the bookies had the LNP under campbell newman as odds on favourites to fairly easily win the last QLD election.....
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- Thread starter TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME
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the bookies had the LNP under campbell newman as odds on favourites to fairly easily win the last QLD election.....
If you're on board with my gut feeling that the longer this goes on, the worse it gets for Turnbull, yes, Labor look very tempting at $3.70.
Unfortunately though, the betting isn't even hinting something could be afoot in the marginals. The only people polling the 25 seats that matter are the two major parties, and, rationally if there was something going on, the individual seat betting would reflect it as insiders on both sides put money down on the mispriced true winners. You'd have to assume the marginals in a federal election would be polled much more rigorously than state seats in a Queensland election nobody thought (except to the credit of a few people on here, including yourself from memory) was seriously in play.
I sense real disappointment in Turnbull that he's walked away from his principles to be PM, but I'm not sure there's that raw anger to take to him with baseball bats the way Queenslanders did to Newman. Actually Queenslanders look set to save Turnbull's bacon, with seats like Griffith even being gained. WA might be worth keeping an eye on with a very creaky state government and economic problems aplenty. Western Sydney -- after Queensland the most important battleground -- seems to be a problem for the Libs. The Penrith based seat of Lindsay, considered to be the bellwether seat these days, looks very much in play for Labor.
You're quite right though, since Newman, nobody can be considered safe any more, but I'm not ready to have a dollar on either side just yet. While there's no red hot determation to kick the Libs out, poll after poll suggests the electorate is at least thinking about it.
Unfortunately though, the betting isn't even hinting something could be afoot in the marginals. The only people polling the 25 seats that matter are the two major parties, and, rationally if there was something going on, the individual seat betting would reflect it as insiders on both sides put money down on the mispriced true winners. You'd have to assume the marginals in a federal election would be polled much more rigorously than state seats in a Queensland election nobody thought (except to the credit of a few people on here, including yourself from memory) was seriously in play.
I sense real disappointment in Turnbull that he's walked away from his principles to be PM, but I'm not sure there's that raw anger to take to him with baseball bats the way Queenslanders did to Newman. Actually Queenslanders look set to save Turnbull's bacon, with seats like Griffith even being gained. WA might be worth keeping an eye on with a very creaky state government and economic problems aplenty. Western Sydney -- after Queensland the most important battleground -- seems to be a problem for the Libs. The Penrith based seat of Lindsay, considered to be the bellwether seat these days, looks very much in play for Labor.
You're quite right though, since Newman, nobody can be considered safe any more, but I'm not ready to have a dollar on either side just yet. While there's no red hot determation to kick the Libs out, poll after poll suggests the electorate is at least thinking about it.
This is not the same as the Queensland election. At least it doesn't feel the same to me. Newman was absolutely hated. Hate changes governments. I'm not feeling that with Turnbull. I get more a sense that everyone feels like it's more of the same and whoever wins nothing will change. It's more a sense of disillusionment than anger and hate. Disillusionment with politics in general doesn't change governments.
Even as a staunch labor voter I don't really care. For a while I was considering voting liberal but Turnbull hasn't given me good enough cause to follow through on the thought. Yet Labor no longer has my confidence either. It's a lose-lose either way.
Even as a staunch labor voter I don't really care. For a while I was considering voting liberal but Turnbull hasn't given me good enough cause to follow through on the thought. Yet Labor no longer has my confidence either. It's a lose-lose either way.
Shorten summed Turnbull's dumping of what he stands for quite well in the recent debate. Stated that while he leads his party, Turnbull's party leads him.
A very bad attempt at an Australian accent
So how is everyone going up in super storm land to the north of me?
And Miss Chicken I can't bring myself to watch terrible aus accents, it is just too painful
Okay wait I am watching it.. wtf
And Miss Chicken I can't bring myself to watch terrible aus accents, it is just too painful
Okay wait I am watching it.. wtf
Three people are missing in the floods in northern Tasmania.
Down here in the south there has been flooding but no where nearly as bad as up north.
Down here in the south there has been flooding but no where nearly as bad as up north.
Bizarrely for Melbourne it has not even rained, just general dampness.
I need to correct what I said in my last thread. One of the missing in Tasmania is not from the north of Tasmania, but from Ouse which is in the Central Highlands.
It was weird, we had a lot of rain but no actual storm, seemed to go out to sea around us (Pt Stephens to Sydney Nthn suburbs).
Turnbull should not have called such a long election, it's working against him.
Anyone watching 'Cleverman'? Aussie SF on ABC/iView. It's got that grim feel I'm not overly fond of, but it is interesting and worth checking out.
Turnbull should not have called such a long election, it's working against him.
Anyone watching 'Cleverman'? Aussie SF on ABC/iView. It's got that grim feel I'm not overly fond of, but it is interesting and worth checking out.
Aussie SF? Will have a look. Cheers.
If anyone's still awake following the election, Labor have really blown out in the last week. You can get $5.75 for them to win now.
The only interesting thing at this stage is whether there could be a surprise change of Government ie : voters believe the Coalition's got it in the bag and want to send a protest, but actually end up tipping them out.
If anyone's still awake following the election, Labor have really blown out in the last week. You can get $5.75 for them to win now.
The only interesting thing at this stage is whether there could be a surprise change of Government ie : voters believe the Coalition's got it in the bag and want to send a protest, but actually end up tipping them out.
yeah posters on another site keep using the bookie odds to show the LNP is going to win the election (then again they are rusted on LNP supporters who add little to the discussion) but those odds are generally based on where people are putting their money (which is probably just as much tied to political ideology).
well into the QLD election last year, the bookies were still tipping the LNP to win even if campbell newman got the heave ho.
http://www.qt.com.au/news/bookies-back-lnp-tip-newman-ministers-could-go/2515049/
and looking at who's predictions are better.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...-at-predicting-elections-20160528-gp64e9.html
Cleverman is something that I heard about a month ago. Yet to watch it, might over the weekend.
Labor now out past $6. Someone on the inside knows something we don't.
I guess now I'm officially unable to work this election due to work, I can have my say in places like this!
We have the Liberals seeking re-election on a platform of jobs and growth, yet since last year, 60,000 full time jobs have gone. Since they came to office, part time employment has massively outpaced full-time. By twice as much, in fact. Overall we have about 8 million people with full-time jobs, and a staggering 4 million in part time jobs. No wonder people's wages are growing at the lowest rates on record. I realise this isn't Communist Russia, and the government can't command the economy to do what it wants, but if you want to be elected on a platform of being wonderful economic managers, you need to be called out on it when you're, at best, ordinary for three years. Also, can someone explain to me what mandate Turnbull will have? He seems to stand for little else other than capping his admittedly brilliant working life with a stint as PM. God help him if the Libs barely scrape home. As the Chaser magazine cover put it : "You decide...who gets to be PM for 18 months". Unappealing.
My local Labor MP takes their seat for granted and is all but invisible in our community, and represents the hard left that's dragging the ALP away from the main game, and keeping them from office in my opinion. Tax and spend economics, open borders and identity politics. No thankyou.
Like 40% of Australians this election I just want to pre-poll vote and get it out of the way, but I seriously don't know who to vote for.
Edit : looks like I'm not alone. Both majors have Primary votes in the 30's according to Fairfax. The non-majors are polling a whopping 28%. This isn't just a protest. People are voting in record numbers right now. Labor's PV of 33% is too low to win outright, but you'd be brave to say the Libs are home either, with their shocking 39% -- about the level that triggered Abbott's removal. Hung parliament still looks in the mix to me. And, whoever wins, good luck getting things through the Senate. No wonder Turnbull yesterday was saying "treat your vote as the one that decided the election". It could well be.
I guess now I'm officially unable to work this election due to work, I can have my say in places like this!
We have the Liberals seeking re-election on a platform of jobs and growth, yet since last year, 60,000 full time jobs have gone. Since they came to office, part time employment has massively outpaced full-time. By twice as much, in fact. Overall we have about 8 million people with full-time jobs, and a staggering 4 million in part time jobs. No wonder people's wages are growing at the lowest rates on record. I realise this isn't Communist Russia, and the government can't command the economy to do what it wants, but if you want to be elected on a platform of being wonderful economic managers, you need to be called out on it when you're, at best, ordinary for three years. Also, can someone explain to me what mandate Turnbull will have? He seems to stand for little else other than capping his admittedly brilliant working life with a stint as PM. God help him if the Libs barely scrape home. As the Chaser magazine cover put it : "You decide...who gets to be PM for 18 months". Unappealing.
My local Labor MP takes their seat for granted and is all but invisible in our community, and represents the hard left that's dragging the ALP away from the main game, and keeping them from office in my opinion. Tax and spend economics, open borders and identity politics. No thankyou.
Like 40% of Australians this election I just want to pre-poll vote and get it out of the way, but I seriously don't know who to vote for.
Edit : looks like I'm not alone. Both majors have Primary votes in the 30's according to Fairfax. The non-majors are polling a whopping 28%. This isn't just a protest. People are voting in record numbers right now. Labor's PV of 33% is too low to win outright, but you'd be brave to say the Libs are home either, with their shocking 39% -- about the level that triggered Abbott's removal. Hung parliament still looks in the mix to me. And, whoever wins, good luck getting things through the Senate. No wonder Turnbull yesterday was saying "treat your vote as the one that decided the election". It could well be.
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I love what trades are saying about faketradie such as
1) a real trade wouldn't wear a gold Rolex watch while working. Plumbers and electricians in particular agree with this. I also imagine that you wouldn't wear it while laying concrete etc
2) ditto for the gold bangle and also it is an OH & S issue
3) He isn't grubby enough
4) no one uses a ceramic cup on a worksite
5) his upper middle class way of speaking
1) a real trade wouldn't wear a gold Rolex watch while working. Plumbers and electricians in particular agree with this. I also imagine that you wouldn't wear it while laying concrete etc
2) ditto for the gold bangle and also it is an OH & S issue
3) He isn't grubby enough
4) no one uses a ceramic cup on a worksite
5) his upper middle class way of speaking
So, how many chances does McGuire get?
Apparently he is a really tradie but just happens to live on Sydney's north shore.
What an extraordinary act of self-harm from the British. Unfortunately they haven't just harmed themselves -- global markets got absolutely smoked today, and could well continue to be : it looks like another turbulent period of uncertainty ahead, at a time when the global economy doesn't need any more negative shocks. The impressive Cameron is gone -- paying the ultimate price for a spectacular political misjudgement, set to be replaced by an utter cretin, just as President Trump waits in the wings.
I'm wondering if the times have passed me by. I grew up in the days of Hawke and Keating, and everything I grew up believing about the world -- things that I just took for granted as desirable -- free trade providing more and cheaper goods, higher paying, higher skilled jobs, governments running balanced budgets, the ability to travel freely. People seem to be not just away from these things, but running from them. We're racing towards a far more insular, far less prosperous world.
Momentous times indeed. Not sure they're going to be better though.
I'm wondering if the times have passed me by. I grew up in the days of Hawke and Keating, and everything I grew up believing about the world -- things that I just took for granted as desirable -- free trade providing more and cheaper goods, higher paying, higher skilled jobs, governments running balanced budgets, the ability to travel freely. People seem to be not just away from these things, but running from them. We're racing towards a far more insular, far less prosperous world.
Momentous times indeed. Not sure they're going to be better though.
