The Fantastic Four: First Steps
T-49
Thursday: 6,295 Seats Sold (From 16 Theaters)
Comps:
Captain America: Brave New World - $21.19M
Thunderbolts - $21.64M
= $21.42M
Taken as of 12:50 AM Eastern Time
IMPORTANT NOTES: Yeah, I literally cannot come up with another word to describe this pre-sales start other than... FANTASTIC!
This is hands down the biggest single day that I've ever tracked for a movie (if we don't count Wicked's first pre-sales day of combined EA screenings and Thursday previews) and as far as my two MCU comps, it blew right past them. To a point where this almost doubled what Thunderbolts and Captain America: Brave New World sold within their first day of pre-sales (3,345 and 3,565 seats respectively). With a pre-sale window of 50 days and having this much demand so early, it shows that interest is very high amongst seeing this film, which bodes incredibly well for when it opens in late July and amongst the other big summer competition
However, as is to be expected from an MCU movie, this is going to be front-loaded. We won't know for sure until we see critical/audience reception and how it paces closer to its release week, but on opening weekend and in the heat of the summer when most people are off work/school, I'm not expecting a super high IM. Thankfully, previews seem to point to a Thursday of at least $20M and if this has an IM of just 5x, that would get it to a $100M opening. I sadly don't have any July MCU comps, but last year, Deadpool & Wolverine had a near 5.5x Thursday-Sunday IM that got it to a jaw-dropping $211.4M opening weekend off of $38.5M in previews.
If Fantastic Four follows that same IM and off a Thursday that (if this holds) looks to land somewhere between $20M-$25M, then we're looking at a big opening weekend range of $110M-$138M. Of course, if reception isn't where it needs to be, there is always a chance this plays closer to another July MCU release, Thor: Love and Thunder. That film had a 4.97x multiplier and would just barely get this to over a $100M opening, but if critical reception and audience word-of-mouth is genuinely positive, then the IM should be much closer to Deadpool & Wolverine.
Anyways, as or right now (and still with a VERY long way to go until we get to T-3), the goal for this is to stay in the range of $20M-$25M. If so, then a $100M+ opening is most likely guaranteed and it'll be entirely up to word-of-mouth to determine how far this movie goes.
Like Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts before it, I will be tracking this day-by-day for the next week (hopefully will be done as soon as Superman starts its pre-sale run) and after I'm finished, will go back to tracking it week-by-week until the final days leading up to release. It's going to be another long pre-sales run to track, but if this great start is any indicator of what is to come, then I am excited to see where else this movie goes.
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That's encouraging! Good to know Thunderbolts didn't make the general audience lose interest!