I think it's interesting to note that three out of the last four MCU movies released
gave the impression of needing to know about Disney+ content in order to be enjoyed.
- The Marvels involved characters and plot lines from Ms. Marvel and Wandavision
- Captain America: Brave New World involved background from The Falcon & The Winter Soldier
- Thunderbolts also involved The Falcon & The Winter Soldier
I'll never understand why people think you "need" to see previous adventures to understand or enjoy the current story. All the big sci-fi franchises begin in medias res with reference to events the audience never saw.
Star Trek: "The Cage" opened with the crew hurting from the aftermath of a disastrous mission on Rigel VII.
Star Wars opened with a chase in progress as Princess Leia fled with the Death Star plans.
Doctor Who opened with its viewpoint characters discovering the mysterious Doctor and his granddaughter who told of many prior adventures and a secretive origin that audiences didn't learn about for years. So genre fans really ought to know better than to assume it's impossible to catch up with a story in progress along the way.
All of these movies underperformed. The only movie during this period which was a smash hit (Deadpool and Wolverine) pretty much ignored Disney+, other than using some of the background of Loki, like the TVA, though other than Hunter B-15 having a brief cameo, we didn't see any of the characters from that show.
I think that's disingenuously downplaying how much its story depended on the background from
Loki. Regardless of which characters appeared, the fundamental concepts of the TVA, its operations and methods, and the way the multiverse works were crucial to the plot of
Deadpool and Wolverine.
Also, D&W was heavily dependent on past continuity, even if it wasn't from D+ shows --
Loki backstory,
Avengers backstory, the backstory of the first two
Deadpool movies, the backstory of the Fox
X-Men and
Fantastic Four series, the older
Blade and
Elektra movies, even obscure insider knowledge of the cancelled Gambit movie. The whole movie was largely an exercise in continuity porn and referential humor. So it's weird to use it as an example to show that too much continuity is bad for a movie's success.
I'm also not sure it's really valid to compare it to MCU films, since, from a creative standpoint if not a business/ownership standpoint, it's effectively a Fox-Marvel film that only ties into the MCU rather than being an integral part of it. So perhaps its audience consisted more of
Deadpool and other Fox-Marvel fans than MCU fans, or at least the combination of the two fanbases may have compounded its success. So you can't isolate the factor of the level of Disney+ references from other factors that could influence audience size.