If the punk on the bus remembers Kirk and Spock, Guinan should remember Picard.
He could be the same bus punk, but one from a universe where Kirk/Spock never went back in time, and he just rubbed his neck by coincidence (because it would remind us of that scene).
I think people are overthinking this, but nothing stops fascist Kirk and Spock to go back in time and knock out the punk in the 80s. And then classify time travel, of course.
If Guinan's Time's Arrow stuff didn't happen then the Punk Rocker's getting neck pinched by Spock shouldn't have happened since Kirk's time oughtn't have happened. Which if it didn't happen, why didn't that whale probe come and whack the Earth?
You're all wrong! Obviously, the Bus Punk is also an El-Aurian, and he touched his neck because he was feeling the echoes of the other timeline.

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