Gervasi's right about both his film's improbable chances and the fact that this year, with a best picture category that has doubled in size, nobody really knows how the race is going to unfold. And that's one reason why many Academy members and Oscar observers couldn't be happier with the decision to nominate 10 movies this year.
"The Oscars have become a little pretentious lately," says blockbuster disaster-movie director Roland Emmerich. "There's a disconnect with the audience. I think it's good to shake things up. Maybe we'll see a good movie like 'District 9,' something that both critics and audiences loved, get in the race."
The sci-fi thriller "District 9," with its allusions to apartheid, could indeed be the kind of smart crowdpleaser that finds its way into the final 10. J.J. Abrams' "Star Trek," James Cameron's upcoming "Avatar" and Quentin Tarantino's "Inglourious Basterds" are also being mentioned as possibilities.
As one Academy insider puts it, "The snarkiest day of the Oscar year is nomination day." With last year's picks, he says, the driving question was, "Where's Batman?" when fans learned that "The Dark Knight" had been snubbed.
But while one, maybe two, commercial movies might make their way to a nomination, boosters of Oscar's expanded field believe that the main beneficiaries of the new math will be foreign-language films, documentaries and small-scale dramas. That prospect is welcome news in a year that has been rife with bad tidings for indie labels.