have had time to use it. Much like Maggie (maybe) Negan was giving Sasha her shot. It was clear from Sasha's face at the end of her initial conversation with Eugene that she was playing him. Her disappointment at getting a pill rather than a gun/knife just cemented that fact. It's a shame Sasha and Rosita didn't get more time as a team, because the contrast between short fuse/short term Rosita and clinical/calculating/ long game Sasha could have made for some interesting stuff.
I feel awful but Negan's whole Rapey Dave thing did make me giggle far too much.
People I expect might die next week: Aaron's boyfriend (does he have a name?) Enid, Gregory, Dwight, Sasha, Rosita...but maybe none of the above. In fact it won't surprise me if the whole thing isn't a build up to the battle...which will take place at the start of season 8!