Spoilers Marvel Cinematic Universe spoiler-heavy speculation thread

[theenglish]

It's being released in February--not a great month for movie releases. Box office is going to come down to word of mouth. I would not count the opening weekend as a prediction of its staying power if it is a good film. I'm really hoping for Winter Soldier vibes on this--it has a lot of ground to cover. It is a follow up to both Eternals and Wakanda Forever in terms of story and Endgame and FatWS in terms of characters.

 

[JoeZhang]

So calling it a "turkey" is misleading at best.

Turkey is used to refer to outcomes not reasons why. In box office terms it was a turkey.

 

[Christopher]

Turkey is used to refer to outcomes not reasons why. In box office terms it was a turkey.

Again, it was #1 in its release weekend, because everything did poorly at that time. And it's apparently done well in streaming. So calling it a failure seems oversimplistic. At the very least, there should be an asterisk appended.

 

[Jayson1]

I heard projections aren't good but who knows if that person was just someone with a agenda. I do think the budget is so high that their is no way the movie can make a profit but that doesn't mean it can't make enough money maybe to warrant a sequel with a more manageable budget. I think the biggest concerns is whether or not this movie going to be really so compelling that people want to go see it in the movie theater vs just waiting a bit and watching it on Disneyplus. I do also wonder what impact the LA fires will have on it. LA is a big market and I am guessing lots of people are not exactly going to be in the mood to be going to see a movie in the movies theaters.

 

[JoeZhang]

I heard projections aren't good but who knows if that person was just someone with a agenda. I do think the budget is so high that their is no way the movie can make a profit

You get multiple projections - where it starts to firm up is when you get real pre-sale numbers.

It’s possible for things to be “Leggy” and do better than expected (The Greatest Showman) even after a poor opening weekend.

As for making a profit - with promotion and marking, you are getting on to a large number, it cost more to make than Avatar 2.

 

[Set Harth]

So calling it a "turkey" is misleading at best.

It's more of a buzzard.

 

[TREK_GOD_1]

Wow, I had no idea they went that far out of their way to hide the black characters in their marketing for China, that's pretty bad.

On that note:

The Finn thing got a fair amount of media exposure.

Indeed; Boyega exposed Disney/LFL for their racist handling of his character and capitulation to China's demands to marginalize him in marketing materials, which was covered in GQ and covered across many media platforms. With Disney/Marvel Studios' similarly racial suppression in the Chinese ads for Black Panther, the notion that Disney was some great beacon of progressive ideology / approach in their business practices was revealed to be complete BS regarding one of the greatest evil beliefs in history.

If it performs similar to Quantumania, people are getting fired. A conservative estimate is it’s at least $40-$50 million more expensive.

One wonders if the Disney corporate reaction about MCU films going forward (that are not already in the can) will be one to pull back on budgets and long-range plans overall, or will it only target Cap / Cap-related films?

I don’t see it being as big of a box office turkey as The Marvels for a range of reasons, because if it was, then LOTS of people are getting fired.

Turkey is used to refer to outcomes not reasons why. In box office terms it was a turkey.

Yes, at this point, its difficult to imagine any film being the box-office disaster that was The Marvels, but we will wait and see.

II'm really hoping for Winter Soldier vibes on this--it has a lot of ground to cover. It is a follow up to both Eternals and Wakanda Forever in terms of story and Endgame and FatWS in terms of characters.

Regarding the Winter Soldier vibe, early in its production Malcom Spellman described Cap4 as a "paranoid political thriller", which would certainly fall in line with Cap2, and its not a bad thing to be similar to the far-and-away best MCU production to date.

 

[Grendelsbayne]

You get multiple projections - where it starts to firm up is when you get real pre-sale numbers.

It’s possible for things to be “Leggy” and do better than expected (The Greatest Showman) even after a poor opening weekend.

As for making a profit - with promotion and marking, you are getting on to a large number, it cost more to make than Avatar 2.

They spent more money than they should have with delays and alterations, but it does not have a higher reported budget than Avatar 2.

 

[Mage]

Turkey is used to refer to outcomes not reasons why. In box office terms it was a turkey.

Maybe you have Christopher on ignore, because as he has stated twice now, the movie was number 1 in the box office during a period where ALL MOVIES did poorly because of the writer's strike. Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge.

 

[eschaton]

Maybe you have Christopher on ignore, because as he has stated twice now, the movie was number 1 in the box office during a period where ALL MOVIES did poorly because of the writer's strike. Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge.

While this is true, it's also the case that most other major studios decided to push back major releases so they wouldn't come out during the strike. IIRC, the competition at the time was mostly lower-budget horror movies and the Taylor Swift concert movie.

 

[Mage]

While this is true, it's also the case that most other major studios decided to push back major releases so they wouldn't come out during the strike. IIRC, the competition at the time was mostly lower-budget horror movies and the Taylor Swift concert movie.

Read that again.....
It won over the Taylor Swift concert movie. We all know how big the entire Taylor Swift thing is. And The Marvels made more money. During a very shitty period for the box office.

 

[JoeZhang]

Maybe you have Christopher on ignore, because as he has stated twice now, the movie was number 1 in the box office during a period where ALL MOVIES did poorly because of the writer's strike. Everyone knows this. It's common knowledge.

No I just think he talks a lot of rubbish when it comes to business matters so I just ignore it. It's balanced out by him talking a lot of sense on other stuff he knows far more than I do.

 

[JD]

It's being released in February--not a great month for movie releases. Box office is going to come down to word of mouth. I would not count the opening weekend as a prediction of its staying power if it is a good film. I'm really hoping for Winter Soldier vibes on this--it has a lot of ground to cover. It is a follow up to both Eternals and Wakanda Forever in terms of story and Endgame and FatWS in terms of characters.

And the presence of Samuel Sterns/The Leader and both Rosses could be seen as an indication that it is picks up at least a few threads from The Incredible Hulk.

I heard projections aren't good but who knows if that person was just someone with a agenda. I do think the budget is so high that their is no way the movie can make a profit but that doesn't mean it can't make enough money maybe to warrant a sequel with a more manageable budget. I think the biggest concerns is whether or not this movie going to be really so compelling that people want to go see it in the movie theater vs just waiting a bit and watching it on Disneyplus. I do also wonder what impact the LA fires will have on it. LA is a big market and I am guessing lots of people are not exactly going to be in the mood to be going to see a movie in the movies theaters.

I don't now, it could also be a time that a lot of people are going to want to escape from reality for a bit and a trip to the movie theater is a great way to do that.

 

[Jayson1]

You get multiple projections - where it starts to firm up is when you get real pre-sale numbers.

It’s possible for things to be “Leggy” and do better than expected (The Greatest Showman) even after a poor opening weekend.

As for making a profit - with promotion and marking, you are getting on to a large number, it cost more to make than Avatar 2.

The thing is I heard that after the reshoots they have spent basically 350 million dollars in making the movie and that I don't even take in account for all the advertisements and promotion. Even if it makes lots of money I don't see how they could realistically make all that money back.

 

[Rich Watson]

The thing is I heard that after the reshoots they have spent basically 350 million dollars in making the movie and that I don't even take in account for all the advertisements and promotion. Even if it makes lots of money I don't see how they could realistically make all that money back.

That number came from right-wing "comics are for white men only" assholes, so I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

 

[Anwar]

Indeed; Boyega exposed Disney/LFL for their racist handling of his character and capitulation to China's demands to marginalize him in marketing materials, which was covered in GQ and covered across many media platforms. With Disney/Marvel Studios' similarly racial suppression in the Chinese ads for Black Panther, the notion that Disney was some great beacon of progressive ideology / approach in their business practices was revealed to be complete BS regarding one of the greatest evil beliefs in history.

Uh huh, so why did they not capitulate to China over Shang Chi and the Eternals then?

And for the record, it was just one ONE of the posters that Finn was reduced. On the other ones for the same movie, his presence on them was unaltered.

Yes, at this point, its difficult to imagine any film being the box-office disaster that was The Marvels, but we will wait and see.

Funny, the same thing happened to films like "The Thing" and "The Shining" without this kind of venom attached.

 

[TREK_GOD_1]

Uh huh, so why did they not capitulate to China over Shang Chi and the Eternals then?

In case you missed it, Shang Chi did not feature / star a Black person, so there was no demand made of Disney/Marvel. but you would have known this, if you were not guided by the desperate urge to defend the MCU at every turn.

And for the record, it was just one ONE of the posters that Finn was reduced. On the other ones for the same movie, his presence on them was unaltered.

For the record, Boyega and others were correct the blistering criticism of Disney/LFL and their deliberate marginalizing of the actor (and his character) in the film and in its marketing.

 

[Jayson1]

Finn should have had a bigger role in the movies. He has the most interesting backstory with him being a former Storm Trooper.

 

[JoeZhang]

Finn should have had a bigger role in the movies. He has the most interesting backstory with him being a former Storm Trooper.

Finn was such a missed opportunity. From what I remember from the story, he was a child soldier brought up with a particular worldview. This could lead to all sorts of interesting stories and dilemmas, and Boyega is a capable actor who could do that. However, it goes nowhere, and he becomes a generic, almost side-kick-like character.

That is before we get into the disgraceful shitshow around Kelly Marie Tran.

 

[Set Harth]

You could just leave out the word "around".