On the money as far as I can see. In 20 years computers won't even function without Internet connectivity. Instead of buying software you then own, you'll have to subscribe to it for a monthly rate. "Monetizing" is indeed the term: While the geek priesthood is good at what they do, they don't have your best interests at heart. They want you in a dependent position.
Which is the start of the trend. But I can see a day when you won't be able to type a Word document on your own. Microsoft won't let Word off its servers at any time, and when you want to use Word, the server will download only the needed code and then erase it as soon as each command or set of commands is completed. I assume bandwidth constraints have limited Microsoft's ability to implement such a regime up to now; these are rapidly disappearing.
Ever picked up a Google Chromebook? It requires a connection for pretty much any application.
http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/
I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.
It's also worth remembering that the people that need to adopt the technology in order for it to really become common are the "selfie/snapchat/facebook" crowd whose technology usage is primarily driven by narcissism and the need to draw attention to themselves. They want technology that will help display themselves to the world, not that will display the world to them. VR has much the same problem unless developers start finding ways of producing hyper-realistic avatars based on the person using the VR set.
There's also the fact that 4k is tremendous overkill for most of the programming people watch on TV in the first place. It's almost understandable if you're watching, say, Prometheus on a 90 inch TV in your home theatre system. But then your kids turn on Cartoon Network in the middle of the afternoon and you notice that Adventure Time in 4k isn't all that impressive after all.
People who like porn.Virtual reality is for folks who can't handle actual reality.
Who is the Internet for, then?
I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.
When you say "cloud" do you mean the Internet in general, or specifically storing and backup of personal files on "cloud" servers? Such storage can chew up bandwidth very rapidly, especially if one has a data capped plan. Also, lots of people simply do not trust cloud services with potentially sensitive material.
But it's high tech! That's reason enough to use it! Singularity!
I'd lump VR/AR in the same category as 3D and video phones. The technology has been around for a long time, and it's an exciting novelty to play with. But when the novelty wears off, very few actually adopt the new technology for everyday use.
As for 4K, more is not always better. Digital signal processing and transmission did more to improve video than resolution. That is, even contemporary video that is below "Standard Definition" looks vastly better than pre-digital systems.
In my opinion 4K/UHDTV is overkill for the living room. I imagine it will become commonplace one day, by default, but right now the increase in resolution is not so striking that it will leave 2K/HDTV in the dust. I'm talking from experience—seen it, worked with it. (VR/AR, too.)
Just like with touch screens, it's about performance, usability and content. No one cared about tablets until the iPhone and iPad came along, which combined high performance with good usability and lots of content. Oculus/VR goggles are only an inch away from taking off, there is a lot of potential in games, and a lot of other use cases. It still lacks in latency, resolution, and in the usability/user experience. AR glasses are further away. Epson Moverio has been a big step forward, with a large stereo display, but the performance is horrible and the trackpad is terrible. Microsoft Hololens looks promising, but it depends if the execution matches the concept video. The industry is longing for VR and AR, especially AR, for marketing, production and technical documentation.I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.
When you say "cloud" do you mean the Internet in general, or specifically storing and backup of personal files on "cloud" servers? Such storage can chew up bandwidth very rapidly, especially if one has a data capped plan. Also, lots of people simply do not trust cloud services with potentially sensitive material.
But it's high tech! That's reason enough to use it! Singularity!
I'd lump VR/AR in the same category as 3D and video phones. The technology has been around for a long time, and it's an exciting novelty to play with. But when the novelty wears off, very few actually adopt the new technology for everyday use.
As for 4K, more is not always better. Digital signal processing and transmission did more to improve video than resolution. That is, even contemporary video that is below "Standard Definition" looks vastly better than pre-digital systems.
In my opinion 4K/UHDTV is overkill for the living room. I imagine it will become commonplace one day, by default, but right now the increase in resolution is not so striking that it will leave 2K/HDTV in the dust. I'm talking from experience—seen it, worked with it. (VR/AR, too.)
