Memory Alpha has been wrong before and has adjusted their assumptions when actual info appears in an episode.
No, but they‘re not known to make stuff up either. And 2401 is consistently used for Season 2 on MA. Plus 2401 was on the wine bottles.
It seems that those instances have been somewhat retconned by new info presented from the folks who are creating Season 3.
According to Memory Alpha, The Coalition of Planets was founded sometime after 2155, but dissolved in 2161 with the founding of the UFP. The UFP didn't start until 2161. United Earth's StarFleet was founded in the 2130's. According to Memory Alpha, the celebration of Frontier Day was taking place in 2411, and the 250th anniversary means that they were talking about 2161, the founding of the UFP StarFleet.
Except in the JJ-verse, in which case even cadets can leapfrog the entirety of starfleet, including the wardroom of their own ship, and be captains.
MA had the wrong year for the most recent season of Lower Decks for weeks, and refused to change until an episode came along dating something in TNG to X years ago which forced their hand. For all we know we’ll see Riker or Picard’s speech later and they will reference Archer taking the NX-01 out 250 years ago.
If there's no date specifically called out or implied by other evidence in the season, I'd just split the difference and call it 2405 to mark the Coalition of Planets and intergalactic Starfleet. But I'm not the Gods of Memory Alpha. We'll see what Dave or Terry come back with.
Terry said in a TrekMovie interview that it is indeed 2401. https://trekmovie.com/2023/02/18/ex...prise-roots-of-mtalas-prime-and-frontier-day/
So Frontier Day isn’t the same thing as Federation Founding Day, then. One wonders why it’s such a big deal, then. Celebrating when the NX-01 was launched? I would think that would pale in comparison to the founding of the Federation. Methinks someone didn’t think this through fully.
You'd think signing the Declaration of Independence would pale in comparison to ratifying the Constitution that made the United States an actual country, too. Plus, it's a big round number, and given the way Riker and Picard were talking about it, this wasn't an every-year kind of holiday.
Both of those things have to do with the USA. Frontier Day only has to do with Earth, not the entire Federation.