Dune 2018 (19,20,21...)

Discussion in 'Science Fiction & Fantasy' started by wayoung, Dec 22, 2016.

  1. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Wonder Woman set the record for online streaming subscriptions/payments. The previous record was Tolls world tour at the start of the Pandemic, and trolls made only 70% as many subscriptions/extra rental fees. WW84 is a bonafide hit on streaming. That's why WB wants to move Dune there. They'll make their money.

    Whether or not piracy affects financial takes is a difficult question, and one that can't easily be answered. The industry has claimed for years it costs them billions, based on the idea that every person downloading it watches it with so many others, and that's one ticket and one disc not sold to each of them. Independent research generally finds the industry numbers to be hugely inflated, that piracy doesn't really cost that much, as most of the people doing it are are those who a) wouldn't pay to see the movie to begin with or b) have already paid and then fall I to category A again - sure they'll pirate and watch it again, but they weren't going to pay a 2nd time anyway, so the overall cost to the industry is nothing. Some studies find it drives sales as people under category A will then buy the movie after watching it.

    Piracy in general has cratered with the advent of streaming services, with p2p downloads a fraction of what they used to be back in the day. People would rather pay a small amount to watch whatever they want than have the hassle of torrenting it for free. Same as happened with music.

    Of course, all those studies are also in a pre covid world, without day 1 simultaneous theatrical & streaming options.

    What it comes down it is nobody knows anything. All past precedents are irrelevant. The only thing for certain is that Legendary and the cast that gave up salary for points can't make their money without a legit theatrical release. A 3rd party distributor making all the profit doesn't do it for them. And then the franchise dies.
     
  2. Asbo Zaprudder

    Asbo Zaprudder Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Maybe but I doubt most punters have the knowledge or patience to download a pirated version even if they are happy to do so from a moral standpoint. However, I might well be wrong. I could but I choose not to.
     
  3. FPAlpha

    FPAlpha Vice Admiral Premium Member

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    You don't even have to do personal illegal acts like downloading a movie, there's tons of streaming sites that upload a movie/TV show to their servers as soon as they hit filesharing circles. In many countries watching such streams is not illegal in itself because you are not providing illegally obtained copies of the content.

    One thing is for sure - Covid has and will shake up the movie business fundamentally. When even big chains are reaching the end of their stamina with no end of the pandemic in site it is uncertain how all of this will resume once the pandemic basically ends and becomes really just another flu.

    Studious and distributors will have to react and maybe WB were just the first ones through the door (and they always get a bloody nose), once people really get used to watching new movies from the comfort of their home there may not be a comeback for theatre chains.
     
  4. Asbo Zaprudder

    Asbo Zaprudder Vice Admiral Admiral

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  5. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Hollywood Reporter is saying Legendary & WB are close to a deal on Godzilla (previous reports had said Legendary was looking to get $250 mil, which is a little more than what Netflix had offered and Legendary had tried to accept, before WB blocked the transaction) and that, while they still have quite a bit to go with regards to Dune, it is looking more likely than not they will also reach a deal regarding it instead of litigation. WB may be blinking with day 1 digital for Dune, especially since they have apparently no rights to use images from Dune to advertise HBO Max, and are in violation of contract in having done so. How big the theatrical window will be is the biggest question.

    Not in the article, there have also been rumours that WB wants Chalamet to join the mainstream DCEU (vs the offshoot DCEU Pattinson films) as Terry McGinnis under Keaton's Bruce Wayne in direct to streaming films. Again, these are just rumours, but if true it would make them a little more willing to bend on terms with regards to Dune, to make Chalamet happy.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/a...resolve-clash-over-godzilla-vs-kong-exclusive
     
  6. JD

    JD Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    A lot of movies have just been doing a shorter theatrical exclusive release before putting it up on streaming, so I wouldn't be surprise if we see them go that way with Dune. A couple weeks or a month would probably be the most likely.
     
  7. FPAlpha

    FPAlpha Vice Admiral Premium Member

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    This could actually work in the long run as most blockbuster movies make the majority of their box office in the first few weeks of release.
     
  8. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Deal regarding Godzilla is done but details aren't out yet. Dune negotiations are still ongoing.
     
  9. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    With the Godzilla deal done & a date change for it WB has put out a new trailer for 1st day theatrical and digital. Noticeably no shots from Dune are used (as previous articles revealed they don't have the rights to use images from Dune in promos for HBOMax) the title card only briefly flashes on the screen and a print caveat "Films and release dates are subject to change" now appears at the end.

     
  10. JD

    JD Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I think that was the first footage we've seen from Mortal Kombat.
    Hopefully we'll get a trailer for GvK soon, it's coming out in 2 months now.
     
  11. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    I hope it's more Skull Island and less King of The Monsters.

    God that movie was bad. The only thing I enjoyed in it was Bradley Whitford obviously knowing what a pos it was and hamming it up.
     
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  12. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Oooof. No Time To Die just moved to Oct 8. Along with Morbius. That is not gonna help Dunes second weekend take.
     
  13. StCoop

    StCoop Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    You're assuming it's actually going to get released this year.
     
  14. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Yes? It's almost 9 months away, barring a new, vaccine proof strain, things should be re-opening by then with the vast majority of the population vaccinated (at least among those willing to take the vaccine).

    The Matrix already has the Christmas slot so if they push Dune there they have to push it as well. Otherwise they, what, skip it to next spring? Summer? Christmas 2022 against Avatar/Star Wars?

    Shit can happen of course but Oct isn't an outlandish expectation, unlike the Dec 2020 date that wasobviously not going to happen.
     
  15. The Wormhole

    The Wormhole Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Even assuming vaccinations are in full swing and October is a relatively safe time to go to the theatre again, now that the movie will be in direct competition with James Bond there's a very real possibility it might get rescheduled to a time when it will have less competition. Expect this to happen especially if any more movies currently scheduled for the spring get moved to October.
     
  16. StCoop

    StCoop Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Morbius has been moved to 2022 to get out of Bond's way, so it's not impossible that Dune will do the same.
     
  17. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Except that there isn't a time with less competition. With almost the entire 2020 slate pushed back to the second half of 2021/2022 plus the movies already planned for the second half of 2021/2022 the schedule is packed. Like the rest of my post said, where do you move it too? Unless you pull The Matrix, and even then you're competing with the billion dollar juggernaut that is Spider-Man.

    The schedule is packed. No matter where it gets placed, it's against some major competition.
     
  18. The Wormhole

    The Wormhole Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I still wouldn't rule another postponement out. Sad reality is, the major blockbusters are basically playing musical chairs with their release dates these days.
     
  19. wayoung

    wayoung Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Of course. I'm not saying it's impossible it won't move, I'm saying at this point there is nothing wrong with assuming the scheduled release date will be the actual release date, and until/unless things change should proceed as such. Unlike last year when the Dec 2020 release date was definitely not going to happen regardless of WB saying otherwise.
     
  20. Reverend

    Reverend Vice Admiral Admiral

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    It's really not worth debating at this point. All of these release dates are liable to be in flux until further notice. Indeed I suspect the only reason for announcing these release dates at all is just to try and boost shareholder confidence until the next quarter. Like a carrot on a stick...
    I mean remember last March when the prevailing attitude was "...well this will all be over by the end of July!"
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021