Augmented and virtual reality to disrupt mobile by 2020

[RAMA]

http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/
I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.

 

[Awesome Possum]

I'm hoping that Oculus Rift takes off. I got to try one and it's pretty amazing. It's what everyone was wanting when VR failed to take off in the 90s.

 

[Metryq]

I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.

When you say "cloud" do you mean the Internet in general, or specifically storing and backup of personal files on "cloud" servers? Such storage can chew up bandwidth very rapidly, especially if one has a data capped plan. Also, lots of people simply do not trust cloud services with potentially sensitive material.

But it's high tech! That's reason enough to use it! Singularity!

I'd lump VR/AR in the same category as 3D and video phones. The technology has been around for a long time, and it's an exciting novelty to play with. But when the novelty wears off, very few actually adopt the new technology for everyday use.

As for 4K, more is not always better. Digital signal processing and transmission did more to improve video than resolution. That is, even contemporary video that is below "Standard Definition" looks vastly better than pre-digital systems.

In my opinion 4K/UHDTV is overkill for the living room. I imagine it will become commonplace one day, by default, but right now the increase in resolution is not so striking that it will leave 2K/HDTV in the dust. I'm talking from experience—seen it, worked with it. (VR/AR, too.)

 

[HIjol]

Oculus Rift was out of Melbourne, yeah? They had that Anthem Rock song about William Gibson being correct, or being God, or something...I can't remember...

Seriously, Rama , I like the stuff you find! Man, if we could only glimpse what will really be! Other than being rich as Biff Tannen, we would know some pretty cool shit! I am hoping for the day that VR and AR, and whatever other platforms we come up with, DO approach the "world" as Gibson described it. Not in my lifetime, I think! Talk about an Augmented Reality version of "Holo-Addiction"!

 

[BillJ]

In my opinion 4K/UHDTV is overkill for the living room. I imagine it will become commonplace one day, by default, but right now the increase in resolution is not so striking that it will leave 2K/HDTV in the dust. I'm talking from experience—seen it, worked with it. (VR/AR, too.)

I love my 4K TV. But until we get an actual disc based system for it (Blu-ray 4K?), streaming isn't much better than a 1080p Blu-ray disc. And I'd rather have the 1080p disc because it offers consistent performance.

 

[Hatshepsut]

I don't have a personal need for virtual reality to feel adequately entertained, and even less likely to want a device I would wear while walking about. Nonetheless VR has serious applications as well, in underwater archaeology (see Drap et al for instance) and in medicine. So I like the idea of its development.

 

[Awesome Possum]

I don't have a personal need for virtual reality to feel adequately entertained, and even less likely to want a device I would wear while walking about. Nonetheless VR has serious applications as well, in underwater archaeology (see Drap et al for instance) and in medicine. So I like the idea of its development.

If you enjoy gaming on any level the new ones actually do make you feel like you're in the game. I got to play around with the Oculus Rift last year. There was a demo where you're just on an amusement park ride and I actually got a slight adrenaline rush. I kept having to convince myself that I was just sitting in an office chair and it wasn't real. There's no lag with your head movements so it just feels completely natural.

 

[Hatshepsut]

I got to play around with the Oculus Rift last year...

Palmer Luckey's thing. Looks like a fair bet he'll get rich off it. My understanding is a device for content developers is out but no date for consumer version as yet. Looks a bit too woozy for those of us whose head movements themselves are what lags. I think it would be interesting to have the Egyptian temple at Karnak put on it. It would give you a real feel for what you see in that passageway where Thutmose had his smiting scene. There are photos but the perspective isn't right, because the carved mural looks down on the viewer to impress, with a lot of architecture framing it.

 

[USS Triumphant]

I don't care that much about VR. It'll be cool and all, but the killer app I'm looking forward to is thought control for computers. The day I can Google and type by thinking will be the day I make a lot of progress on the novels I want to write, and woe be unto Facebook and TrekBBS, also.

Also, the sound of my birth will be every phone in the world ringing at once.

 

[Tim Walker]

I believe that 3D has been a fad several times. Never quite took hold.

As for VR, I have come across comments that people don't really like wearing that thingie on their faces.

 

[B.J.]

Also, the sound of my birth will be every phone in the world ringing at once.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

I'd probably get an Oculus or whatever ends up being the best version of that technology.

I don't see AR being all that useful except maybe in cars. As a wise man recently said, "Google Glass is a prophylactic." Anything similar to that will be, too.

 

[Awesome Possum]

Google Glass is just too awkward to wear around in public, I tried a pair and wasn't impressed. Maybe some sort of contact lens could work. That's in the very early stages. I've seen tests where they can put LEDs on them that light up when on the eye.

 

[Tim Walker]

I don't see AR being all that useful except maybe in cars. As a wise man recently said, "Google Glass is a prophylactic." Anything similar to that will be, too.

As for cars, a Heads Up Display is much more likely.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.

The difference is, cloud computing and 4K weren't old fads that died 20 years ago and are now rising to eat brainz.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

I'm sure we'll hear from the same people who said the cloud wouldn't take off and that 4K was going nowhere.

The difference is, cloud computing and 4K weren't old fads that died 20 years ago and are now rising to eat brainz.

"Cloud computing," as it's called now, is little more than the revival of the pre-1980s mainframe mentality. Back then, all your data was kept on a central server, too, and your "computer" was just a dumb terminal. The transition in the '80s and '90s was to make desktop computers more and more powerful so they could do more work and storage locally. We've now moved back in the other direction because it turns out people do value the convenience of centralized storage that's accessible from anywhere, and it's a lot more financially attractive to monetize data stored on a corporate server than sell people solutions for setting it up at home. It's shitty but it's what it is.

4K in the home is new, but it's (relatively) old technology at this point. It's just become cheap enough to have in home TVs and there is finally (some) content to justify having it.

As for VR, back when it was being pushed the computing power just wasn't up to snuff. People were trying to make a market out of something nobody really wanted. At this point, VR is a natural enhancement to the gaming experience, since graphics are nearly photorealistic now and the quality improvements have largely plateaued.

 

[Ithekro]

I remember testing some VR for a research company back in the 90s. It was going to be a console version of I think Virtual World's game, but I never went ot Vitual World, just know that it was Mechwarrior-like.

It was fairly neat, if sort of bulky having the googles on, but I liked that they were still testing it with a PC joystick rather than a game pad. The ability to see just by turning the head was at least marginally useful in the game, also that at least some of the weapons tracked with you helped. But that was 20 years ago.

 

[Mudd]

RAMA's trying to pretend he was right about something?

Virtual reality is for folks who can't handle actual reality.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

Virtual reality is for folks who can't handle actual reality.

Who is the Internet for, then? People who can't communicate in real life?

 

[{ Emilia }]

Virtual reality is for folks who can't handle actual reality.

That's the forum post equivalent of a Wachowski movie.

Looks good but makes no sense once you switch on your brain.