And the Next Cancelled Show is...

[Agent Richard07]

Maybe they can do a decent wrap-up. They won't be able to finish the alphabet though.

I hope that Cristin Milioti lands something good after this.

 

[Guy Gardener]

I'm quite liking the paranoid ravings of Big Bird.

She's special.

...

Oh dear...

• NBC Cancels Bad Judge
• NBC Cancels A To Z

 

[jayceee]

Even though I stopped doing my ratings threads 2 years ago I still keep an eye on them so based off the start of the season here are my predictions for what could be cancelled...

* = Cancelled
** = Likely to be Cancelled
*** = 50/50
**** = Safe

CBS

Hawaii Five-0 ***
Person Of Interest ***

H50 and POI are the only two CBS shows I still regularly watch. Though I find both shows are starting to show their age. They don't seem as exciting as previous seasons.

With that being said, I suspect the fate of these two shows will be determined by what contracts the original cast signed up for, and whether they continue to fall in overall audience numbers. Both shows are hovering around the 9-9.5 million viewers mark.

Going back to canceled CBS shows over the last few years, the final seasons of CSI NY and Miami were also hovering around 9 million viewers.


With respect to the contracts the cast members signed up for originally, the question is whether they signed up for 5 or 6 years (or less). Most of the precise details are probably not public information.

Probably no point in renewing contracts for a show with falling viewer numbers, unless there's something else going on.

 

[jayceee]

My speculation for "Person of Interest", is it ends up being shunted off into the Friday or Sunday evening time slot. (Assuming the overall audience numbers and live+SD ratings don't completely fall off a cliff).

With CSI hovering around the 8-9 million viewers mark and a recent cut in the number of episodes from 22 to 18, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being canceled.

http://tvline.com/2014/10/22/csi-season-15-episode-order-cbs/

Harder to say what will happen to Hawaii Five-0. (It's already in the Friday night death slot).

 

[May 20]

It would be nice to see POI get a decent wrap-up when the time comes, not that I'm wishing that any time soon. I just don't want to see it vanish and leave a bunch of loose ends blowing in the wind.

 

[Jax]

Elementary came back to just a 1.3 demo rating (around 8 million) last night and thats another show I love but you see the lead in and its no surprise + Oct launch for it It still might get a 4th season on fridays or sundays because 4 seasons = decent rerun package and CBS owns the show fully I believe rather than just air it.

I wouldn't read anything into the October launch - all of CBS's Thursday night shows were delayed until October because of Thursday Night Football (except for The Big Bang Theory, because of its massive ratings). And Elementary is almost guaranteed a fourth season because of syndication, but I don't really see why they'd move it - even TV by the Numbers, which has a rather pessimistic view when it comes to show renewals, has it listed as "certain to be renewed" for exactly that reason.

1.2 in the finals and I agree CBS will most likely give it some sort of a 4th season & final season but CBS has never ever been afraid to pull the trigger on a show at any point so it will have to improve over the 1.2 over the year and am guessing no one knew it was coming back so those numbers might jump.

H50 and POI are the only two CBS shows I still regularly watch. Though I find both shows are starting to show their age. They don't seem as exciting as previous seasons.

With that being said, I suspect the fate of these two shows will be determined by what contracts the original cast signed up for, and whether they continue to fall in overall audience numbers. Both shows are hovering around the 9-9.5 million viewers mark.

Demo counts more than total viewers generally and in terms of those 2 shows...

H50 will be at 118 episodes after the enlarged order for season 5 so that might be enough for CBS and they could wrap it or even move it to the current CSI slot next season to burn off 1 more season to add episodes to syndication.

POI I would suspect would get some sort of a 5th season though its more Arc liked nature makes it a harder sell for re runs.

 

[jayceee]

H50 will be at 118 episodes after the enlarged order for season 5 so that might be enough for CBS and they could wrap it or even move it to the current CSI slot next season to burn off 1 more season to add episodes to syndication.

POI I would suspect would get some sort of a 5th season though its more Arc liked nature makes it a harder sell for re runs.

Another thing I suspect which may work against POI, is that CBS does not own it. It is owned by Warner.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1839578/companycredits


On the other hand, H50 is owned by CBS.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1600194/companycredits


However "Person of Interest" continues, it might require Warner to bend over backwards to keep it on the air, if the ratings aren't doing as well.

 

[tomswift2002]

H50 will be at 118 episodes after the enlarged order for season 5 so that might be enough for CBS and they could wrap it or even move it to the current CSI slot next season to burn off 1 more season to add episodes to syndication.

118 episodes, CBS already has more than enough episodes for syndication, so this might be the final season.

 

[jayceee]

Demo counts more than total viewers generally and in terms of those 2 shows...

IIRC, advertisers mainly pay attention to the C3 ratings.

A recent article made the assertion that the C3 ratings are closest numerically to the 18-49 demo live+SD ratings.

http://www.mediapost.com/publicatio...gramsame-day-ratings-a-good-proxy-for-c3.html

(If I had to guess, it's probably more of a numerical coincidence in the data, than anything fundamental).

 

[jayceee]

For perspective, here's a list of final adjusted 18-49 demo live+sd ratings of episodes from this season's CBS scripted shows aired so far. (Culled from tvbythenumbers). I didn't bother with the sitcoms.


Sunday

Madam Secretary
1 - 2.0, 2 - 1.4, 3 - 1.6, 4 - 1.4, 5 - 1.5, 6 - 1.5

The Good Wife
1 - 1.4, 2 - 1.3, 3 - 1.4, 4 - 1.3, 5 - 1.4, 6 - 1.5

CSI
1 - 1.3, 2 - 1.3, 3 - 1.4, 4 - 1.4


Monday

Scorpion
1 - 3.2, 2 - 3.1, 3 - 2.6, 4 - 2.4, 5 - 2.4, 6 - 2.3

NCIS Los Angeles
1 - 1.9, 2 - 1.7, 3 - 1.6, 4 - 1.7, 5 - 1.6


Tuesday

NCIS
1 - 2.9, 2 - 2.6, 3 - 2.6, 4 - 2.5, 5 - 2.4, 6 - 2.6

NCIS New Orleans
1 - 2.5, 2 - 2.3, 3 - 2.3, 4 - 2.2, 5 - 2.4, 6 - 2.3

Person of Interest
1 - 1.7, 2 - 1.8, 3 - 1.6, 4 - 1.5, 5 - 1.5, 6 - 1.7


Wednesday

Criminal Minds
1 - 2.7, 2 - 2.3, 3 - 2.4, 4 - 2.5, 5 - 2.3

Stalker
1 - 2.0, 2 - 1.7, 3 - 1.7, 4 - 1.7, 5 - 1.6


Thursday

Elementary
1 - 1.2


Friday

Hawaii Five-0
1 - 1.2, 2 - 1.3, 3 - 1.2, 4 - 1.2, 5 - 1.1

Blue Bloods
1 - 1.2, 2 - 1.2, 3 - 1.3, 4 - 1.2, 5 - 1.3

 

[jayceee]

Even if the ratings for Elementary remains low, I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being renewed for season 4 for syndication purposes. (ie. To reach the magic number of 88-100 episodes).

Earlier this year, Elementary already got its off-network syndication deal.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/elementarys-syndication-sale-nets-cbs-676893


Though if it continues getting low ratings, most likely it will be dumped into the Sunday or Friday evening time slot.

 

[jayceee]

In terms of what CBS will cancel by the end of this season, it's hard to say at this point.

At the present time, there's several shows hovering around in the 1.6-1.7 demo ratings range:

- Stalker
- Madam Secretary
- Person of Interest
- NCIS Los Angeles

and some long term shows hovering in the 1.3 demo rating range:

- CSI
- Hawaii Five-0
- Blue Bloods
- The Good Wife


With the exception of the freshman shows, I wouldn't be surprised if the final renew/cancel decisions are based on costs (especially for non-CBS owned shows) and how much syndication revenue is coming in to CBS.

 

[the G-man]

[*]NBC Cancels Bad Judge

I watched the pilot. It was pretty dopey. The only thing that made me think it might get better/be worth watching is that Kate Walsh is always appealing.

It'd be nice to see her get a show that's worthy of her (and, no, I didn't consider the Grey's spinoff worthy).

 

[jayceee]

In terms of recent precedents at CBS, one could examine some of last year's canceled freshman shows, such as Intelligence and Hostages.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostages_%28TV_series%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_(U.S._TV_series)

Both shows were bumping around in the 1.1-1.2 demo ratings range towards the end of their runs.

I don't know what CBS will do this time around, if shows like Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods, CSI, etc ... continue to sink down to ratings of 1.1 (or lower).

 

[FPAlpha]

Bummer. I like A to Z; well, I like Andrew and Zelda. The best friends are bearable. Almost everyone else - *shudder*

Yup, pretty much it (and i adore Cristin Miliotti since i saw her on HIMYM, only saving grace of the final season of that show).

Bad for Milioti but then her name is out there now and she's likeable so i'm sure it won' tbe long before she has another gig (which i'll be sure to check out ).

 

[bigdaddy]

The Good Wife is safe simply because it's the only show that gets acclaim on CBS. Blue Bloods is safe because it's a Friday show.

 

[Guy Gardener]

The Good Wife should be safe because it's fantastic.

 

[Sto-Vo-Kory]

The Good Wife should be safe because it's fantastic.

Well said, sir, I couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[bigdaddy]

The Good Wife should be safe because it's fantastic.

So that's why 2.5 Men is still on the air.

 

[Jax]

Another thing I suspect which may work against POI, is that CBS does not own it. It is owned by Warner.

However "Person of Interest" continues, it might require Warner to bend over backwards to keep it on the air, if the ratings aren't doing as well.

If memory serves Warner were behind Fringe right? alongside "Bad Robot" and WB did bend over quite a bit to secure season 4 and 5 of Fringe. I would hope they would be willing to do the same in some sort of a 5th season order as POI not getting a proper finish would be GUTTING! to say the least