Does anyone know how Beyond is tracking for its opening weekend?

[KGator]

I see it hitting 200 million. if it performs the same way as trek 09 and STID. I see it hitting 210 million.

Jason Bourne may not be a threat bus the film is getting mixed to negative reviews.

If STB performs like ST09 (2.9 muliplier) it will reach $175m. If it performs similar to STID it should reach $184m.

I don't see Bourne as a huge threat other than the fact that both movies target an older audience.

But Suicide Squad is a big threat

True, expect a bigger than normal drop the weekend of Suicide Squad. Even if it stabilizes the weekends after that, it is going to have an effect on the final tally.

 

[Relayer1]

The cinema was almost empty when I went. Admittedly it was an early show, but it was 11.45, not 10am, and the kids are on holiday now. I'd have expected more than a handful there, especially in a main city multiplex cinema.

I think there were seven including my son and I. There was no queue for the next showing when we came out either.

 

[ralph]

Premiere in São Paulo/Brazil is july 30, IMAX. Almost sold out.

 

[KGator]

Premiere in São Paulo/Brazil is july 30, IMAX. Almost sold out.

There may be a lot of negatives so far in STB's box office but IMAX isn't one of them. Apparently IMAX for this movie is killing it. Especially compared to the previous movies. And since that is a higher ticket price, it is helping support what box office we do have.

 

[Smellmet]

There may be a lot of negatives so far in STB's box office but IMAX isn't one of them. Apparently IMAX for this movie is killing it. Especially compared to the previous movies. And since that is a higher ticket price, it is helping support what box office we do have.

Overall the take/trend is below STID though, regardless of the IMAX figures. I can't see Beyond making 500 million worldwide now, and probably not the 467million that STID did either. Time will tell.

 

[Dales]

But Suicide Squad is a big threat

Suicide Squad is coming out next week which will be fine for Trek after two weeks but SS will need to have good word of mouth like trek to keep its legs.

Even if SS does 300m, it would not stop trek from hitting 200m.

Right now Warner Brothers is going out of this world to promote Suicide Squad.

 

[KGator]

Suicide Squad is coming out next week which will be fine for Trek after two weeks but SS will need to have good word of mouth like trek to keep its legs.

Even if SS does 300m, it would not stop trek from hitting 200m.

Right now Warner Brothers is going out of this world to promote Suicide Squad.

And with SS being a comic book movie it won't have good legs. Hell, BvS fell just below a 2 multiplier. Civil War didn't even reach a 2.3. These movies are frontloaded. SS will probably need close to a $150m just to guarantee hitting $300m total. Of course, a movie that draws $140-150m & $80-90m in its first two weekends is going to impact the take of other recent releases. That has to be assumed.

The problem is, that based on the history of the series, even without Suicide Squad opening up . . . STB has very little shot at making $200m. That's just not how the box office works. People don't just say, I really want to watch movie X but I WON'T go the opening weekend because I just don't want to. It is all relative. Take a movie like Tarzan that has shown very good legs . . . it will still peak out at around $145-150m because of its lesser opening weekend. A good rule of thumb is that big budget movies tend to make 40% of their overall gross in the opening weekend. Sliding this a few percentage points either way isn't going to push STB to 200 million. The series is showing a consistent decline in it's biggest territories (US, UK, AUST, GER). To think that all these new people are going to suddenly become fans and run out of nowhere into the theater is . . . well, as Spock would put it . . . . highly illogical.

 

[Smellmet]

It's going to have to rely on a good take in China to stand any chance of a decent worldwide gross now methinks.

 

[JoeZhang]

Only hit number two in opening weekend in UK.

 

[CorporalClegg]

I suspect SS might last longer than other comic films on the account it's about the bad guys. People might find that different and refreshing.

 

[ralph]

I suspect SS might last longer than other comic films on the account it's about the bad guys. People might find that different and refreshing.

I think so too. I think STB will reach $ 185-190 (USA). But internationally, I´m hopeful, perhaps the same that STID or, who knows, almost $ 500 Worldwide.

 

[wjaspers]

More importantly, it is under the “adjusted for inflation” opening of Star Trek: First Contact ($30m in 1996, $60m today) and when you throw in 3D/IMAX/PLF price bumps it’s not that much higher than the $47m adjusted debut of Star Trek: Generations.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...59-million-weekend-is-just-okay/#3a415daad415

 

[timtonruben359]

The first round of box office projections for the weekend of July 29 are out and Beyond is expected to drop out of the number one spot and will likely fall to second place with a projection of approx $28 million. However there is a small chance it could fall to third as Bad Moms is being projected at just slightly under performing Beyond at about $26 million.

 

[Alex1939]

Image removed by mod.

 

[ralph]

I noticed small increase in some countries (compared with STID).
Opening Wknd:
Bulgaria $48,560 ($25,769)
Hungary $212,535 ($188,793)

In others almost the same thing
Italy $961,064 ($1,149,320)

Others, box office was down more than 30%
Australia $2,989,104 ($5,273,397 )
Russia - CIS $3,378,401 ($6,148,463)
It does not look good.

 

[Smellmet]

At this point, it may not even make 400million worldwide.

 

[ralph]

At this point, it may not even make 400million worldwide.

It may surprise, but it is difficult.

Independence Day: Resurgence
Box office Worldwide: $361,028,756
Critics say it is not a total flop.

Well, I am still optimist. I hope the same STID box office overseas.

 

[Trajet]

If it tops out at $175-180m at the US box office, and the international box office is as soft as it's been in the UK, Star Trek Beyond could possibly be the lowest grossing of the reboot series.

It might not be a financial disaster, but I'm expecting a considerably smaller budget for the next Trek movie, assuming they don't decide to pull the plug before the law of diminishing returns really takes hold. Star Trek really doesn't have enough mass appeal to support production budgets of $185m or more.

 

[Admiral Bear]

At this point, it may not even make 400million worldwide.

I would say somewhere around $350-$380m is more likely. It's dying hard in most territories, although nowhere near as badly as Ghostbusters . The most worrying thing is how badly Beyond's doing in its main European Trek fan base ie UK and Germany.

Marketing and distribution costs are supposed to be in excess of $100m, so if the final worldwide gross is around $350m, any profit Beyond turns will be in the form of small change.

 

[Trajet]

What do we think is to blame for Star Trek Beyond's 'underperformance' at the international box office - competition, sequel fatigue, misjudged marketing or a delayed backlash towards Star Trek Into Darkness?