The Down Under Lounge

[jaz'a]

Ahh thanks...that explains it. But still, an unusually conservative state you'd have to say.

Word is Newman is gone daddy gone. Apparently he WON'T be parachuted in somewhere else. Tim Nicholls will be premier.

Queenslands swing voters really seem to vote as a block. We very much have a love/hate relationship with our party leaders and by extension their party. We either absolutely love them (Peter Beattie been a prime example) or absolutely hate

I've had enough of Newman. All he did as Lord Mayor was build bridges across the river. Unfortunately he got an easy pass to do that because Brisbane council changes hands with even less regularity than the State government. Now another 3 years as premier... he was arrogant as Lord Mayor and he's been worse as premier.

According to ABC's vote compass, the residents of Ashgrove expect Campbell to hold the seat. That does contradict what both the bookies and the polls are saying which give a solid win to Labor. Apparently it was very good at predicting the outcome for the Victorian state election. I've always found Ashgrove to be an interesting seat. It's always been a fairly safe Labor seat until last election but having lived there I always expected the opposite.

To date the LNP seem to be backing the Premier. No body has jumped ship and suggested alternate leaders. All speculation has either come from Labor or PUP. Unless you've seen something I haven't - entirely possible. I did do some work at work today.

 

[Botany Bay]

He certainly seems to have rubbed a lot of Queenslanders the wrong way...the words "arrogant" and "combative" are thrown at him a lot.

I think you have to give him some credit for not taking the soft option and changing seats after the last election. He's going to get annihilated in Ashgrove. Rumours are flying around of a 15% swing against him.

What do you think of the exit poll showing ALP at 54-46?

 

[Miss Chicken]

Terrible news - a 12 week old baby, his or her 18 month old brother and their parents have been struck by lightning outside a polling booth on the Gold Coast. All four are in a critical condition. It seems that the lightning directly hit the father and travelled into the 18 month old who he was holding.

 

[Botany Bay]

God that's awful. I hope they're okay.

An absolutely extraordinary result seems to be brewing in QLD. The ALP are going to go within a whisker of winning this. In fact, several commentators are calling an ALP minority government the most likely outcome.

If this continues, you can expect a bloodbath in the weeks ahead on the conservative side. Abbott will be watching this in horror. He is in big, big trouble.

 

[Miss Chicken]

The father has died.

 

[Botany Bay]

That's just horrible...

I have no access to the ABC covergae here in Sydney, unfortunately, but I just heard their election analyst par excellence, Antony Green, has called an ALP WIN.

You can forget Abbott surviving till the election. He'll be lucky to make it to March.

What extraordinary times we live in. "Volatile" doesn't even begin to describe the voters of Australia these days. We're in a whole new world since 2010.

 

[jaz'a]

I am absolutely giddy right now. We might win. I won't call it yet, but we have a chance.

Either way, Newman is gone. That is a win regardless of who has government.

He certainly seems to have rubbed a lot of Queenslanders the wrong way...the words "arrogant" and "combative" are thrown at him a lot.

I think you have to give him some credit for not taking the soft option and changing seats after the last election. He's going to get annihilated in Ashgrove. Rumours are flying around of a 15% swing against him.

What do you think of the exit poll showing ALP at 54-46?

He is arrogant. That arrogance has probably cost him more than his policies have. Queenslanders are Aussies and aussies don't like arrogance. Granted, his policies were arrogant. Labor held government for most of the previous 20 years. To come in on their first term and try to force such right-wing policies onto the state was never going to go well.

Given what happened at the polls today, it doesn't surprise me. I've heard the claim that if the polls are busy in the morning, then people want a change of government. That's held true at every election I've paid attention to. I postal voted due to work, but the polls were busy. There were line ups prior to them even opening. Which suggests a huge swing against the LNP. That is coming to pass.

I've accepted the pre-election polls on a state level that I've seen in the media. Those polls didn't line up with what I saw where I am. What I've seen is huge huge support for Labor. There are signs in front of houses in every single street. There are people on the side of the road. People in shopping centres. Every one is out, they've all out for Labor and they're had a very good reception. Yes some of that is simply staunch labor supporters doing everything they can but I have never seen the level of support on the streets before, at any election. It's why I was confident that my electorate was going labor. I simply assumed what is happening in my electorate isn't representative of what is happening state-wide because my electorate is traditionally a safe labor seat - 2012 was the first time since it's latest incarnation (1986) that's it's fallen to the Liberals.

 

[jaz'a]

I'm going to double post because I forgot to submit the other one before I went and had dinner.

That's just horrible...

I have no access to the ABC covergae here in Sydney, unfortunately, but I just heard their election analyst par excellence, Antony Green, has called an ALP WIN.

You can forget Abbott surviving till the election. He'll be lucky to make it to March.

What extraordinary times we live in. "Volatile" doesn't even begin to describe the voters of Australia these days. We're in a whole new world since 2010.

This isn't actually showing volatility. It's simply righting the ship. We've going back to the situation we had prior to 2012. A labor government with a strong liberal opposition. That is normal for Queensland. Labor isn't getting a landslide here. Some swings are huge but they're not more than the swings we saw against labor in 2012.

I'm watching ABC - they haven't called it yet. At least I haven't heard it. Perhaps I was talking over it. Very good coverage, but annoyed I didn't realise that my remote was out of batteries. I have no idea what the other channels are saying and I like to channel surf a bit during elections. Looking at Nine online, it's interesting the difference. They've called a lot less seats for the LNP than ABC. ABC has LNP on 37, Labor 43. Nine only has the LNP on 28 to 37 for Labor.

They have Tim Nicholls on ABC and it's fun to watch him make excuses for the LNP.

 

[Botany Bay]

The ship sure has been righted -- and Abbott might just about to throw up over the side -- the biggest electoral win in Australian history looks like it's been un-done in one term. It's absolutely unprecedented, and extraordinary. The old adage that Aussies give their governments more than one term is absolutely out the window, and that's why I think it's safe to say Abbott is done for after this.

Why the amazing reversal from 2012? According to Graham Richardson "because both (QLD) elections feature one central ingredient : a very unpopular premier".

Newman has conceded Ashgrove.

I'm watching Sky, who seem to be sticking with "too close to call", but see the ALP as closer to forming a government than the LNP. A final result looks days away.

 

[Australis]

This morning:

Newspoll this morning has the 2PP at 52-48 to the LNP, with primaries at 41% LNP, 37% ALP.

Boy, did they get it wrong.

This is huge, and it couldn't have happened to a better bloke.

The Gold Coast lightning strike story is awful, just awfuk, I can't imagine.

ETA:

Newman has conceded Ashgrove.

Yessssssss!

 

[jaz'a]

Why the amazing reversal from 2012? According to Graham Richardson "because both (QLD) elections feature one central ingredient : a very unpopular premier".

According to nine (can't recall who said it) the LNP focus groups over the last week showed very clearly that it was Newman that has cost them the election. Mention any of the big ticket items (asset sales been the main) with any one elses name and people were open. Mention asset sales and Newman and people said they didn't like him and they didn't trust him.

I'm watching Sky, who seem to be sticking with "too close to call", but see the ALP as closer to forming a government than the LNP. A final result looks days away.

Antony Green on ABC is predicting Labor majority government. Just. By one seat,.

45 to Labor.
41 to LNP
3 to others.

Four of those are still too close too call, so it could still change.

Nine has it 40 to 31. They've been very hesitant to call seats. There are some that going by numbers and % counted I think are safe to call. They're not calling them. It's interesting because nine is usually more on the ball. I wonder if they're trying to draw it out so they can keep the viewers. A lot of people would have turned off very early in 2012.

 

[jaz'a]

That family... the children are 12 weeks and 18 months. I can't imagine the horror his wife is going through tonight. I can't even begin to really understand what she is experiencing.

 

[Botany Bay]

Yeah, there are no words...

Again, stuck with only Sky here in Sydney, but I am now hearing the ABC have called an ALP majority of one seat, making Annastacia Palaszczuk the first female to lead a state opposition to government. Extraordinary achievement.

Newman : "My political career is over". Concedes defeat in Ashgrove, but not the election in a short, gracious speech. The guy looked pretty happy to be leaving the public eye to be honest.

 

[Australis]

ABC News 24 is available on free to air, isn't it? I have no idea.

I'm very pleased. About time the Tories got a slap in the face.

 

[Botany Bay]

Not on my cheapo Foxtel package, sadly.

The Tories have taken a baseball bat to the groin here. Big bloodbath ahead, methinks.

I'm interested in what these extraordinary convulsions say about the electorate. Richo reckons in the past you could count on elections being decided by 10% of the voters who swing from party to party. He now reckons this number is closer to 30%. There are fewer "rusted ons" these days, he says. Liberal numbers man Michael Kroger puts it down to perpetual nervousness over job security in Australia -- Newman's culling 12,000 public servants was just too much in one go.

 

[jaz'a]

So what is everyone using for a browser these days?

I've used opera for about a year now and it's been great. For some reason it's started running really slow the last week. I can't work out why. I've checked out everything I can think of. Nothing has changed. It's driving me crazy. I really like how they do their bookmarks and their main start page. I'm rather bummed.

I'm using IE now as my only other installed browser and it's running at the speed I've come to expect from opera.

 

[Miss Chicken]

The latest news is that the mother and children are still in hospital in a stable condition with minor injuries. When paramedics arrived at the scene the 18 month old was unconscious and not breathing but the paramedics revived him before taking him to hospital.

 

[Miss Chicken]

Nowadays I am only using my iPad not my laptop - I use Safari on my iPad.

 

[Botany Bay]

Good news about the kids at least.

Browser = Firefox on laptop and Chrome on phone.

And in more good news for Tony Abbott, the Tele has the ALP leading 57-43 2PP federally. Trying to see a scenario how he survives as PM, and really struggling.

 

[Botany Bay]

Palaszczuk : "I am hopeful we will be able to form a government."

Meantime, federal QLD MP Jane Prentice has apparently refused to say whether Abbott should remain leader, describing his Monday Press Club speech as "make or break". All the good stuff is on ABC tonight it seems . You get the feeling this could blow up any minute.

Interesting times.