The Down Under Lounge

[Australis]

What amazes me is Abbot's arrogance, saying "I am the best man for the job". That is a statement completely out of touch with reality. AND his constant insistence that getting rid of the carbon tax was A Good Thing. Stunning to me that anyone could say that.

 

[eyeresist]

I'm really surprised that backbenchers are talking publicly - they must be real nincompoops. Surely they realise how embarrassing it would be to repeat the Rudd/Gillard fiasco they spent years decrying?
Not wanting to give the Coalition advice, but if Tony can't behave himself they should basically hold a gun to his head, and make him give the cabinet authority over every decision (effectively making him a puppet PM), if he doesn't want a humiliating dismissal.

 

[Botany Bay]

I interpreted including the Carbon Tax in his speech yesterday was a pointed reminder to the backbench of Turnbull's strong support of carbon pricing in some form. With Shorten announcing Carbon pricing will be part of the ALP's 2016 platform, a vote for Turnbull in any ballot ensures carbon pricing has bipartisan support.

I'd say the carbon pricing issue is the only thing stopping Turnbull from being PM. Will the hard right vote for a leader who supports a carbon tax? That's no doubt what they're grappling with at the moment. If they can't bring themselves to do it, Morrison comes into play.

 

[eyeresist]

^ First they have to convince themselves that global warming isn't just a communist conspiracy. They are not that smart...

 

[Botany Bay]

Surely they realise how embarrassing it would be to repeat the Rudd/Gillard fiasco they spent years decrying?

I'm sure they do, but at the end of the day they are there to win votes, and there are federal polls kicking around showing the ALP ahead 57-43 -- which would result in an annihilation unprecedented in Australian political history.

How has it come to this? People just cannot stomach Abbott as their PM -- one poll on Sunday had his approval rating at 29%. Less than 1/3 of Australians approve of him. I don't think even Gillard went that low.

Yes, it's brutal, and you'd have to be pretty cold not to feel some sympathy for Abbott at the moment, but the cold reality is, here's no coming back from numbers like these. And nothing in these numbers suggests the Australian public will have any objections to his removal, as was the case with Rudd.

 

[Marc]

Surely they realise how embarrassing it would be to repeat the Rudd/Gillard fiasco they spent years decrying?

I'm sure they do, but at the end of the day they are there to win votes, and there are federal polls kicking around showing the ALP ahead 57-43 -- which would result in an annihilation unprecedented in Australian political history.

How has it come to this? People just cannot stomach Abbott as their PM -- one poll on Sunday had his approval rating at 29%. Less than 1/3 of Australians approve of him. I don't think even Gillard went that low.

Yes, it's brutal, and you'd have to be pretty cold not to feel some sympathy for Abbott at the moment, but the cold reality is, here's no coming back from numbers like these. And nothing in these numbers suggests the Australian public will have any objections to his removal, as was the case with Rudd.

Gillard went lower according to newspoll

Lowest approval ratings record by Newspoll
Keating 17% (just after the 1993 election)
Gillard 26% (Feb 2012)
Hawke 27% (just before he was replaced by keating)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspoll#Lowest_approval_rating

I see that Hockey is praising the cutting of interest rates but in mid 2013, not long before the election, he was saying (paraphrased) that low interest rates were the sign of a sick economy.

 

[Miss Chicken]

As someone who has a bit of money in the bank but who isn't buying a house I wish interest rates were higher. At least I started my fix term deposit when interest rates were 6% but I have certainly have notice how the rates on the rest of my savings has dropped.

 

[Marc]

As someone who has a bit of money in the bank but who isn't buying a house I wish interest rates were higher. At least I started my fix term deposit when interest rates were 6% but I have certainly have notice how the rates on the rest of my savings has dropped.

yeah the ABC has repoted that retirees who would be a similar position to you vis a vis savings are tad uncomfortable with the way interest rates are going.

 

[Botany Bay]

This is a really good point. Self-funded retirees are another traditional Liberal voting block who have a grievance against the government. Negative real interest rates in Australia -- something I thought I'd never see. The 2013 version of Hockey is correct -- the economy is in trouble.

My sympathies Miss Chicken, I know many people in the same boat. Unfortunately, we're looking down the barrel of another of another cut or two, and I genuinely feel for people who've done the right thing and saved for their retirement now facing a lot of uncertainty.

It sends a shiver down my spine to see retirees being confronted with some very seductive, but highly dangerous investment products at the moment in their hunt for yield.

If anyone comes near you spruiking high yield anything at the moment, I suggest caution and independent financial advice.

 

[Miss Chicken]

I don't think I have enough money in the bank (only about $35, 000) to make me want to take any risks at all. Currently I am getting about $1600 a year in interest but that is likely to drop to maybe around $1100 a year once my fixed term deposit has finished. $500 a year will be quite a drop as my total income from my pension and my interest is only about $22,000 a year.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

I am depressed about the Bali 9 men getting executed very soon.

I think if they did not have non-anglo names Australia would give more shits.

What were they, 21 when they made their mistakes?

Very sad.

 

[Botany Bay]

Yeah, I agree. Very sad.

Slightly disturbing that a majority of respondents in a poll last month, when asked if an Australian should be allowed to be executed for drug smuggling overseas, responded...yes.

This poll has been used as a justification by the Indonesians to proceed with the executions. "Well...a majority of Australians support our decision..."

The death penalty has no place in civilized society. I haven't set foot in Bali for 15 years and I doubt I ever will again.

 

[Australis]

The thought occurs about the Aussies that didn't take the heroin they would have brought into Australia, which might have killed innocent people too. But no, I don't think execution is the right thing, and Indonesia is just being bloody -minded. It's a sad situation all round. They are paying for stupid mistakes made when they were young, and that could have been any of us. I'll stop now, it's getting me down.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

Yeah, I agree. Very sad.

Slightly disturbing that a majority of respondents in a poll last month, when asked if an Australian should be allowed to be executed for drug smuggling overseas, responded...yes.

This poll has been used as a justification by the Indonesians to proceed with the executions. "Well...a majority of Australians support our decision..."

The death penalty has no place in civilized society. I haven't set foot in Bali for 15 years and I doubt I ever will again.

I did not know that about the poll, that is horrifying. And I doubt it will stop newspapers from conducting similar polls even if it's shown to have such a perilous effect.

The thought occurs about the Aussies that didn't take the heroin they would have brought into Australia, which might have killed innocent people too.

And if that's your concern this particular batch of heroin was stopped from entering Australia the day they were caught. It's that kind of opining about hypothetical overdoses that we have hypothetically been saved from that you hear all the time from people who aren't really all that concerned about these executions. I'm not saying you're in that group Australis, just that it's something people say to give some kind of positive spin on Indonesia's drug laws and it makes no sense at all.

As to the poll, god people are petty and vindictive. I wonder if they would feel the same way about bringing in executions in Aus for drug offenses, the way people talk about "bloody idiots, deserve what the get.." I think that might be the case. It's an us and them mentality, those seedy people vs me, the law abider.

Heroin droughts just lead to more meth anyway. People I've known who use have no trouble getting stuff any time they want, and some of them have been using for decades.

 

[eyeresist]

I disagree with the death penalty for drug trafficking, but think Indonesia has the right to apply its own laws in its own country.

 

[Marc]

I disagree with the death penalty for drug trafficking, but think Indonesia has the right to apply its own laws in its own country.

it's not like Indonesia hides the fact they execute drug smugglers. You have to be prapsred to face the consequences if you what to engage in drug smuggling.

They aren't be the first Australians executed for drug smuggling but the worst part is that people won't learn.

But wow people are getting desperate with on academic saying that Triple-J will be partially to blame.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-...r-bali-nine-execution-campaigner-says/6072966

What a fuckwit.

Nothing to do with Triple-J.

If appeals from the Australian government aren't going to change their mind, legal appeals in Indonesia have failed, reports on an opinion poll done by an Australia radio station really won't change things.

 

[jaz'a]

I disagree with the death penalty for drug trafficking, but think Indonesia has the right to apply its own laws in its own country.

That's how I feel. Australians know the penalty for moving drugs through Indonesia. They chose to try it anyway - and as I understand it this was their second time for these two. They thought the risk was worth it. Now this is the consequence they knew was possible.

Does that Triple J poll actually show support for the death penalty or does it show support for allowing other countries to set their own laws and their own sentences? I would answer in the positive to that poll. Not because the death penalty is the right response to drug smuggling but because Indonesia gets to choose their rules and their sentencing. We get to obey those laws when we visit, stay the hell out or accept the consequences if we're caught.

Australia should get itself involved in the justice affairs in another country is when one of two things is present: 1) The law is unjust. or 2) there is doubt about guilt. I don't see how either of those apply here. We might not agree with the penalty, but we can't claim that having a law against smuggling heroin is unjust. Nor is there any doubt about guilt. So Australia should stay out of it.

All that said, I think there is some truth to the claim that polls like these can impact the outcome - or rather the attitude shown by the poll has an impact. The problem here though isn't so much what the poll said, but what it didn't say. Saying "we don't care" keeps the status quo. No poll at all would have done the same thing. A poll which said the opposite, that may have had an impact. Bali is a very popular destination (duh) and if the vast majority of Australians were against these executions I think Bali at least would be putting political pressure on for clemency. Too much money is at stake if Australians as a whole decided to stop visiting over this. These sort of polls show that isn't likely to happen and as such there is no need for Bali to get upset. The reality is that executions are usually a political thing and this time is no different. President Joko Widodo made it very clear during the recent election that he'd be hard on drug smugglers. So far he hasn't been given a political reason to change from that course. We'd need more than one poll saying we've opposed for it to have an impact though - and by the time Triple J got around to doing one it would already be common news that we were pissed about it.

It would be good of Indonesia to show clemency in this case, but not because they're Australians. These men seem to be doing a lot of good in the jail in terms of helping other prisoners. I would hope that would be a reason for clemency no matter what country someone was from. It won't, because of the political aspect which is disappointing.

I feel very much for their families. I can't imagine what their parents are going through.

 

[Australis]

And if that's your concern this particular batch of heroin was stopped from entering Australia the day they were caught. It's that kind of opining about hypothetical overdoses that we have hypothetically been saved from that you hear all the time from people who aren't really all that concerned about these executions. I'm not saying you're in that group Australis, just that it's something people say to give some kind of positive spin on Indonesia's drug laws and it makes no sense at all.

There are some who would have got through, though.

No, you're not wrong, and these guys have turned their lives around. I know that if a child of mine did something so stupid, I wouldn't be sitting around going, "o well, how sad, too bad", and we've all done stupid things to a greater or lesser degree. It's also frustrating that Indonesia has no clemency with the citizens of other countries - of the 8 on death row, 1 is Indonesian.

Once I may have been more hardline about this, but that isn't humane or compassionate or forward-looking, and Indonesia should know that. But they don't, apparently.

 

[Marc]

Liberal MP has said he's going to move a spill motion at the Liberal's party meeting on Tuesday.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-06/mp-seeks-leadership-spill/6075470

I've read there's a second for motion.

I suspect for some in the party he's just become public enemy #1 but it's gonna get interesting. All the vitrol that got flung back at Labor about their leadership changes is gonna back.

Abbott barely makes it 18 months of a 3yr term. At least Rudd got to 3yrs 8 months.

Though if Abbott survives, some thing it's unlikely there will be a policy change and the Libs will continue to barrel off the cliff.

And if he loses and stays on the back bench he might try and go for the leadership again (historical precedent).

 

[eyeresist]

Though if Abbott survives, some think it's unlikely there will be a policy change and the Libs will continue to barrel off the cliff.

That's an interesting thought. Threatening Tony with a challenge might make him behave, but if he survives a challenge (likely, given the embarrassment of the alternative) he might decide he doesn't need to change after all. I'm kind of hoping that's what happens now!