The Down Under Lounge

[Botany Bay]

Petrie and Grey have gone to the Coalition overnight. It's now looking like this :

Coal 70
ALP 67
Others 5
Up for grabs 8 :
Capricornia
Chisholm
Cowan
Dunckley
Forde
Gilmore
Herbert
Hindmarsh

So only Coalition can get to 76, but they need six out of eight to get there. Possible but unlikely.

From talking to a few people, at this stage, it's looking like this :
Coal 70 + Capricornia (tight) + Herbert (tight) + Chisholm + Dunckley + Forde + Gilmore = 76
ALP 67 + Cowan + Hindmarsh = 69
Others = 5

Add in the likely alliances :
Coal 76 + Katter = 77
ALP 69 + Bandt + Wilkie + McGowan + Xenophon = 73.

Summary : impossible for Labor to form government. Coalition minority govt looks most likely now. But Capricornia and Herbert so, so important...

 

[Botany Bay]

Dunkley and Chisholm fall to the Coalition. To govern in their own right, they need four of
Capricornia (LAB in front by 970)
Cowan (LAB in front by 757)
Forde (LIB 130 in front)
Gilmore (LIB 688 in front)
Herbert (LAB 722 in front)
Hindmarsh (LAB 144 in front).

 

[Miss Chicken]

I am almost hoping that Labor cannot form government. If the LNP had trouble governing before it will be even more hopeless now. Maybe this election will be an eye-opener to both parties and they will listen more to the voters.

 

[jaz'a]

I don't want a labor government now. It will be too difficult with the new senate and I would rather than the LNP look bad because they can't make it work. It will be very difficult for the Liberals to shake anything up too much given who they'll have to get on side. The senate should clear up a bit the next election as the minor guys find it much more difficult to be reelected. Hopefully by then we're had some stability in party leadership (and party leadership listens more) meaning people are less disillusioned and more willing to look at the majors again.

 

[Botany Bay]

Things really moving now. Currently :
COAL 72
ALP 66
Other 5
Up for grabs :
-Capricornia
-Cowan
-Forde
-Gilmore
-Herbert
-Hindmarsh
-Flynn (assumed to be going to Labor, but back "in doubt").

I'm going to give them out based on what I've heard :
COAL 72 + Forde + HIndmarsh + Gilmore = 75
ALP 66 + Cowan + Flynn = 68
Other 5
Up for grabs = Capricornia + Herbert = 2 (where these last two land, who knows).

It's literally going to come down to two seats. You couldn't get a closer election than this one.

 

[SPCTRE]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Australis]

Bob Kattar fo Speaker!

 

[Miss Chicken]

Opinions please.

Myself and a friend were going through a checkout at Coles. I like shopping with this friend as she helps me get things that are too low down for me to reach.

I had exchanged pleasantries with this cashier and a few moments later I started a conversation with my friend who was next in line with her own purchases. The conversation went something like this

Me - I meant to tell you. I had to pay $17 for the visit today. They are no longer bulk-billing pensioners.

My friend - are you going to keep going?

Me - Yes. Future visits will cost me $12, this one was more because they had to do a review.

My friend - I was charged $9 for my medication yesterday because they didn't have any of the brand on my prescription.

Me - they didn't even have a generic brand?

My friend - no, I had to go for the dearer brand that wasn't listed.

Cashier in a snarky voice - I don't know why you are complaining. You could be paying full price like the rest of us do.

I was taken aback. Afterwards I wish I could have pointed out to her many of her prescriptions are indeed subsidised if they are on the PBS just to a lesser extent than pensioners' prescriptions are. And I wish I had pointed out that I couldn't help being disabled and I don't appreciate her looking down her nose at me because I am disabled enough to be on a pension.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

If she is a cashier and has any kids she may well have a health care card in which case she is subsidised?

I would like to see a broader health care scheme so those that got a bit ahead don't feel penalized for still having a job, no kids and yet being sick.

 

[photon70]

Well, 1 on 4 voters put their 1st preference down for a smaller party.

Neither major side of politics are doing anything about trying to recapture the votes or even acknowledging this.

Both continue to assume they'll always be 2nd preference and thus, by default, get your vote anyway.

The day will come, maybe even just 2 or 3 Federal elections away when the % of 1st preference votes to a smaller party becomes big enough that we don't have to worry about who's No 2.

 

[Botany Bay]

Opinions please.

Myself and a friend were going through a checkout at Coles. I like shopping with this friend as she helps me get things that are too low down for me to reach.

I had exchanged pleasantries with this cashier and a few moments later I started a conversation with my friend who was next in line with her own purchases. The conversation went something like this

Me - I meant to tell you. I had to pay $17 for the visit today. They are no longer bulk-billing pensioners.

My friend - are you going to keep going?

Me - Yes. Future visits will cost me $12, this one was more because they had to do a review.

My friend - I was charged $9 for my medication yesterday because they didn't have any of the brand on my prescription.

Me - they didn't even have a generic brand?

My friend - no, I had to go for the dearer brand that wasn't listed.

Cashier in a snarky voice - I don't know why you are complaining. You could be paying full price like the rest of us do.

I was taken aback. Afterwards I wish I could have pointed out to her many of her prescriptions are indeed subsidised if they are on the PBS just to a lesser extent than pensioners' prescriptions are. And I wish I had pointed out that I couldn't help being disabled and I don't appreciate her looking down her nose at me because I am disabled enough to be on a pension.

Downward envy is pretty revolting. Here the checkout people have all been replaced by automated checkouts. Your cashier may see how much fun life is for people with health cards in the near future. I wouldn't have argued. I would have complained. You're doing the business a favour -- people like that should be nowhere near customers.

Well, 1 on 4 voters put their 1st preference down for a smaller party.

Neither major side of politics are doing anything about trying to recapture the votes or even acknowledging this.

Both continue to assume they'll always be 2nd preference and thus, by default, get your vote anyway.

The day will come, maybe even just 2 or 3 Federal elections away when the % of 1st preference votes to a smaller party becomes big enough that we don't have to worry about who's No 2.

I agree with this. "Mediscare" was revealing. It shows that Medicare is something all but the RWNJ's acknowledge is an Australian institution, and should be preserved. It also shows there are regions doing it tough economically - Tassie, Western Sydney, North Qld. It also tells us there are many people who get their info from soundbites with no understanding of the issues. I'd like to see compulsory preferencing and/or compulsory voting abolished. Make them earn our votes.

The cosy duopoly looks over anyway. Labor are unlikely to govern alone ever again. The Coalition could be heading down the same path unless they can attract conservative voters. Turnbull needs to desperately show some humility. His election night fury at the electorate was a huge mistake. Christopher Pine saying "we're an election winning machine" when you scrape in by a single seat is delusional.

 

[Marc]

The cosy duopoly looks over anyway. Labor are unlikely to govern alone ever again. The Coalition could be heading down the same path unless they can attract conservative voters. Turnbull needs to desperately show some humility. His election night fury at the electorate was a huge mistake. Christopher Pine saying "we're an election winning machine" when you scrape in by a single seat is delusional.

Oh I think that Labor will govern in it's own right in the future. It's pretty much always done so (despite what the conservatards say there was never a Labor-Greens alliance - just a commitment that Labor would have support on matters of supply and confidence).

pandering mainly to the conservative base (which would include groups like the IPA who want Medicare abolished) would leave the Liberal party down the same path as the Republican party - internal division and alienation of the moderates and swing voters (the later are pretty much the small group who really decide the elections).

Pyne the poodle is just shooting his mouth off as usually and cherry picking. Sure if you want to go back 20 years Australia has had 14 years coalition/6 labor. Go back 30 years it becomes 16 years labor/14 years coalition.

Labor stuck to it's statement that it wouldn't form a minority government. turnbull backflipped and went a courting and got the katter, wilkie and mcgowan with all the rhetoric about how Labor 2010 - 2013 wasn't a legitimate government.

At the end of the day it was probably a good election to lose. The government doesn't have the numbers to get purse it's full agenda (despite the turds like corman claiming there's a mandate) because the senate is such a dogs breakfast.

Despite the bullshit speculation over Shorten's leadership from the right-wing media the unpalatable truth is that turnbull's leadership is under much greater threat. His DD gamble failed big time and he's taken a comfortable majority and blown it (for comparison, in 2010 Labor lost 10 seats, this time around the coalition has lost 16).

 

[Mr Soak]

So, DD trigger ABCC's (remember that? They mentioned I so much during the campaigning.) chances of passing joint sitting, opinions?

 

[Botany Bay]

They'll get through the house. As for the Senate, it's going to come down to Pauline, Derryn and Nick. Hanson will likely vote with the Coalition. As for the last two, who knows?

 

[Australis]

The checkout chick* must have been a Lib supporter.

People scream about the 'chaos' of the previous hung parliament, but a LOT of legislation was passed, some good stuff too.

We live in strange times.

*I use this slightly denigrating term for a person who also denigrates or is ignorant. At this point, too old, tired and pissed off to care about PC.
The checkout chick* must have been a Lib supporter.

People scream about the 'chaos' of the previous hung parliament, but a LOT of legislation was passed, some good stuff too.

We live in strange times.

*I use this slightly denigrating term for a person who also denigrates or is ignorant. At this point, too old, tired and pissed off to care about PC.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

Back in Melbourne after month in glorious heat and humidity. It's VERY COLD.

 

[Marc]

Back in Melbourne after month in glorious heat and humidity. It's VERY COLD.

it's currently 30 degrees plus feeling like 39 with humidex so I'd tell you what you can do with your "glorious heat and humidity" but I'm in the wrong forum

 

[Botany Bay]

Coming home to this weather wouldn't be fun. It's six degrees in Sydney this morning!

For anyone wondering what the new Senate might look like :

Coal 28-30
Lab 25-26
Grn 7-9
Xenophon 3
Hanson 3
Lib Dem 2
Hinch 1
Lambie 1

A final result is still weeks away. Counting those things ain't easy.

 

[Marc]

Coming home to this weather wouldn't be fun. It's six degrees in Sydney this morning!

For anyone wondering what the new Senate might look like :

Coal 28-30
Lab 25-26
Grn 7-9
Xenophon 3
Hanson 3
Lib Dem 2
Hinch 1
Lambie 1

A final result is still weeks away. Counting those things ain't easy.

read elsewhere that that if the government wants to get legislation through the senate it's gonna have to hope labor agrees or it will need to get the support of 9 non-coalition senators to ensure passage. Anything else and it's line ball.

 

[Australis]

@teacake, where did you go? Not warm here, but it'll be 23 next week, apparently.

Possible recount of the seat of Herbert, won by the Libs on a very narrow margin.

Nice and Turkey. Jesus. My friend's daughter flew into Turkey just a day after the airport attack, and flew out last week. Too close.