You could add David into the mix, but he may have been killed anyway regardless of Kirk's involvement for his knowledge of Genesis, which the Klingons knew about through hacking by Kruge's girlfriend.
It also adds into the fact that nothing bad happened in 2 that was related to Kirk not believing in a no win scenario. The bad stuff happened because he didn't raise shields on the Reliant! To attribute all of that to "I don't believe in a no win scenario" is bad is a bit of a bait and switch.
In any case, I do agree that if something's a clear no win scenario, you have to fight your hardest to get out of it.
Common sense says that if there's a noncommunicative starfleet vessel, raise shields. Kirk didn't do it and lost.
Common sense says if you know of a bad future danger, say something about it. Should Pike do what Kirk did and go against common sense?