The Down Under Lounge

[Botany Bay]

Well that was quick. July 2 DD it is. And yes, that's great advice voting below the line. Even though the new Senate voting rules will make it harder to get elected using preference swaps, it' a DD so the threshold for being elected is half what it usually is, and its easier for fringe candidates to get in. Suspect you'll see the Greens do well out of the new rules.

In a nutshell you can mark as many boxes as you want 1-whatever above the line, or below the line you need to number at least twelve. But, if you can, the way to make your vote really count is number the lot below the line.

Now a mad scramble for the AEC to get advertising done explaining how the Senate voting works.

Also time to encourage people to enrol. So many young people aren't on the roll. The new rule with enrolment is no penalty for not voting in past elections, but if you're not on the roll and get caught moving forward, look out.

Now...to work the election or not? It'll be a close one and I like watching the coverage...hmmm...decisions.

 

[Marc]

Well that was quick. July 2 DD it is. And yes, that's great advice voting below the line. Even though the new Senate voting rules will make it harder to get elected using preference swaps, it' a DD so the threshold for being elected is half what it usually is, and its easier for fringe candidates to get in. Suspect you'll see the Greens do well out of the new rules.

In a nutshell you can mark as many boxes as you want 1-whatever above the line, or below the line you need to number at least twelve. But, if you can, the way to make your vote really count is number the lot below the line.

Now a mad scramble for the AEC to get advertising done explaining how the Senate voting works.

Also time to encourage people to enrol. So many young people aren't on the roll. The new rule with enrolment is no penalty for not voting in past elections, but if you're not on the roll and get caught moving forward, look out.

Now...to work the election or not? It'll be a close one and I like watching the coverage...hmmm...decisions.

the AEC has one major headache though - the Liberal Democrat Senator has challenged the changes to in the High Court so while iirc the date for the hearing is fairly close it's going to depend on how long the court takes to make a decision and whether it puts an injunction in place until it can rule on the matter.

While the changes that allow you to have a small selection below the line are good, the changes aimed at the minor and micro parties were pure political bastardry by the lnp and the fact it was rammed through so late when they've held office for 2.5 years says a lot.

 

[Botany Bay]

I think the idea was to stamp out "Preference whisperers" (who are in business to exploit people's lack of interest in filling out below the line votes) getting Senators into parliament with miniscule votes. Ricky Muir is representing a state as huge as Victoria with 17,000 first preference votes.

If you believe the purpose of Superannuation is to help ordinary people provide for retirement rather than exist as a tax shelter for the very wealthy, you'll be happy. The budget will allegedly contain a measure that doubles the tax on contributions for people on $180k plus, from 15c to 30c.

If (as is desperately needed unfortunately), taxes start rising, the 1% need to be seen to be wearing some pain. This is a good start.

 

[Miss Chicken]

One of my friends voted above the line last election for one of minor parties that didn't have a chance. She reckoned the Libs, Labor, Greens weren't worth voting for but she hates the Libs the most.

I gather that the party she voted for preference their votes to the Libs. However a Labor member was returned in our electorate.

 

[Botany Bay]

Yeah, your reps vote could be very, very important this time.

We only need 15 seats to fall for the Coalition to be forced into minority government. I was just looking at the pendulum, and that fifteenth seat is Bonner, which they hold by only 3.7%. (I think the media has forgotten how successful Rudd -- love him or hate him -- was in saving the ALP from slaughter in 2013, and I am not buying the proposition that Turnbull has this in the bag for one second).

When poll after poll shows the 2PP at 50/50, it's going to be a seat by seat fight. Be careful who you vote for. They could be a political kingmaker in a few months.

A politically shrewd decision today from Turnbull not to touch negative gearing. Clear point of difference with Labor, but, again, another backflip. Hasn't he been talking for months about at least curbing the people who use it "excessively"?

 

[jaz'a]

The Liberals position on negative gearing will probably lose my vote for the Liberals. I have never voted Liberal before but I was tossing up the idea of doing so this time. At least for the house and maybe voting Labor for the senate. I don't like Shorten particularly and I do think having some stability in government is very important. Yet negative gearing as it stands makes no sense. If the goal is to increase housing (always touted as one major reason for it) then placing it on new homes only makes more sense. It also makes sense in that it is actually helps the economy. Building houses employs people. The only people employed in great number when buying established homes are the agents and a few tradies perhaps.

Of course I've always been of the view that housing is to live in not make money off.

 

[Botany Bay]

Can't disagree with any of those points, but I think Labor's policy is a huge overreach. Like so many recent policies they just shoot first and aim later. They are ending deductions on share margin loans, work related expenses and basically anything other than interest costs on new residential property. The ability to deduct expenses related to earning your income is a principle of Tax Law going back hundreds of years. The idea of being taxed on all your income and only paying your expenses with what's left after tax seems far too harsh. By all means, curb the exuberance around property investment (and maybe save a few people from themselves -- residential property is a terrible investment), but leave the rest of us trying to build businesses and employ people directly or indirectly alone please Bill.

Another interesting thing is that Sydney has just booked two quarters of negative house price growth. Reminds me a bit of Rudd with the Mining tax -- they've missed the boat. It's patchy at this stage, but there are some suburbs of Sydney where property investors have been absolutely smashed in the last twelve months.

Hope everyone had a great Anzac day. Did the dawn service at the Cenotaph, my local one, then the parade. Much smaller crowds this year, but a day that always awes me. The sacrifice this country made in WW1 was truly more than should have been asked of any country, let alone one so young. Really poignant to stand next to the old GPO building where sixty thousand telegrams came home announcing another son wasn't coming home. I cannot imagine the bravery of the next generation who went off to WW2 after growing up with first hand knowledge of what war did to their mothers and fathers. Out of four relatives who fought in those wars, only my grandfather came back alive. He never marched, and never, in fact, even spoke of the war, but he loved Anzac day because he could sit there doing what he loved the most, knocking back dozens of schooners with his friends at the RSL or bowling club

 

[PlainSimpleJoel]

I'm feeling the effects of the dawn service - as I had problems sleeping last night. but that didn't stop me, nor did my bad knee. Had to plans to get the train at 4.55am, so I could meet my sister at Southern Cross. Got to the station earlier than was expected to, as I had walk to the station. The train station at Laverton was very quiet this morning, but around the Shrine it seemed crowded.

After the ceremony and getting something to eat, came home and watched the march on TV. During the day did think of my late grandfather, and my uncle who served at Vietnam. My uncle has never talked about it - nor doesn't he march. So it was nice seeing the Vietnam vets marching at the front.

 

[jaz'a]

I admit I have never attended an Anzac service. My grandfather was a pacifist during world war two. Mind you that doesn't mean that he didn't go. His attitude was that whilst he might not be willing to shoot a gun, he could patch people up so he enlisted as a medic and served in North Africa. He thought any pacifist that didn't sign up as a nurse or medic wasn't really a pacifist. They were just cowards. Granddad would never attend any Anzac day service because he felt it was glorifying war. Given he was the one who was there the rest of the family respected his views and never attended either. I don't agree with him (either his pacifist views or that it glorifies war) but even now I feel it would be somehow disrespectful of him to attend.

 

[Marc]

Can't disagree with any of those points, but I think Labor's policy is a huge overreach. Like so many recent policies they just shoot first and aim later. They are ending deductions on share margin loans, work related expenses and basically anything other than interest costs on new residential property. The ability to deduct expenses related to earning your income is a principle of Tax Law going back hundreds of years. The idea of being taxed on all your income and only paying your expenses with what's left after tax seems far too harsh. By all means, curb the exuberance around property investment (and maybe save a few people from themselves -- residential property is a terrible investment), but leave the rest of us trying to build businesses and employ people directly or indirectly alone please Bill.

But they would only do that as of July 1st next year. All existing investments etc would be grandfathered - a point that the fibs are deliberately not mentioning.

 

[Botany Bay]

Well to be fair, it's not exactly Turnbull's job to sell the ALP's policy. He's having enough trouble selling his own (whatever they might be).

The negative gearing policy debate pretty much sums up the state of Australia's two major parties. One does nothing, while the other comes up with an ill conceived overreaction. All Turnbull needed to do was leave negative gearing open to all who enjoy losing money on real estate, but cap deductions at some level -- $10k or something -- and the issue is dead. But no, on it drags, with those in the ALP who love fighting the class war battles of the 1970's having a field day. To them, Turnbull is the gift that keeps on giving.

So a win for South Australia with the submarines being built here and thousands of jobs being created. This might help the Liberals in the Senate. Apparently Nick Xenophon has three Senate seats in the bag at this stage. He will probably hold the balance of power in the Senate along with the Greens if those polls are right.

I saw a classic interview with Xenophon the other night where he was asked what he thought of Labor's negative gearing policy. He was strongly opposed, he said. Then the interviewer asked him how many investment properties Xenophon owned. "Four", he replied.

 

[Marc]

The negative gearing policy debate pretty much sums up the state of Australia's two major parties. One does nothing, while the other comes up with an ill conceived overreaction. All Turnbull needed to do was leave negative gearing open to all who enjoy losing money on real estate, but cap deductions at some level -- $10k or something -- and the issue is dead. But no, on it drags, with those in the ALP who love fighting the class war battles of the 1970's having a field day. To them, Turnbull is the gift that keeps on giving.

Given that changes to the negative gearing could easily return $16bil to government coffers each year and that's being grossly abused as the big end of town uses it to offset their income tax instead of the revenue/loses from just the rental properties after changes the Howard government made back in 1999 I wouldn't call it an ill conceived policy.

So a win for South Australia with the submarines being built here and thousands of jobs being created. This might help the Liberals in the Senate. Apparently Nick Xenophon has three Senate seats in the bag at this stage. He will probably hold the balance of power in the Senate along with the Greens if those polls are right.

it's biggest pork barrelling in Australian electoral history and the libs are hoping it's enough to save poodle pyne's political bacon. In the mean they are claiming to have done more in 6 weeks on the subs than Labor did in 6 years - except I think they are telling porkies - you don't spend do a tender worth $150 billion in 6 weekends. Secondly the Lbis have been in office for nearly 2.5 years and now they decide to do something about. It's a decision about ensuring electoral success that could have ramiifications down the track.

With the Collins class it was pretty much a modification of the Swedish design. The new ones will be scaling down of a French nuclear design so who knows what issues will arise there. Plus they are insisting on using American weapons systems - something that has been a major headache with the Collins class (particularly the Motorola fire control system).

 

[Botany Bay]

Given that changes to the negative gearing could easily return $16bil to government coffers each year and that's being grossly abused as the big end of town uses it to offset their income tax instead of the revenue/loses from just the rental properties after changes the Howard government made back in 1999 I wouldn't call it an ill conceived policy.

I think you're referring to Howard's 50% discount on capital gains tax if you hold the asset longer than a year. I'm with you on this one. It's an extravagance a country with $500bn of public debt can't afford anymore. No problems with the ALP wanting to trim it, or even scrapping it.

As for Labor's policy on income tax deductions, we'll have to agree to disagree. If they'd refine the policy specifically to curtail negative gearing on residential property, I'd be on board, but I can't see how catching share investors, or people with interest expenses on business loans helps housing affordability. Its not as though the share market or the economy is overheated! They're smashing a fly with a sledgehammer.

Interesting comments on the subs. You're far more across it than me. I hate protectionism but in this case I understand there may be some security reasons behind doing the work here. I hope the right decisions have been made. You get the feeling the China/USA thing is going to require us to pick a side at some point, and I'll feel a lot better knowing we have a fleet of twelve great subs. As someone put it "there are only two types of military boats : floating targets and submarines", so we need to get this one right.

Labor's announcement about an ETS is a brave, commendable one. Their thinking on this is exactly what I thought Rudd should have done in 2010 : cap pollution at a high level as the architecture is set up, then if the rest of the world moves meaningfully, then turn up the wick. Kudos Bill Shorten. It also, like the banking Royal Commission is a fantastic tactical play wedging Turnbull.

Essential media today has the ALP leading 52-48 on the 2PP.

Troubling economic news with Australia experiencing deflation. A symptom of a very weak economy. A rate cut looks a good bet sooner rather than later.

 

[Botany Bay]

"We've got it in the bag...an election about Carbon taxes and boat people..." seems to be the vibe among Lib staffers and their aligned media figures.

No appealing to the public's better angels in modern Aussie politics it seems.

Budget Tuesday. Haven't seen anything to suggest it won't be another eye watering deficit to add another $40bn or so to a debt pile that this generation's political leadership have basically decided to leave to their kids to pay for. Boomer, baby!

In less depressing news, the AFL is really delivering this year for me. Several past strugglers have really improved and the games are really good to watch. Thrilled to see GWS notch up a record score on the weekend against last year's premiers. An AFL flag could be heading to Western Sydney in the next few years.

 

[Marc]

"We've got it in the bag...an election about Carbon taxes and boat people..." seems to be the vibe among Lib staffers and their aligned media figures.

sounds like they are living in the past (2016 to be precise).

 

[Miss Chicken]

BIG and IMPORTANT question

Has anyone tried the 'New and Improved Arnotts SHAPES'? They are said to be gross.

Product Review of them

http://www.productreview.com.au/p/arnott-s-shapes.html

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

Haven't tried them because I've always hated the originals. But the new ones are probably grosser.

 

[TEACAKE'S PLEATHER DOME]

The stupid winter has finally showed up, it is disgusting.

 

[Botany Bay]

BIG and IMPORTANT question

Has anyone tried the 'New and Improved Arnotts SHAPES'? They are said to be gross.

Product Review of them

http://www.productreview.com.au/p/arnott-s-shapes.html

Now it makes sense! I was shopping with my 8 year old and went to grab the lunchbox size shapes that he's had for years, and he said he doesn't like them, all of a sudden.

 

[Miss Chicken]

I bought a packet of 10 snack packs

3 pizza
3 barbecue
2 cheese and bacon
2 cheddar

$3 on special, 33% off. The boxes were $2, also 33% off.

Just tried the barbecue - awful
Just tried cheese and bacon - not good, but better than the barbecue.