I'm hoping for higher than $60 million given the reviews and positive word of mouth but it has been a very slow summer at the box office and Paramount is in last place this year in terms of box office revenue for major studios. The one good thing is the buzz for the movie seems to have been building greatly in the last week or two, the reviews are good so I have a good feeling.
Does anyone know how Beyond is tracking for its opening weekend?
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I'm hoping for higher than $60 million given the reviews and positive word of mouth but it has been a very slow summer at the box office and Paramount is in last place this year in terms of box office revenue for major studios. The one good thing is the buzz for the movie seems to have been building greatly in the last week or two, the reviews are good so I have a good feeling.
I don't know...I wonder if there's a mental difference for moviegoers between early and mid-summer. I think after the 4th of July fewer people attend movies. That's the only thing that got me worried. Plus since then I've seen ticket sales are down 22%. So what I said earlier in this thread might be true: People want something that's not a kid's movie that's fun and adventuresome to see this summer, but the nagging doubt is that people are kind of sick of bad movies and want to keep away.
With these reviews and good WOM I can't see it doing less than a $68-70 million opening. I could very well be wrong however,
With these reviews and good WOM I can't see it doing less than a $68-70 million opening. I could very well be wrong however,
This is the latest thing I saw on the issue: http://comiconverse.com/star-trek-beyond-rave-reviews-box-office-success-11342
They take the tracking as a given in saying it's not outperforming the previous two.
They take the tracking as a given in saying it's not outperforming the previous two.
http://movieweb.com/star-trek-beyond-ice-age-5-box-office-predictions/
Comicweb predicts a $71.5m opening weekend for STB.
I think Paramount's $55-$60m is just the studio being cautious and not wanting egg on its face if it doesn't open well.
C'mon $80m.
Comicweb predicts a $71.5m opening weekend for STB.
I think Paramount's $55-$60m is just the studio being cautious and not wanting egg on its face if it doesn't open well.
C'mon $80m.
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-star-trek-beyond-ice-age-collision-course-lights/
Pro Box Office have increased their forecast from $56m to $61m.
Let's see what Thurs evening screening bring in to gauge what the weekend could be.
Pro Box Office have increased their forecast from $56m to $61m.
Let's see what Thurs evening screening bring in to gauge what the weekend could be.
I've been looking at some local theaters with reserved seating to see how many tickets have been sold so far. All I can say is that compared some other blockbusters that have come out this year, the results have been a little disappointing. I haven't seen any entity discuss the presale numbers, hopefully my area is an aberration. On the plus side, there are plenty of seats available for walk up viewers.
Having seen the movie (I'm in Asia and we traditionally open movies on Thursdays rather than Fridays, that and timezone differences means I watch movies 2 days earlier), I know the good word of mouth for this movie is going to spread like wildfire especially among the Trek community. As I've said on the other thread... for Trek fans, Beyond could potentially be the best Trek movie that's ever been made.
How would this affect the tracking?
How would this affect the tracking?
For domestic tracking, should this "blow up" in the trek community it might affect social media tracking minimally to moderately. However, for box office tracking, I think part of the reason for the overestimates of STID were due to all the dialogue from certain segments of Trek fans regarding how Khan was handled. Most predictors are going to take that into account. Some of the best indicators of box office are things like how often a movie was investigated on search engines. I think certain yet I don't think that is public information.
Great WOM will effect overall box office but won't have too much impact on the opening weekend. Where you might see some impact on the opening weekend is on better than expected Saturday holds and a better Sunday number. Usually word of mouth is noticed by the holds (lower week to week drops) that a movie has during it's theatrical run.
As I said up thread, I think it's all going to come down to walk-ups.
As far as Paramount seeing it as a success, hopefully they'll take the year's statistics into account. I mean, look at Civil War, if it had come out last year, I don't even know that it would've finished in the top five.
As far as Paramount seeing it as a success, hopefully they'll take the year's statistics into account. I mean, look at Civil War, if it had come out last year, I don't even know that it would've finished in the top five.
Presales aren't a primary indicator but they are used for comparisons against similar types of movies. If movie X was tracking lower than movie Y (similar genres) yet X had higher ticket presales at the same time . . . . prognosticators might revise their estimates up. Also, presales are something that has been growing every year. Especially as some theaters have gone to "reserved seating". When you can show up to a theater before everyone else and still get crappy seats . . . the incentive there is to go ahead and just preorder. The theater I am seeing STB as is actually smaller and cheaper than the bigger chains but they have the new reclining seats sooooo . . . . if you don't reserve early there you will probably end up SOL. There are a couple movies I would have preferred to see there but they were full. And also, for STB they are selling out faster than norm.
There is a 24 screen theater 2 miles from me that within the past year went to reserved seating on about 80% of their screenings. That's what really forced me to start buying tickets early. Prior to that I pretty much refused to pay the surcharges.
I'm a little nervous about tonight. I'm in a suburb of Pittsburgh and the only place I can go to see it tonight is almost an hour away. Our local theatre dropped it yesterday and refunded my Fandango account.
Civil War would have placed 4th last year even if it has suffered from tougher competition (it has a $50m buffer on last year's 4th place finisher Inside Out). Of course it would never have been released the same year as Age of Ultron but your point is valid. There is usually a big gap between the box office positions of 1st and 2nd compared to 3rd thru 5th. The difference between 2nd place so far this year ($407m) and 2nd place last year ($652m) is almost $250m. Performance is relative.
I also think Civil War benefited from this year's weak overall lineup (even though it's legs were typical comic book movie). I think Rama mentioned the somewhat bland offerings (in terms of public interest) this season. While SS does come out in 2 weeks and that could dominate the market its first weekend, GB was pretty "meh" box office wise and I don't see Bourne doing big numbers (low to mid 50s). Now if STB can only capitalize on that.
Well, my wife and I are going to see it on IMAX tonight and we'll be in DBox seats tomorrow night. Our contribution to opening weekend has certainly been made.
Mojo predicting $59M:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4208&p=.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4208&p=.htm
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