Spoilers The Marvels grade and discussion

[Grendelsbayne]

I don't think the comparison of Ant-Man and Captain Marvel is fair.

Ant-Man was the coda of Phase 2, and came after Avengers: Age of Ultron. This is important for two reasons. One there were no hanging plot threads from Ultron left. Two, Ultron got a somewhat mixed response. Hence the relatively low box office for Ant-Man (which was also designed as a smaller-scale, lower-budget origin film) made sense.

Captain Marvel, in contrast, came not after Endgame, but between Infinity War and Endgame. It was not the coda to Phase 3 (that was Spider-Man: Far From Home). Infinity War ended on a cliffhanger, and hinted that Captain Marvel would be important for Endgame (which, by that point, came out nearly a year before). So I think it's fair to conclude in retrospect some people turned out because they were really chomping at the bit for more Avengers.

Add to this that some of the marketing hinted the movie would help develop Nick Fury, and I think a fair number of people didn't show up specifically for Carol. Or may have showed up to check out Carol, but decided, four years later, they just didn't care all that much.

Iron Man 3 came out right after Avengers and made a billion earning about 600m more than IM2 (which was famously hated).

Ant-man and the Wasp came out in between the two Avengers movies, just like Captain Marvel. It didn't make a billion. More than that, it made 500m less than Captain Marvel. Hell, it made less than Iron Man 2.

Thor Ragnarok came out five months before Infinity War and was the kick-off for the whole Infinity War event. It didn't make a billion.

Spider-man Far from Home came out right after Endgame and was advertised as the coda to the whole infinity saga. It did make a billion but only about 250m more than Homecoming.

There is not and never has been any even remotely logical argument that the 'Avengers bump' could ever possibly account for the entire billion dollar gross of Captain Marvel. At worst, it would still have been in the same territory as Ant-man. More likely it was still in the same territory as such 'unsuccessful' movies as Winter Soldier or Ragnarok.

 

[Gaith]

There is not and never has been any even remotely logical argument that the 'Avengers bump' could ever possibly account for the entire billion dollar gross of Captain Marvel.

Not the whole gross, no. Excitement over Marvel's first solo female-starring movie, still coming off the acclaim for Wonder Woman, doubtless played a role, also.

 

[TREK_GOD_1]

Not the whole gross, no. Excitement over Marvel's first solo female-starring movie, still coming off the acclaim for Wonder Woman, doubtless played a role, also.

Oh, i'm sure the impact of Wonder Woman had some influence on Captain Marvel, but the lion's share of that Captain Marvel's success cannot be separated from its position between the final chapter of the original MCU phase(s) / Thanos arc, which most knew would be the final bow for RDJ and Evans. Remove the important Avengers films, and a Captain Marvel movie--The Marvels--has to stand on its own, and the results speak for themselves.

 

[Anwar]

Actually, you discounting the changing landscape of how theatergoing changed between 2019 and now, the lack of promotions, the mismarketing that made people think they had to see 3 D+ shows to understand the movie, and it's a very different scenario from the first Captain Marvel film.

I am happy I was right that certain folks would use this random bad luck as an excuse to condemn female superhero movies though.

 

[Tosk]

I am happy I was right that certain folks would use this random bad luck as an excuse to condemn female superhero movies though.

What an odd thing to be happy about.

 

[fireproof78]

What an odd thing to be happy about.

Being right is supreme.

 

[TREK_GOD_1]

...yet some creating endless excuses to explain the reasons The Marvels is a box office disaster (instead of that which is the likely cause) is expected behavior.

 

[eschaton]

Actually, you discounting the changing landscape of how theatergoing changed between 2019 and now, the lack of promotions, the mismarketing that made people think they had to see 3 D+ shows to understand the movie, and it's a very different scenario from the first Captain Marvel film.

I am happy I was right that certain folks would use this random bad luck as an excuse to condemn female superhero movies though.

People are feeling around for a reason why it failed so hard, because...it doesn't make a lot of sense that a sequel to a $1.1 billion movie is on track for just north of $200 million at the box office. This suggests something like 4 out of 5 people who saw Captain Marvel skipped this, and there has to be some reason for this.

• Arguments about "people are just waiting for Disney Plus" or that viewing habits have changed don't really fly, IMHO, because this has been the case since 2021. While most of the MCU's box office hauls since the pandemic have been mediocre (aside from No Way Home, Wakanda Forever, and GOTG3) by earlier standards, you'd still expect The Marvels to have at least double the box office.
• I do think arguments about the strike impacting the box office are salient, but other movies came out during the strike and did fine. Barbie and Oppenhimer opened about a week after the strike started, and were smash hits. Five Nights at Feddy's did very respectably for a horror movie.
• I also don't think the meh early reviews really impacted things that much. Advanced ticket sales were scary even before the review embargo lifted, and even though a lot of critics didn't like it, fans who saw the film generally did.

Ultimately, I do think we have to conclude that at least some of the people who went to saw Captain Marvel either didn't really form a major connection with the character, or they lost interest over the last four years. Thus even in a universe where the strike didn't happen (and production perhaps ran a bit smoother) we would still be looking more at Quantumania level box office returns, rather than Wakanda Forever.

Frankly, I think the Marvels suffered because of earlier whiffs by the studio. Looking at Phases 4/5, I feel like Eternals, Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, and Quantumania all had issues with scripts, pacing, CGI, and other aspects which made them suffer. The Marvels may have finally just been the point where more casual MCU fans decided they had been burned enough times at the box office and wanted to stay home and wait to see the movie till later, since there was a roughly 50/50 shot of it being flawed.

 

[Anwar]

People are feeling around for a reason why it failed so hard, because...it doesn't make a lot of sense that a sequel to a $1.1 billion movie is on track for just north of $200 million at the box office. This suggests something like 4 out of 5 people who saw Captain Marvel skipped this, and there has to be some reason for this.

• Arguments about "people are just waiting for Disney Plus" or that viewing habits have changed don't really fly, IMHO, because this has been the case since 2021. While most of the MCU's box office hauls since the pandemic have been mediocre (aside from No Way Home, Wakanda Forever, and GOTG3) by earlier standards, you'd still expect The Marvels to have at least double the box office.
• I do think arguments about the strike impacting the box office are salient, but other movies came out during the strike and did fine. Barbie and Oppenhimer opened about a week after the strike started, and were smash hits. Five Nights at Feddy's did very respectably for a horror movie.
• I also don't think the meh early reviews really impacted things that much. Advanced ticket sales were scary even before the review embargo lifted, and even though a lot of critics didn't like it, fans who saw the film generally did.

Ultimately, I do think we have to conclude that at least some of the people who went to saw Captain Marvel either didn't really form a major connection with the character, or they lost interest over the last four years. Thus even in a universe where the strike didn't happen (and production perhaps ran a bit smoother) we would still be looking more at Quantumania level box office returns, rather than Wakanda Forever.

Frankly, I think the Marvels suffered because of earlier whiffs by the studio. Looking at Phases 4/5, I feel like Eternals, Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, and Quantumania all had issues with scripts, pacing, CGI, and other aspects which made them suffer. The Marvels may have finally just been the point where more casual MCU fans decided they had been burned enough times at the box office and wanted to stay home and wait to see the movie till later, since there was a roughly 50/50 shot of it being flawed.

The mismarketing made people think they had to see Ms Marvel and WandaVision and Secret Invasion to understand the movie, and the smear campaign against Secret Invasion turned folks off that idea.

Which turned out to be empty worried because you didn't need to see those shows to understand the movie.

No Way Home came out before the big D+ pushes came out, so it didn't occur to folks to sit back and wait for it.

Barbie and Oppenheimer had huge marketing pushes and promotions which happened before the Strikes effects took place, the Barbieheimer phenomenon and the pull that Greta Gerwig and Chris Nolan both had based on their reputations. Summer releases as well.

FNAF had insane marketing for years online and a big fanbase who really really wanted to see the first big FNAF movie, which is why there was a big drop off after the initial weekend. Thankfully, it was a low budget movie so it didn't need much to be a hit.

Indiana Jones and Quantumania both ended up being big streaming hits later, and seeing how the general response to The Marvels is "Really, this is better than most recent MCU stuff" the same thing should happen there too.

 

[eschaton]

Indiana Jones and Quantumania both ended up being big streaming hits later, and seeing how the general response to The Marvels is "Really, this is better than most recent MCU stuff" the same thing should happen there too.

We still don't have any external objective metrics to understand whether something is a "big streaming hit," so I take these with a grain of salt.

That said, I absolutely think that MCU fans who didn't see it in the theaters will catch it on Disney+, when it's going to be available for free (more or less, presuming they already have a subscription).

Come to think of it, NWH probably got a boost in 2021 because it is a Sony production, and there's no way to know for sure when, if ever, it will actually land on Disney+.

 

[Gaith]

Indiana Jones and Quantumania

Citation needed, especially on IJ.

the smear campaign against Secret Invasion

That's an interesting way of misspelling "overwhelming viewer consensus."

 

[Anwar]

Citation needed, especially on IJ.

That's an interesting way of misspelling "overwhelming viewer consensus."

https://thedirect.com/article/indiana-jones-5-disney-plus-release-online-viewership

We don't know the numbers for D+ yet though, just VOD. But those numbers speak well.

Most of that viewer consensus was from people who didn't even watch past episode 1.

 

[bdub76]

https://thedirect.com/article/indiana-jones-5-disney-plus-release-online-viewership

We don't know the numbers for D+ yet though, just VOD. But those numbers speak well.

Most of that viewer consensus was from people who didn't even watch past episode 1.

I made it half way through before giving up. It was so boring.

 

[eschaton]

Most of that viewer consensus was from people who didn't even watch past episode 1.

And yet, the final episode has the lowest rating by far.

• Episode 1: 55% (22 votes)
• Episode 2: 50% (18 votes)
• Episode 3: 38% (16 votes)
• Episode 4: 38% (13 votes)
• Episode 5: 50% (10 votes)
• Episode 6: 7% (12 votes)

 

[Anwar]

And yet, the final episode has the lowest rating by far.

• Episode 1: 55% (22 votes)
• Episode 2: 50% (18 votes)
• Episode 3: 38% (16 votes)
• Episode 4: 38% (13 votes)
• Episode 5: 50% (10 votes)
• Episode 6: 7% (12 votes)

22 votes from episode 1 down to 12 votes for episode 6. So yeah, skewed stats.

 

[eschaton]

22 votes from episode 1 down to 12 votes for episode 6. So yeah, skewed stats.

You're right. But all it would have taken was a few fans sticking with it to the end to cancel out those negative reviews. They didn't bother.

 

[Commander Troi]

And yet, the final episode has the lowest rating by far.

• Episode 1: 55% (22 votes)
• Episode 2: 50% (18 votes)
• Episode 3: 38% (16 votes)
• Episode 4: 38% (13 votes)
• Episode 5: 50% (10 votes)
• Episode 6: 7% (12 votes)

You're right. But all it would have taken was a few fans sticking with it to the end to cancel out those negative reviews. They didn't bother.

I stuck with it til the end and was deeply disappointed.

 

[Avalon]

It's interesting that Bob Iger and several others are dumping all the blame on director Nia DeCosta for box office failure of "The Marvels". Yet, WB had hired James Gunn to serve as co-head of their new DC movies franchise, despite the box office failure of "The Suicide Squad".

So there was something to that story about DeCosta bailing on the film in mid post-production after all?

Many believe Iger was using DeCosta as a scapegoat.

https://gizmodo.com/nia-dacosta-captain-marvel-2-production-controversy-1850995316

“It was literally just that they moved the date of the film four different times,” the director explained at a press junket for The Marvels this past weekend to Jake’s Takes. “So instead of it being a two year process, which I was deeply committed to, it became a three and a half year process.”

DaCosta noted that she had already committed to production on Hedda—an adaptation of the Henrik Ibsen play about a woman trapped in a loveless marriage—and that Marvel were aware of that commitment as The Marvels repeatedly shifted dates. “I pushed [Hedda], and then I pushed it again, and then I pushed it again, and then eventually, we all knew ‘Okay, if this pushes again I’m not gonna able to be in L.A. to do the rest of [The Marvels] in person.’”

“We figured out a way to do it remote,” the director continued, saying that she and Marvel “figured out the best process” for her to finish The Marvels remotely in the UK—and that really, at the point she had to leave the film was already so far along that the director and her crew were already aligned on the choices she wanted to make for the film.

“Everyone was so clear about what the film was, what we wanted, everyone knew what I wanted,” DaCosta concluded. “So it really wasn’t the dramatic thing that I think people are sort of feeling it is.”

 

[TREK_GOD_1]

People are feeling around for a reason why it failed so hard, because...it doesn't make a lot of sense that a sequel to a $1.1 billion movie is on track for just north of $200 million at the box office. This suggests something like 4 out of 5 people who saw Captain Marvel skipped this, and there has to be some reason for this.

• Arguments about "people are just waiting for Disney Plus" or that viewing habits have changed don't really fly, IMHO, because this has been the case since 2021. While most of the MCU's box office hauls since the pandemic have been mediocre (aside from No Way Home, Wakanda Forever, and GOTG3) by earlier standards, you'd still expect The Marvels to have at least double the box office.

...and yet The Marvels failed to double that, with no evidence of "pandemic" impact--which did not stall the box office performance of other films (named time and again) released in the same era. The Marvels--similar to the reaction to a number of recent Marvel productions (theater or streaming) no longer has the shield of the MCU brand to make it a success. There's an undeniably sharp drop in quality of concept coupled with Marvel overload, and there does not seem to be an end in sight.

Frankly, I think the Marvels suffered because of earlier whiffs by the studio. Looking at Phases 4/5, I feel like Eternals, Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder, and Quantumania all had issues with scripts, pacing, CGI, and other aspects which made them suffer. The Marvels may have finally just been the point where more casual MCU fans decided they had been burned enough times at the box office and wanted to stay home and wait to see the movie till later, since there was a roughly 50/50 shot of it being flawed.

Probably.

Citation needed, especially on IJ.

That's an interesting way of misspelling "overwhelming viewer consensus."

Indeed.

 

[Anwar]

Those other movies were not "in the same era", at all. They had better marketing, promotions and other external boosters the Marvels didn't get due to poor timing and mismarketing.