'abiogenesis is effectively impossible' proponents like to come up with probability calculations that attempt to show how extremely unlikely it is. However, the exact assumptions of such calculations tend to be crucial for the results. Does it to need to be an all-or-nothing process, or are intermediate steps possible? Also, we don't yet know how much 'simpler' things could be, and some of these simplest, earliest forms of life may have long since disappeared. (I found this article interesting, though). Also, even if these calculations would be correct, it's possible the universe /multiverse is much, much, MUCH larger than we can observe- and I'm not talking a few measly orders of magnitude here. If large enough, it might even defeat the fantastical odds-against put forward by such calculations.