Star Trek is still a nice pay check and it is the only one of those franchises, where she looks like herself on the screen. That might be also worth something to her.
Does anyone know how Beyond is tracking for its opening weekend?
- Thread starter VOODOOXI
- Start date
Star Trek is still a nice pay check and it is the only one of those franchises, where she looks like herself on the screen. That might be also worth something to her.
You don't know that. These movies are incredibly expensive to market 100M+ easily. The theaters also get a cut of the overall revenue. They say these movies need to make 2.5 times their budget to break even at the box office.
I don't think that means anything. Fantastic Four 2, and Terminator Genisys 2 were also planned. The timing of the announcement of ST4 was odd, and suggests that it was done to help generate good PR for the current film.
Suicide Squad is another cookie-cutter C-level comic book turd.
Not worried in the slightest about that one.
Okay, things are not looking good. Not only was the weekday box office inexplicably low but based on the early Friday numbers . . . . we could be looking at as much as a 60% drop this weekend ($23-24m range). I was certain STB would get near a 3 multiplier but given this terrible number and Suicide Squads' opening next week, by the time STB stabilizes it will be too late. Originally I thought STB would finish in the range of Mission Impossible - Rouge Nation ($190-200m). Now I'm afraid we could be looking at something more in the X-Men Apocalypse range ($150-160m). I just don't get it.
In other news, Jason Bourne is killing it and might end up exceeding estimates up to and beyond $60m. Not that I dislike Damon and the series but I didn't expect it to do quite that well. Bad Moms is also doing pretty well for that type of movie but STB is not in direct competition with Bad Moms for our target audience the way we are with Bourne.
Overseas there's nothing good to report. Bourne looks like it's going to do almost double the OW that STB did last week. It is apparently doing well in the UK (though I haven't seen the numbers) while STB couldn't even get past BFG last week. These were two of STID's biggest overseas markets and the drop in interest seems to be following the same trend it is here in North America. I was expecting a bump in Asia but if Hong Kong is any indicator . . . We are in big, big trouble. It has crashed and burned there. Not only won't it reach STID levels, it might not match ST09 levels. And again, this weekend in Hong Kong - Bourne is killing it!!! *sigh*
Granted, we are still in the first 10 days of our box office war with many battles ahead but the ones we have begun we are losing (even in battlegrounds where we had historically had success). I'd classify this portion of the campaign an unmitigated disaster!!!
We might be looking at almost a 40% drop from ST09 domestically and almost a 30% drop from STID across the board in its currently released markets. I just can't wrap my mind around that. There's no way that Latin America and Asia can make up that difference. I'm to the point now where I just hope they don't also DECREASE on us.
I know ST reboot 4 has been announced but I foresee some major tinkering and possibly a slashed budget. If Paramount was able to sign Quinto, Pine and Hemsworth to less up front in exchange for points on the back end, those would be some amazingly valuable contracts right now. Cause Trek needs to start costing what the current Bourne did ($120m) to be made back into a sure fire money making movie franchise again.
In hindsight . . . . Why did they bump STB fron July 8 to July 22 again? Because of comicon? Dumb, dumb, dumb. I bet they regret that now.
In other news, Jason Bourne is killing it and might end up exceeding estimates up to and beyond $60m. Not that I dislike Damon and the series but I didn't expect it to do quite that well. Bad Moms is also doing pretty well for that type of movie but STB is not in direct competition with Bad Moms for our target audience the way we are with Bourne.
Overseas there's nothing good to report. Bourne looks like it's going to do almost double the OW that STB did last week. It is apparently doing well in the UK (though I haven't seen the numbers) while STB couldn't even get past BFG last week. These were two of STID's biggest overseas markets and the drop in interest seems to be following the same trend it is here in North America. I was expecting a bump in Asia but if Hong Kong is any indicator . . . We are in big, big trouble. It has crashed and burned there. Not only won't it reach STID levels, it might not match ST09 levels. And again, this weekend in Hong Kong - Bourne is killing it!!! *sigh*
Granted, we are still in the first 10 days of our box office war with many battles ahead but the ones we have begun we are losing (even in battlegrounds where we had historically had success). I'd classify this portion of the campaign an unmitigated disaster!!!
We might be looking at almost a 40% drop from ST09 domestically and almost a 30% drop from STID across the board in its currently released markets. I just can't wrap my mind around that. There's no way that Latin America and Asia can make up that difference. I'm to the point now where I just hope they don't also DECREASE on us.
I know ST reboot 4 has been announced but I foresee some major tinkering and possibly a slashed budget. If Paramount was able to sign Quinto, Pine and Hemsworth to less up front in exchange for points on the back end, those would be some amazingly valuable contracts right now. Cause Trek needs to start costing what the current Bourne did ($120m) to be made back into a sure fire money making movie franchise again.
In hindsight . . . . Why did they bump STB fron July 8 to July 22 again? Because of comicon? Dumb, dumb, dumb. I bet they regret that now.
There is so much about financing and tax breaks that we don't know, that we really don't know what the break-even point for Beyond is. The fall-off from the other two Abrams films is troubling though and I think the possibility exists that they reboot again rather than make another sequel. I think there will be another Star Trek movie. I just don't know what form it will take.
Time will tell.
It's true there's a lot we don't know. That said, I think whether or not ST4 gets made will tell us all we need to know about how Beyond fared financially
If Beyond does fail financially, I can't imagine that they'd reboot ST again anytime soon. It would be a long wait I think.
Also, for the franchise as a whole, if Beyond doesn't make money, and ST4 is canned, I think that puts tremendous pressure on Discovery.
Paramount doesn't have much else. I think the possibility exists for Micheal Bay's Star Trek though...
Not sure there will be any pressure (or additional pressure, I'm sure Fuller and company are under tremendous pressure). Two different companies. Though I imagine CBS is keeping an eye on Beyond's box office. Trying to figure out exactly what it is people want out of Star Trek.
They are getting desperate. They lost a bunch of money so far this year, and there's changes going on behind the scenes.
I mean pressure in a sense that it could be the last hope for keeping the Star Trek franchise alive. If Beyond isn't profitable, and ST4 is canned, then what happens if Discovery flops? Trek would be dead IMO, or at least go dormant for a long time.
Michael Bay's Star Trek... ABSOLUTELY NOT!!
Unfortunately, you never know. Though I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we get Star Trek 4.
I think we will get it, honestly. I'm looking at tomorrow's movie times.
I'm looking at tomorrow's movie times.
I've seen it twice, and I was more impressed with it the second time around. And, I gave it an 'A' after the first viewing. It is a fun film.
I've already agreed to see it for a second time with my co-worker.I've seen it twice, and I was more impressed with it the second time around. And, I gave it an 'A' after the first viewing. It is a fun film.
This.
Star Trek does not have the widespread appeal like Star Wars or the Marvel franchise does. It's not a massive blockbuster franchise. It's fairly mid-level. Though I can't imagine Paramount ceasing production on Star Trek; it IS their biggest franchise at the moment.
Star Trek is still, in my opinion, trying to overcome the stigma that it has with general audiences. No, it's not for everyone, but I think as a movie franchise, it's in better shape now than it was 15-20 years ago. I don't know if the earlier movies were too successful at catering to a general audience. Sure, Wrath of Khan, The Voyage Home, First Contact may have succeeded with general audiences on some level, but Generations, Insurrection, Nemesis - to me, those always felt like they were for Trekkies only.
Are we strong enough to push a Trek film into the billion dollar range? As much as I (and the rest of us) loved Beyond, are we able to push a Star Trek film into the billion dollar range?
This is absolutely true. I can't tell you the number of friends I have who are Star Wars fans that LOATHED Force Awakens, but went and saw it multiple times anyway just to be sure it was as bad as they thought it was.
Us Trekkies, if we hate a new Star Trek property, we see it once (so we can legitimately complain about how much we hated it on message boards) and never again.
The original point of my reply sort of lost its way in here.
I have to agree with Amasov. I think we give up too fast (as fans of Trek) and we don't see it. We don't think of the effect our actions have on the health and longevity of the franchise. I also know SW fans who hated TFA and went multiple times. I was flabbergasted because I will freely admit I only watched STID twice.
Transformers is CLEARLY Paramounts biggest franchise. Mission Impossible would be second (it far exceeds ST Worldwide) with Star Trek third.
Older viewers in general aren't repeat viewers and they often don't feel the need to run out and see a movie right away (opening weekend). What is hurting the franchise is the lack of younger fans combined with technology and how society views movies (as events) rather than how the industry worked 20 years ago.
Unfortunately XM:A will end up around $550m worldwide and be considered a disappointment. STB could end up $100-150m below THAT for its Worldwide cume.
STB is not only going to finish behind Bourne and Bad Moms this weekend, it might even finish behind PETS.
Roughly speaking, ST09 made about $175 Box Office on a $150m budget. STID made about $200m BO on a $200m budget. STB looks like it will end up making around $155m on a $185m budget. This means when STB hits its secondary revenue streams it not only has to cover its entire P&A budget before turning a profit but also the remaining $30m of its production budget too.
Forget going to see the movie several times to help the franchise, that horse has left the barn. Everyone needs to buy the expensive special edition Blu-Rays for STB and buy multiple copies. Everyone on your Christmas list should get one this year! And those friends and family who live far away . . . . Buy them a digital version online! ;-)
Be sure to email this to Paramount because they haven't had a great year and the Star Trek movie that was supposed to be one of their few bright moments is looking more and more like a waning franchise.
My guess is that some people get fired, they try a new direction and go all in on the 4th with a budget in the $160-170m range. But it will either sink or swim the franchise in terms of more sequels.
Now my $155m box office revenue estimate was from a worldwide cume of around $410-415m. If the totals drop below $375m. All bets are off, enjoy the TV series.
Similar threads
