Dune 2018 (19,20,21...)

[Kai "the spy"]

That's actually the thing, though. The director of Elf and Iron Man, the writers of Transformers and nuTrek, and the movie literally titled "Cowboys & Aliens", and the thing the movie suffers from the most is that it took itself too seriously. How the fuck was that even an option?

 

[CaptainJonathanArcher]

I'm very, very, very optimistic, but I've learned that even having a great cast, with a great director doesn't always guarantee a great film, so I'm not going to start talking about it being great 'til I've seen it.

You raised very valid points.

 

[Tom Hendricks]

I love Dune but I think the HBO Max & Theatrical release is the best option. I believe even without COVID, the chance of Dune being a financial hit is tenuous at best.

I think it has a better chance at being a hit by being streamed and released in theaters. More people are opt to watch something they are iffy about watching at home then going to the theater. Now with COVID people are even less going to take the chance on a movie like Dune.

 

[Shaka Zulu]

I believe even without COVID, the chance of Dune being a financial hit is tenuous at best.

This because of the very same people who say they want to see intelligent science fiction movies instead of the usual space opera sci-fi or the ones from the superhero sub-genre, but as soon as said pictures are made and released, they don't see them, and then they fail at the box office (case in point, this particular director's past project. )

Unlike you, I think that it would've be a hit at the box office, and to be frank, I think that your methodology for why it wouldn't/won't be a hit at the box office to be on very shaky ground.

I think it has a better chance at being a hit by being streamed and released in theaters. More people are opt to watch something they are iffy about watching at home then going to the theater. Now with COVID people are even less going to take the chance on a movie like Dune.

The fact that a vaccine now exists isn't enough for you or others to try to get out and see a movie? This more than confirms Villenuve's statement and anger at this happening.

 

[fireproof78]

This because of the very same people who say they want to see intelligent science fiction movies instead of the usual space opera sci-fi or the ones from the superhero sub-genre, but as soon as said pictures are made and released, they don't see them, and then they fail at the box office (case in point, this particular director's past project. )

Sad but true People talk about wanting a certain product but don't always buy it. It's frustrating part of business to try to guage the market.

 

[wayoung]

The fact that a vaccine now exists isn't enough for you or others to try to get out and see a movie? This more than confirms Villenuve's statement and anger at this happening.

Seems like sociologists are leaning towards an explosion of activity and spending while others are saying that people will be too paranoid to do the old things that loved.

Considering how many people are still doing shit despite the pandemic (or are idiots who think it's fake) and my own desire to get out and DO SOMETHING I'm leaning towards the explosion.

 

[Mudd]

The fact that a vaccine now exists isn't enough for you or others to try to get out and see a movie?

"The fact that a vaccine now exists" isn't sufficient for most thinking people to make plans to do any specific things yet.

 

[JD]

Right now maybe, but once it becomes available for everyone, people will start going back to the theaters and things like that.
Hell, there are still people going out to parties and things now, even without the vaccine. My neighbor had a party on NYE, now I only heard, so I don't know how many masks were worn, but just having a party all is pretty bad right now. And every weekend there are big groups of maskless people having parties and get togethers at the park by my house. And I still see maskless people out shopping all the time.
If they can't stop people from doing this shit with a vaccine, you can't convince me that people aren't going to be rushing out the second they are vaccinated.

 

[wayoung]

Due to lockdown preventing me from celebrating NYE with anyone not in my household Paul, Duncan and I decided to have a bit of a party.

It was a bust.

Paul immediately locked himself in my spice cupboard and Duncan got smashed, leaving me to watch bad movies and build lego by myself all night.

I would have invited Jessica, but thought it would be weird to make Paul party with his mom and the last time Duncan drank around her it did not go well...

 

[JD]

Only two of your images came up.

 

[StarCruiser]

They're the same images - somehow duplicated...

 

[wayoung]

Yeah, I hate the image posting here. I somehow always screw it up. When I posted they wouldn't work and when I edited I couldn't delete the non functioning ones just try again.

 

[arch101]

WW84 is doing pretty well considering the circumstances. The big worry for Dune is that WW84 is a superhero film, and they have had pretty broad appeal in recent years. Dune is a niche sci-fi film. I would expect it to do half what WW84 does. Warners will have to look at those final WW84 numbers and decide what the cost of marketing a theatrical-only release for Dune is worth to them to get an acceptable ROI.

 

[wayoung]

WW84 is doing pretty well considering the circumstances. The big worry for Dune is that WW84 is a superhero film, and they have had pretty broad appeal in recent years. Dune is a niche sci-fi film. I would expect it to do half what WW84 does. Warners will have to look at those final WW84 numbers and decide what the cost of marketing a theatrical-only release for Dune is worth to them to get an acceptable ROI.

None of that is true.

1) After a decent for the situation opening, WW84 crashed and burned last weekend, down by 70%. It's grand total is now $28 mil. Whether that's because everyone who is willing to go to a theatre in the middle of a pandemic went to see it when it opened or the bad word of mouth and the bad critical reviews caused the drop is unknown.

The only place it is doing well is Australia.

2). "Dune will make half WW84 makes" is a nonsense statement. No, it's not as well known as wonder woman, but it's still the best selling sci fi novel in history, has been topping the Amazon charts again since the trailer dropped, stars the hottest cast in Hollywood today, is directed by one of the hottest directors (who considers it the best film he has ever made), and, as planned, was supposed to be the start of its own kind of cinematic universe with TV shows and films. The people making it obviously expected this to be a billionish dollar film (and it is called such in many of the letters/articles written by insiders since the WB/HBOMax announcement) . It very well may bomb covid or no covid. It's a risk. But while your and others personal expectations are that it would never be financially successful, the people making it obviously think otherwise. Plus, October will not be Dec 2020. What it will be no one knows, but no one thinks it will be as bad as the current situation. Most places are hopeful the vaccines will be fully distributed by then - although, again, anything can happen.

3). WB invested only 1/4 of the budget for Dune. That's why they want it on HBOMax. They get paid twice for every rental on HBOmax. They would make their money on it. That's why it's set to go there. It's everyone else BUT WB who loses money on HBO max - the people who actually paid for and made the film. WB doesn't want theatrical. They aren't re-evaluating ROI on Dune based on WW84. Wonder Woman is part of an in house money printing machine. Dune is a distribution deal. They're completely different financial situation for WB.

 

[Marc]

None of that is true.

1) After a decent for the situation opening, WW84 crashed and burned last weekend, down by 70%. It's grand total is now $28 mil. Whether that's because everyone who is willing to go to a theatre in the middle of a pandemic went to see it when it opened or the bad word of mouth and the bad critical reviews caused the drop is unknown.

The only place it is doing well is Australia.

2). "Dune will make half WW84 makes" is a nonsense statement. No, it's not as well known as wonder woman, but it's still the best selling sci fi novel in history, has been topping the Amazon charts again since the trailer dropped, stars the hottest cast in Hollywood today, is directed by one of the hottest directors (who considers it the best film he has ever made), and, as planned, was supposed to be the start of its own kind of cinematic universe with TV shows and films. The people making it obviously expected this to be a billionish dollar film (and it is called such in many of the letters/articles written by insiders since the WB/HBOMax announcement) . It very well may bomb covid or no covid. It's a risk. But while your and others personal expectations are that it would never be financially successful, the people making it obviously think otherwise. Plus, October will not be Dec 2020. What it will be no one knows, but no one thinks it will be as bad as the current situation. Most places are hopeful the vaccines will be fully distributed by then - although, again, anything can happen.

3). WB invested only 1/4 of the budget for Dune. That's why they want it on HBOMax. They get paid twice for every rental on HBOmax. They would make their money on it. That's why it's set to go there. It's everyone else BUT WB who loses money on HBO max - the people who actually paid for and made the film. WB doesn't want theatrical. They aren't re-evaluating ROI on Dune based on WW84. Wonder Woman is part of an in house money printing machine. Dune is a distribution deal. They're completely different financial situation for WB.

The other problem for releases on HBOMAX is that that high quality rips will appear on the torrent sites very quickly which can quickly eat into a potential market and that probably affected WonderWoman 1984. In the past people would have gone to the cinema or make do with dodgy cam pirate recordings.

 

[wayoung]

The other problem for releases on HBOMAX is that that high quality rips will appear on the torrent sites very quickly which can quickly eat into a potential market and that probably affected WonderWoman 1984. In the past people would have gone to the cinema or make do with dodgy cam pirate recordings.

Wonder Woman set the record for online streaming subscriptions/payments. The previous record was Tolls world tour at the start of the Pandemic, and trolls made only 70% as many subscriptions/extra rental fees. WW84 is a bonafide hit on streaming. That's why WB wants to move Dune there. They'll make their money.

Whether or not piracy affects financial takes is a difficult question, and one that can't easily be answered. The industry has claimed for years it costs them billions, based on the idea that every person downloading it watches it with so many others, and that's one ticket and one disc not sold to each of them. Independent research generally finds the industry numbers to be hugely inflated, that piracy doesn't really cost that much, as most of the people doing it are are those who a) wouldn't pay to see the movie to begin with or b) have already paid and then fall I to category A again - sure they'll pirate and watch it again, but they weren't going to pay a 2nd time anyway, so the overall cost to the industry is nothing. Some studies find it drives sales as people under category A will then buy the movie after watching it.

Piracy in general has cratered with the advent of streaming services, with p2p downloads a fraction of what they used to be back in the day. People would rather pay a small amount to watch whatever they want than have the hassle of torrenting it for free. Same as happened with music.

Of course, all those studies are also in a pre covid world, without day 1 simultaneous theatrical & streaming options.

What it comes down it is nobody knows anything. All past precedents are irrelevant. The only thing for certain is that Legendary and the cast that gave up salary for points can't make their money without a legit theatrical release. A 3rd party distributor making all the profit doesn't do it for them. And then the franchise dies.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

The other problem for releases on HBOMAX is that that high quality rips will appear on the torrent sites very quickly which can quickly eat into a potential market and that probably affected WonderWoman 1984. In the past people would have gone to the cinema or make do with dodgy cam pirate recordings.

Maybe but I doubt most punters have the knowledge or patience to download a pirated version even if they are happy to do so from a moral standpoint. However, I might well be wrong. I could but I choose not to.

 

[FPAlpha]

Maybe but I doubt most punters have the knowledge or patience to download a pirated version even if they are happy to do so from a moral standpoint. However, I might well be wrong. I could but I choose not to.

You don't even have to do personal illegal acts like downloading a movie, there's tons of streaming sites that upload a movie/TV show to their servers as soon as they hit filesharing circles. In many countries watching such streams is not illegal in itself because you are not providing illegally obtained copies of the content.

One thing is for sure - Covid has and will shake up the movie business fundamentally. When even big chains are reaching the end of their stamina with no end of the pandemic in site it is uncertain how all of this will resume once the pandemic basically ends and becomes really just another flu.

Studious and distributors will have to react and maybe WB were just the first ones through the door (and they always get a bloody nose), once people really get used to watching new movies from the comfort of their home there may not be a comeback for theatre chains.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

I wouldn't go anywhere near those streaming sites.

Here's How Illegal Streaming Services Can Land You In Trouble (fossbytes.com)

 

[wayoung]

Hollywood Reporter is saying Legendary & WB are close to a deal on Godzilla (previous reports had said Legendary was looking to get $250 mil, which is a little more than what Netflix had offered and Legendary had tried to accept, before WB blocked the transaction) and that, while they still have quite a bit to go with regards to Dune, it is looking more likely than not they will also reach a deal regarding it instead of litigation. WB may be blinking with day 1 digital for Dune, especially since they have apparently no rights to use images from Dune to advertise HBO Max, and are in violation of contract in having done so. How big the theatrical window will be is the biggest question.

Not in the article, there have also been rumours that WB wants Chalamet to join the mainstream DCEU (vs the offshoot DCEU Pattinson films) as Terry McGinnis under Keaton's Bruce Wayne in direct to streaming films. Again, these are just rumours, but if true it would make them a little more willing to bend on terms with regards to Dune, to make Chalamet happy.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/a...resolve-clash-over-godzilla-vs-kong-exclusive