I was one of those people who thought The Dark Knight was a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination. Not that'd win, but it'd get nominated. The critical/popular momentum combined with the enormous box office gross... well, Hollywood tends to like films that critics gave a pass to that audiences drove to box office superstardom. Just ask Ben-Hur, Titanic, and Return of the King, the box office epic extravaganzas which between each other are loaded with a party of golden men. I didn't necessarily think The Dark Knight would join their storied number or even win anything (aside from Heath Ledger's win, which had become mandatory via his death), but I figured nominations were a given. Not even because I liked TDK or believed it 'deserved' these awards, just because the logic behind it made sense to me.
Yeah, I was wrong. But if the ten-picture nomination scheme was permitted so Hollywood could avoid ignoring pictures like Dark Knight altogether, as some have claimed to be the case, then critical/financial hits like Star Trek and District 9 seem like fairly probable picks for Oscar nominations. They're popular and, unlike Transformers 2, they're liked by critics. District 9 has more chances because it has more credibility - the gritty South African social commentary aspect to it, while the Star Trek film was unabashed escapism.
I would love, LOVE to see Moon nominated for something but nobody has seen or remembered that film so I really doubt if it'll even get a pity visual effects nod (though the effects are amazing and even more amazing when you know what the budget was).
Avatar seems less likely than Star Trek or District 9 to me to pick up noms as far as films go, but then again the film is being released late and may buck initial mouthing off to become another critical/commerical success. James Cameron has had a pretty respectable Oscar track record - a nomination for an actress in a sci-fi movie, and also the aforesaid Titanic. But right now I'm ruling anything aside the obligatory SFX noms as pretty unlikely. And I really liked both trailers and am eagerly looking forward to the movie.
Also, random opinion, but not even 1939 was 1939. Flame away all you want, but Gone with the Wind is pretty goddamn mediocre and tiresome, also Dark Victory is decidedly eh.
Oh, yes, and not only do I say Inglourious Basterds getting a ton of nominations, it's going to win. Unless Hurt Locker gives it a knockout, but damn it I liked Inglourious Basterds better and I think Tarantino's time is due, so to speak, to get that Best Picture thingamajig.
(Also crap I want to see A Serious Man yesterday. 20th November, cannot come soon enough.)
