As far as Starfleet is concerned, I think Picard is "seen and not heard". They have the Enterprise-D on display but the Admiral doesn't want to hear anything Picard has to say and wants him to leave. Maybe they'll bring him out to talk about the Good Old Days and then send him along. They've moved away from him. They already were during late-DS9 and the Dominion War, so 20+ years later, I imagine it's even worse.
In the TOS Movies, I think Starfleet Command wanted Kirk promoted to Admiral and be Chief of Starfleet Operations, so they could pick his brain but keep him out of action. Then, when he didn't want to be an Admiral, they had no further use for him. They didn't want him out there in command because he didn't fit what Starfleet wanted from its Captains. They wanted Captains like Esteban, Terrell, Styles, and Harriman.
So Picard, right now, seems to be at a point that's a cross between where Kirk was after TUC and where he was before TWOK, with a dash of TSFS. Out of Starfleet, out of favor with Starfleet, but wanting to do his own thing anyway because he feels he has no choice.