50/50 at best.
What makes it difficult?
The strikes. Delayed any progress in decision-making.
Terry Matalas. If they don't act soon he'll move on. Hes a fan but in Hollywood you're as good as your next project and you have to take them as they come.
Doesn't matter that the Writer's Strike has been resolved. Without the Actor's Strike being resolved,
nothing's moving forward. So, there's nowhere for him to go, until then.
Terry has pushed hard for
Legacy. He's got Akiva Goldsman, Jonathan Frakes, etc. supporting him. Alex Kurtzman said fans supporting the show "have been heard." Actions speak louder than words. This is Terry's Dream Job. He's the type of person who'd drop everything else just to work on
Legacy. So he won't agree to anything else that would potentially lock him out of that. He'll take projects that would still leave him able and available for Star Trek. Why? Because I think he sees himself as Kirk in TMP and he sees
Legacy as The Enterprise. Silly as that sounds, I think that's how he thinks of it in his mind.
So, no. They won't lose him. And they don't have to move fast. Then there are the actors. Unless they find another series that guarantees them steady employment for a while, they'll be available to.
That's not the same as my saying
Legacy WILL be greenlit. Just that IF it is, Terry Matalas isn't going to say no. His actions and entire MO up this point suggest the exact opposite.
Just one problem here: If Terry Matalas wants to do the show THAT badly, then it gives Alex Kurtzman all the power. Alex Kurtzman can lay down whatever terms he wants, play as hardball as he wants, or take as long as he wants and know that Terry will agree to it as long as it's greenlit. Unless you can show you're willing and prepared to walk away, the person you're trying to get approval from will stomp all over you.