One reason why Insurrection didn't work as a movie was if felt like a TNG episode with a slightly jumped up budget. Worse still, it came out while DS9 was still on the air, and deep into the climax of the Dominion War. The studio had a chance to actually integrate the TNG crew into the Dominion War (potentially boosting DS9's ratings in the final year) and make Picard one of the heroes of the conflict, and instead expressedly made him sit out the war doing other crap. They altered his most plausible character trajectory as a highly decorated captain of Starfleet's flagship for a throwaway plot which didn't befit his level of experience.
Completely off-topic, but I have to disagree hard with that:
I'm absolutely happy that Insurrection ignored the Dominion War. (as did VOY). Because quite honestly - I don't give a rat's ass about the Dominion War. I like the Dominion as antagonists. But they fumbled the entire arc and turned it into WWII in Spaaaaace! And that is as generic as it gets.
And besides - I wasn't watching DS9 at the time. And neither was the majority of Trek fans, and especially not public mainstream audiences. Tying up your big blockbuster movie to an obscure storyline on a telvision show only a miniscule part of your intended audience watches would be bad.
The reason Insurrection wasn't as successfull as First Contact was purely it's own fault - that it was just not as engaging a story for a big genre SF movie. The Son'a and Ba'ku simply didn't carry an entire movie. But IMO the movie could have turned out great if if focused more on the insurrection-part of it's plot. It shouldn't have been sidetracked to serve as bonus material for a tv-show. It just needed it's own plot sorted out better.
My point is - as you said - this can't return to small-bore anomaly of the week stuff.
My point is basically, there are two ways that the show could go. One way is if it revolves around Picard's job. If it does that, Picard needs to have a job which reflects his seniority (both in terms of experience and declining physical state). He can't just be a captain, or even an admiral with a ship going on a standard Trek-style adventure. Obviously there should be more here than existential threats, but it's easy to get that. Picard is a man in the twilight of his career (if not his life) and he has no children. His legacy is his work, and anything which threatens that legacy threatens his relevance.
The other option is he's retired, retired then called back into service, or still working, but his work is just the backdrop to the story rather than integral to it (e.g., Q appears and drags him off on some adventure through time or something). This could be a more small bore/personal stakes type of story.
With all of this I have to completely agree!
Everything you say is true. I think the only things where I differ in opinion is the connection to the Hobus supernova:
Because, once again, like with Insurrection, I think tying your entirely new property, that should firmly stand on it's own, and in the best case even attract audiences that are only loosely familiar with TNG from it's heydas - tying that story up to such an unimportant background-event - the dark point in the backstory of a character from the future, a future that never happened in the realm of the movie it was told in - to make this one-note event, that never really was tought out in the movie (again: "a supernove threatening to destryo the galaxy!) - to make THIS a central part of your story. That's just stupid.
That's like having the big blockbuster TNG-movie be a tiny side-mission in the grander scheme of a war fought by a television Captain at the same time. That's just asking for trouble.
A new Picard show should put it's focus on Picard - whatever he's doing, or whatever occupies his mind personally. It should NOT be used to retroactively explain or make references to previous material!
It was a bad choice to have DIS first season revolve entirely around already familiar concepts from TOS (klingons + MU). It would be an even bigger mistake to have the first Picard season revolve around solving continuity issues created by a 10 year old reboot movie!