The Down Under Lounge

[Botany Bay]

Movement at the station in the Greens party.

Milne out (pushed?). Di Natale in.

Labor would have been hoping for a Hanson-Young or someone equally unpalatable to the mainstream, but the measured Di Natale, I suspect, will be at least as successful as Milne.

The Labor primary vote, meantime, is drifting into unelectable territory.

Shorten, unbelievably, is equal with Abbott as preferred PM. The public are making their mind up about Shorten, and it seems they don't particularly like what they see.

The ALP must be desperately wishing they hadn't locked into Rudd's reforms that make the leader bulletproof in between elections.

Unless Hockey and Abbott butcher the budget (a possibility), I'm beginning to think Shorten won't get them there.

 

[Marc]

for something different I see the murdoch media has a bee in it's bonnet over the banks not passing on 100% of the latest interest rate cut.

I'm not sure where those bozos have been for at least the last 20 years because the banks have frequently failed to pass on the full cut yet the murdoch rags are acting like this is something new.

I also see the fail to see the media calling hockey out when he said that the cut in rates was good thing compared to his comments just prior to the 2013 election where he said such low interest rates were a sign of a struggling economy.

 

[Botany Bay]

Agreed -- the standard variable rate is exactly that -- variable at the complete discretion of the bank. But its easy fodder for overstretched mortgagors. If these people are worried at missing out on 5bps of a cut when rates are at 2%, look out in the years ahead when rates normalise and the banks really start to add some margin.

As for Hockey, I saw him (rightfully) getting pilloried across multiple channels last night for his about face on the ramifications of interest rate cuts at these levels. He was right back then -- any cut to the cash rate that takes us further into negative real interest rates signals the RBA's models tell them the economy is, or soon will be, in deep trouble, and that any concerns about the Sydney property bubble are secondary to their concern about the lack of business investment and its negative implications for employment.

As long as the economy sputters along, the Libs are vulnerable in my opinion, but Shorten has to lift his game. I'm not sure he's got it in him, but we'll see.

 

[jaz'a]

I agree with Hockey on paid parental leave. I don't see the need for women to get both. I imagine the vast majority of women who have access to paid maternity leave are in jobs paying above the minimum wage. That means companies that are providing Parental leave to make them an 'employer of choice' still need to offer it to be that. The claim that companies will pull out of parental leave as a result of this move therefore rings untrue for me.

I still think Hockey is an idiot overall but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

It is interesting that he just claimed it a 'victory' that on average Australians are paying less for their mortgages. It's probably true that we're paying less but it is no 'victory'.

 

[Marc]

I agree with Hockey on paid parental leave. I don't see the need for women to get both. I imagine the vast majority of women who have access to paid maternity leave are in jobs paying above the minimum wage. That means companies that are providing Parental leave to make them an 'employer of choice' still need to offer it to be that. The claim that companies will pull out of parental leave as a result of this move therefore rings untrue for me.

I still think Hockey is an idiot overall but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

It is interesting that he just claimed it a 'victory' that on average Australians are paying less for their mortgages. It's probably true that we're paying less but it is no 'victory'.

except hockey was telling porkies when you start looking into things.

The only way a woman would come close to double dipping was if the maternity leave provided by her employer was below the government stand in which case she'd receive a top up.

Hopefully this budget will seal the fate of hockey and abbott.

 

[Miss Chicken]

Can anyone tell me how this government plans to tax digital downloads? I buy my books from the American Amazon and Ame ican Audible, not the Australian Amazon and Australian Audible.

And I think it is shitty that we will have to pay extra in downloads from iTunes when iTunes already overcharge us - it costs $2.99 for an episode of a TV show whereas Americans only pay $1.99. Why doesn't the government something about that beyond the enquiry that has already been held?

Australians are going to pirate even more.

 

[jaz'a]

except hockey was telling porkies when you start looking into things.

The only way a woman would come close to double dipping was if the maternity leave provided by her employer was below the government stand in which case she'd receive a top up.

Hopefully this budget will seal the fate of hockey and abbott.

If a woman has paid parental leave with her employer under the new rules then she can still access the government paid parent leave scheme to top up if it's below the government rate. That hasn't changed.

I admit I haven't looked into the scheme under the old rules. Are you saying that under the old system, those who were getting more than what the government offered weren't able to access it?

In that case, what has changed? Absolutely nothing.

 

[jaz'a]

Can anyone tell me how this government plans to tax digital downloads? I buy my books from the American Amazon and Ame ican Audible, not the Australian Amazon and Australian Audible.

And I think it is shitty that we will have to pay extra in downloads from iTunes when iTunes already overcharge us - it costs $2.99 for an episode of a TV show whereas Americans only pay $1.99. Why doesn't the government something about that beyond the enquiry that has already been held?

Australians are going to pirate even more.

Purchase of media through itunes is already subject to GST. As is media through Google Play.

Whilst we do pay high prices compared to the US, our prices are lower than the UK.

The "australia tax" is what we pay as a result of our higher wages. It's not going to go away. It's basic economics and it really can't be legislated against. Companies will charge the highest price they can. Our higher wages (regardless of whether Apple pays them to any great extent) mean that we can wear higher prices. Nor should the government get in the position of setting prices any further than ensuring that the market is open to competition. At the moment we simply don't have the competition in that media market. What we really want to see is studios selling their rights on a global level rather than how they do it now. That will open up more competition and push prices down.

If Apple shouldn't be allowed to charge what the market can wear for their products, then to be consistent we would have to insist that Woolworths and Coles charge 2x (more really) what milk and bread costs in the US because they are paying the higher wages. They don't because the market guides the prices for them too and the greater competition means doing so would cost them their business.

 

[Miss Chicken]

what about downloads from Amazon and Audible? I am not paying GST on them and I have no intention of moving over to Australian Amazon and Australian Audible while I still can access the American stores.

 

[jaz'a]

I imagine they'll even have to add it on at check out on their US sites or force us onto the Australian sites. Make the content unavailable on the US sites if they know you're in Australia much like digital media is unavailable to us.

Call me a cynic, but if the Australian sites charge more (over and above the GST) and given they can blame someone else, I would expect that they'll do the latter.

I haven't actually heard anything about it though.

 

[Marc]

except hockey was telling porkies when you start looking into things.

The only way a woman would come close to double dipping was if the maternity leave provided by her employer was below the government stand in which case she'd receive a top up.

Hopefully this budget will seal the fate of hockey and abbott.

If a woman has paid parental leave with her employer under the new rules then she can still access the government paid parent leave scheme to top up if it's below the government rate. That hasn't changed.

I admit I haven't looked into the scheme under the old rules. Are you saying that under the old system, those who were getting more than what the government offered weren't able to access it?

In that case, what has changed? Absolutely nothing.

From what I've read on another site, pretty much.

As for the GST on stuff bought online this is a bunch of pricks on the treasury benches pandering to the business lobby.

Same if the GST has to be paid on imported items unter $1000.

It won't be the businesses that bare the cost it will be the tax payer. One of the reasons why it's never been implemented before is the cost do so is more than than what will be collected.

 

[Marc]

from the ABC a fact check on the government's claims about double dipping.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-15/double-dipping-parental-leave/6466068

 

[jaz'a]

from the ABC a fact check on the government's claims about double dipping.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-15/double-dipping-parental-leave/6466068

So what Mr Hockey said was happening was indeed happening. Women were taking both payment from the government and payment from their employer.

I took the term 'double dipping' to simply mean that they were taking both, not that they were doing so illegally. I didn't realise that Hockey considered what women were doing to be fraud. That's the first time I've seen that.

Whilst that may have been the intent of it when Labor introduced it I don't agree with it. Admittedly I prefer 'double dipping' to increasing help for childcare. I resent paying parental leave a lot less than I do paying for others to go to work.

 

[Botany Bay]

New Fairfax poll :

PV : Coalition 43% ALP 35%
2PP : 50/50
Preferred prime minister : Abbott 44% Shorten 39%

Extraordinary turnaround for Abbott.

Such a volatile electorate.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if we're back at the polls before Grand Final day.

 

[Marc]

New Fairfax poll :

PV : Coalition 43% ALP 35%
2PP : 50/50
Preferred prime minister : Abbott 44% Shorten 39%

Extraordinary turnaround for Abbott.

Such a volatile electorate.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if we're back at the polls before Grand Final day.

Except in the same period we've had the Galaxy poll come out that has Labor up 52/48 and Newspoll that has them up 53/47.

IPSOS jumps around like a cat on a hot tine roof.

 

[Miss Chicken]

In the news today - the biological father of baby Gammy, the little boy with Downs Syndrome who was abandoned in Thailand, is now trying to access some of the money raised for Gammy.

 

[Botany Bay]

New Fairfax poll :

PV : Coalition 43% ALP 35%
2PP : 50/50
Preferred prime minister : Abbott 44% Shorten 39%

Extraordinary turnaround for Abbott.

Such a volatile electorate.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if we're back at the polls before Grand Final day.

Except in the same period we've had the Galaxy poll come out that has Labor up 52/48 and Newspoll that has them up 53/47.

IPSOS jumps around like a cat on a hot tine roof.

Take the avearage then. Its a decisive move back to the Coalition and Abbott however you slice it.

I'm not saying it's a good thing. It's quite scary how bribeable the electorate is. I'd rate this year's budget a ten out of ten for politics, but in terms of policy we are now playing a very dangerous game, riding our luck and hoping we can hang onto our AAA credit rating rather than do anything to convince bondholders we are serious about managing our government debt. For example, from 2021 we will now be suddenly counting earnings of the Future Fund as budget revenue, allowing Hockey to say we'll balance the budget by then.

No, this budget was a triumph of personal interest ahead of the national interest, and another damning sign our political system is failing to deliver what's right for our country at just the wrong moment.

They must be tempted to go early. Clear out the Senate. Take on Shorten before he's torn down by Plibersek. Get it done just in case we do tip into recession in the next 12 months or lose that AAA credit rating as some are predicting.

It sure feels like an election campaign here at the moment. The next few months of polling will tell the tale.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

In the news today - the biological father of baby Gammy, the little boy with Downs Syndrome who was abandoned in Thailand, is now trying to access some of the money raised for Gammy.

What a piece of shit.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

It's freezing, what is this hell

 

[Miss Chicken]

By freezing do you mean below zero?