TMP would struggle to make $10M in this market, let alone $241M.
Inflation adjustments are irrelevant.
Inflation adjustments are irrelevant.
First Trek To hit the 1/4 Billion mark!
- Thread starter Blue_Trek
- Start date
QFT
&
Amen.
This is a new market now, so many people have awesome entertainment systems with blu-ray and Hi-def TV's, many will be more picky about what they pay to see at the theater. As they can watch it on blue-ray now. The economy being crappy doesn't help either. Yes there are higher prices, more theaters, and more people to see these movies, but you have to motivate them to go, it has to be worth it for them.
People just won't go to a movie because the trailer looks cool anymore, they are savy enough to know that, that may be the ONLY good parts of the entire movie. They will wait for RT,Meta and other reviews or word of mouth from people they know have similar tastes in movies.
I will give you a couple example's of movies I was thinking of seeing but decided not to because of poor reviews
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wolverine/
And your going to laugh at this one
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/underworld_rise_of_the_lycans/
Both movies I was seriously considering going to but what I read on the internet made me stay home, I will catch on rental.
The game has changed, times have changed, this effects the money the theater get from picky movie goers.
I went to T4 because the previous movies buys it so much good will from me that the critics be dammed. There are some movies like that too.
Yep this is only domestic numbers. You are right that the Motion Picture didn't surpassed the 1/4 billion mark DOMESTICLY. Guess what neither has Star Trek($183 million). However the thread is misleading because it doesn't factor in inflation. People can stick their head in the sand and say that inflation adjustments are irrelevant. That doesn't change the fact that they are wrong..
If Star Trek beats TMP. Great it deserved it, but for now, TMP is number one with approx: $400 million worldwide gross adjusted for inflation. I know many don't like TMP
however they have to respect TMP not only did great at the box office. It was second or third most popular movie in 1979.
however they have to respect TMP not only did great at the box office. It was second or third most popular movie in 1979.
TMP wasn't bad at all. especially, its first half shone with authentic Trekness of the sort I've seldom encountered in the ensuing ten films, TWOK included.
it's the incessant 2nd half that ruined the film for me. it was trying too hard to be 2001. something Trek was never built to be. Wise wasn't chosen... err... wisely, methinks.
it's the incessant 2nd half that ruined the film for me. it was trying too hard to be 2001. something Trek was never built to be. Wise wasn't chosen... err... wisely, methinks.
JJ's ST has plenty of flaws, but I have such a good time watching it (four times now) that I really don't care how much better it could have been!
I also think that the more of these flaws that are paved over with tedious explanations, the more likely the general public would be scared off.
Depends on the deal that was negotiated up front.
Typically, theaters negotiate a four week engagement. They subtract out operating costs for the movie for four weeks (referred to as the nut) and usually divide it up equally over the course of the four weeks. Usually, the nut is a rather low percentage of the gross.
Next comes the distributor, who is responsible for creating all of the reels that get sent to all of the theaters. If a theater runs the movie on four screens it gets sent four reels at a cost of about $2k a piece. So, if a movie is opens on 4k screens the cost of the reels alone will cost $8m. That comes off the top. Then the distributor gets his end which can be anywhere from 10% to 50%, depending on what gets negotiated up front. Those numbers don't get reported to the public so unless somebody on the inside says something there's no way of knowing what that deal is.
So, of the approx $185m made so far, the distributor's cut could be anywhere from $18m to $90m. So, for a movie that cost $150m to make it may need to make anywhere from $170m to $250m before the studio sees a dime in profit.
Like I said, I have no clue what the terms were for Trek, just saying how it typically works.
If it makes that much it would, indeed, be excellent. Not sure how likely it is, though. It had only made about $76m as of Sunday... it's 3rd weekend in circulation. The odds of it nearly doubling that figure before it's done aren't very good considering the bulk of a movie's gross usually comes in those first four weeks.
This movie will do well on DVD. I can't see there being much doubt about that. As for where it will end up in domestic gross, though.. that will all depend on the next couple of weeks.
The competition of things coming out until Transformers 2 is iffy. There's not much coming out this weekend unless Drag Me To Hell does well (doubtful). Land of the Lost comes out the following week. Looks horrific to me but kids may like it. The Hangover comes out that week as well. It's in a different genre, though. Then not much else until Transformers 2. But, that doesn't mean that Trek will be able to capitalize on that lull. Popular as the movie may be, the majority of the people who intend to see this movie in the theater have probably already done so. And, given how many people have already seen it more than once, it's not certain how many more repeat customers they'll see.
If it gains another $50m by the time it's done it will be a surprise. But, anything's possible if the other movies don't do well.
They are not entirely irrelevant, but they are NOT as useful a comparison as you suggest. The business model has changed dramatically in 30 years--if you're not including DVD sales and rentals within a similar time span to the original film's theatrical stay, then your comparison is flawed.
Actually its the Crandell Theater.
The inflation model is this
Average Ticket prices $2.51 in 1979
Average Ticket prices $7.18 in 2009
82 Million / 2.51=32,669,322
32,669,322 x $7.18= Aprox. $235 million.
As you can see it is under the 1/4 billion mark.
I am still correct.
The international market wasn't so strong in 1979, but the personal home entertainment system didn't exist yet so those to things sort of cancel each other out.
Average Ticket prices $2.51 in 1979
Average Ticket prices $7.18 in 2009
82 Million / 2.51=32,669,322
32,669,322 x $7.18= Aprox. $235 million.
As you can see it is under the 1/4 billion mark.
I am still correct.
The international market wasn't so strong in 1979, but the personal home entertainment system didn't exist yet so those to things sort of cancel each other out.
really dvd sales should be folded in to get a more true comparision.
when star trek the motion picture came out only a few people had vcr's.
i am not even sure when it came out on video.
no waiting around for a few months for a chance to see it.
Well, in the early 80s, US TV was so popular in Japan that there was a beautiful, regular, Japanese version of "Starlog" magazine, with pages and pages of ads for Japanese language editions of the Blish and Foster ST adaptations, Bantam and Pocket novels, and all the various toys.
There was also three spectacular volumes of "Star Trek Super Visual", containing illustrated episode, character and alien guides for TOS, TAS and TMP, mini photo novel pages, and the very first photos of Saavik from ST II!
So ST was big there in the early 80s, and can surely be re-awakened.
US video release (VHS and Beta formats): October 1980
I'm not saying anyone is wrong. However, worldwide gross comparisons are hard to do. I forgot that I intentionally used domestic numbers (I had a big event to plan for yesterday... sorry). The market was different back then. Furthermore, different countries have different CPIs. You have to know which countries the movie was released in each country, then adjust the numbers for that country individually. It is easier to get roughly comparable numbers with the domestic grosses.
A couple of posters (myself included) mention that you can't use same adjusted for inflation model for overseas that you do for the US (and even thats not accurate since we aren't taking into account that many of Trek's releases hit different years and thus the average price is marginally different).
And since actual ticket sales (number of bodies) in the theater figures aren't easily available (to us fans) we can't use that (and even that then needs to get broken down by was it a matinee or a full price ticket to be really accurate).
For example they use an average f0r the year of 1979 for the inflation adjustment.
So they are taking the average ticket price for Jan-Dec of 1979.
Yet this film played from Dec 79 to say Feb or March of 80. And unlike films now days, films sales were anywhere near as front loaded.
So that adjusted figure is actually going to be a little more favorable to Motion Picture (most likely) as prices haven't in general declined in any period that Trek has aired.
But it still is the best way us fans can gauge a films performance for comparisons.
But on audience level this film has passed Search for Spock, with Khan falling sometime this week, leaving Voyage Home (which will be passed in attendance by the end of next weekend, assuming the film doesn't collapse) leaving Motion Picture which on attendance I haven't actually heard any info).
And since actual ticket sales (number of bodies) in the theater figures aren't easily available (to us fans) we can't use that (and even that then needs to get broken down by was it a matinee or a full price ticket to be really accurate).
For example they use an average f0r the year of 1979 for the inflation adjustment.
So they are taking the average ticket price for Jan-Dec of 1979.
Yet this film played from Dec 79 to say Feb or March of 80. And unlike films now days, films sales were anywhere near as front loaded.
So that adjusted figure is actually going to be a little more favorable to Motion Picture (most likely) as prices haven't in general declined in any period that Trek has aired.
But it still is the best way us fans can gauge a films performance for comparisons.
But on audience level this film has passed Search for Spock, with Khan falling sometime this week, leaving Voyage Home (which will be passed in attendance by the end of next weekend, assuming the film doesn't collapse) leaving Motion Picture which on attendance I haven't actually heard any info).
Actually that 76 million figure is where it ended for Thursday in its overseas venues. Its estimated numbers for the 3 day weekend (as it isn't a holiday overseas) is 87.5. I said it should be very close to 90 million for Monday and it looks like it will be 89 million so I think I was fairly close. It should hit 100 million by Friday or Saturday of this coming week. With 2 major markets yet to open (even if Trek has a history of poor performance in Japan, I honestly have no idea of Mexico). At worst I see a 120 million as films overseas (that do actually do business and this is doing business) often manage 3.3 to 4 multipliers). The real key is if Japan can do so moderate sized business. If it can breakout (for Trek) then thats my upper total of 135.
I assume that it wont truly breakout in Japan or Mexico (if both truly did) then that would easily push it over 150 million.
But this film (for Trek) is a resounding success overseas. Its up wayyyyyyy up in the english speaking countries (UK, New Zealand, Australia) and is far exceeding the totals of of all treks (with the possible exception of Motion Picture).
On the issue of the Motion Picture I have read some things that make it seem that based on attendance it will be passed at a much lower box office dollar amount (but I can't find a link). If I can find it, I will certainly post it.
I can believe that the average ticket price in 1979 was $2.51 since, like I said, I seem to remember paying around $1.50 matinee to see movies back then. I find it difficult to believe that the avreage price today is $7.18, though. Not for first run movies, anyway. While there may be some cheaper movie houses out there, I suspect they are few and far between. Pittsburgh is a relatively low cost of living zone and you're not likely to find many matinee prices below $7, with evening showings going for $9 and up.
If data is showing a national average of $7.18 somewhere it's likely because they are including 2nd run theaters. I mean, up until last year I could go to the local Star City and see a movie on Tuesday's for 50 cents, but they were several months old... some were already on video at the time they showed them. Sadly, it's closed down but those types of theaters shouldn't be factored into the average price of a ticket. Current prices TODAY for this movie have to be over $8.
$11m overseas seems a bit high considering that it only made about $22m here over the same time period. Anything is possible, I guess.
Don't get me wrong, for a Trek movie it's doing well overseas. I simply don't think it's going to have the legs there that it's had here. Not when franchise films like Terminator have been far and away more successful overseas than Trek.
T3 made $150m here but ended up grossing over $400m worldwide. Whether or not T4 will have the same success is anybody's guess, but the movie is widely considered better than T3 and is on pace with it here in the states.
Last edited:
Today I took in my fourth screening of the film, a matinee on a warm and gorgeous Memorial Day afternoon, on the film's third weekend of release. All those factors should have held down the turnout, right? Wrong. The theater I went to seats about 400, 2/3 of which is inclined stadium-style seating, and it looked as though most of the stadium section and even the back two rows of the forward section were filled up. And people were still reacting to key moments in the film, laughing at all the in-jokes, etc. So, no surprise that the film is continuing to do well at the box office. My guess is it won't really start to drop off until Transformers arrives.
BTW here's an interesting side note: The theater I want to today is part of the AMC chain, and before the regular trailers they run this fake trailer that's actually a "turn your cell phones off" reminder. I immediately recognized one of the actors in this fake AMC "trailer" as none other than Dominic Keating (from the Enterprise TV series).
BTW here's an interesting side note: The theater I want to today is part of the AMC chain, and before the regular trailers they run this fake trailer that's actually a "turn your cell phones off" reminder. I immediately recognized one of the actors in this fake AMC "trailer" as none other than Dominic Keating (from the Enterprise TV series).
Similar threads
