Even if its not realistic, I like to think that things eventually get back on track. The farther ahead you go the more the same it is to the original timeline, with some minor changes.
By that thinking, I say that by the time of the original movies things are pretty much the same, maybe the ships look a bit different because of the technology jump in this movie, but the adventures stay the same.
TOS might be a little more affected. The ship looks different, the bridge is different. A couple adventures might not happen, a couple new ones take their place, for the most part it goes down the same way.
All in all I'm pretty much choosing to ignore the logical butterfly effect and go with the version that makes me happier.