How is it harder when the natural hazards of Earth are both far better known and considerably less lethal?
Its harder in terms of predicability and planned avoidance.
Sunrise and sunset are predictable. Rain storms--and weather patterns of all type--are predictable even in modern times. UNLIKE space hazards, there's no particular need to avoid them if you're building something robust enough that none of those things will hurt it.
Yes O’Neill Colonies have to be built but there are a number of possible boot strapping precursors to even fairly modest such colonies. But yes they are expensive however when you consider the increased wealth available in space (energy and materials) combined with automation etc, they would no longer look so "excessive".
That wealth has to be acquired first before it can be spent. This is why O'Neill cylinders are not a "bootstrapping" proposition, they're a metropolitan development for a population that has already been living in space, has been THRIVING in space, and now want to pay themselves a dividend from their hard work.
Your worker in Chicago/coal mine in Canada analogy doesn’t take the differences in scale of space environments
Oh, but it DOES. The coal mine in Canada could be fifty to a hundred kilometers from Chicago. In astronomical distances, that's the distance an O'Neill cylinder might be placed from an asteroid its population was in the process of mining. OTOH, the distance between an O'Neill Cylinder and the moon's surface is going to be farther still, and even less accessible without vehicular transportation.
In either case, the point is they are BEYOND WALKING DISTANCE.
I may not have thought excessively about the amount of biomass to be put into an O'Neill colony in order to develop a viable ecology but quite a few people have, and I should think most of the actual bulk will probably come from "moon waste"
That, again, is not a viable option until SEVERAL generations of colonists have already been living on the moon.
Right, but that's where [then moon] the first colony would actually develop. Since that's the first and only place where anyone actually NEEDS to be, …
Actually I should think the goal would be to only need a handful of people on the moon to sort our problems. Bulldozers would be driven from space and again most things would be automated where possible. The moon is just a source of materials.
Colonies are always setup as close as possible to a viable source of materials. Not to export them, but to EXPLOIT them. The colony is going to need a cheap source of building materials, fuel, and especially water. Since the only place it can get them is on the moon or a near Earth asteroid, then the colony will be setup in a location conveniently close to these things.
On the flip side: the first colonial mission that attempts to mine the moon STRICTLY through teleoperated robots is going to be the first colonial mission that discovers their entire mining operation being taken over by the people who had the balls to go there in person. A territorial claim is a lot easier to stake when you're physically standing on the territory you're declaring.
Exactly. The work [building solar power satellites for a start] is being done in space, perhaps in small "construction shacks" for a start, later in O’Neil colonies as production (and revenue) takes off, not on a planet or moon.
Except the satelites are sitll being BUILT on the moon and only ASSEMBLED in orbit. There's no advantage to setting up a second industrial site when the first will, by that point, already be inhabitted and established and the only extra infrastructure you have to setup is getting a ship in orbit to help mate the completed modules together.
I'm basically saying an O'Neil cylinder isn't going to be a colony of Earthlings. It's going to be a colony of Lunarians.
I think I have covered why we send the ores to space and you can’t "just as easily process them on the moon and then ship the finished products directly to Earth"
I must have missed that post, because as far as I can tell you've suggested no compelling reason why construction ON THE MOON is in any way infeasible. It is
potentially more expensive than building in orbit, but that potential depends entirely on the marginal costs incurred from setting up that orbital infrastructure in the first place.
The initial and continuing products are SPSs remember?
In Gerald O'Niell's very specific scenario, yes. The problem is, not everyone is going to go to the moon for that specific reason. The much bigger problem is building solar power satellites doesn't
require the colonization of the moon in the first place.
To turn their "base" into a third class O’Neill colony while spending almost as much time and energy doing so perhaps?
And yet they could build a comfortable habitat on or beneath the moon's surface in one tenth the time and for one tenth the energy, AND use those resources for themselves without the expense of importing them from the moon.
I hardly think a fictitious work (DS9) written by people who themselves are not open to the idea of space colonies constitutes evidence in favour of your viewpoint.
Heppenheimer and O'Neill's works are ALSO fictitious. But unlike DS9, they didn't bother to explore the implications of human nature, human conflict, or most importantly human discord.
Because humanity's colonization of space is EXTREMELY unlikely to be the work of a unified global entity with the best interests of mankind at heart, and it has to be considered that not all of the colonies will be established at the same time for the same reason by the same people. If that first colony is O'Neill's orbital society mining the moon by teleoperated robots, they will probably find themselves in a very bad position when the third, fifth, and eleventh colonies decide to walk over to their mining centers, reprogram the robots and keep all those resources for themselves. In the BEST case scenario, the orbitals are screwed over and wind up sending complaints to their sponsor country who them lodges a few impotent complaints. Worst case scenario, this results in a war, which would be VERY bad for the orbitals on account of the fact that space stations, unlike moons, are very fragile things.
The "blow up" O’Neill colony is probably not that expensive and from there the fit out might be similar to a moon base cost-wise.
Not if you want to produce full gravity, it aint. A structure that size with full radiation shielding and habitation would be immense, difficult to build, and harder to maintain.
A lunar settlement of similar size could be established by digging underground and lining the cavern with lunar cement, OR, it could be established in one of the sub-surface lava tubes in the lowlands (some of which are estimated as being several miles long and hundreds of meters in diameter). The ONLY disadvantage of such a settlement is the low gravity. But that's only a disadvantage for a population that has any intention of returning to Earth. Not because prolonged low gravity can make that trip impossible (it would take a couple of years for that to happen) but because the CHILDREN of those colonists would be adapted to lunar gravity and would never be able to visit Earth.
But that's a self-correcting problem. Colonies with low population growth tend to be unviable.
Whatever size colonies are built in space will be justified by the economic requirements at the time. After a while, processing materials, building SPSs and other products would easily justify a town of at least 10,000 people after a few years
Only of the solar power satellites produce an equivalent amount of wealth for the community. In this case, the satellites are beaming power to Earth, and the space colonies do not even INDIRECTLY reap the benefits of their construction. They simply get paid to do a job and then they spend that money on survival; economically, it might as well be a lunar Toyota factory.
SPS construction isn't going to be a major part of the colonial economy UNLESS they build a few of them for themselves. Otherwise, the major industries for the colonies will be agriculture, spaceship construction, habitat construction, material commodities--particularly aluminum and iron, which can be used for rocket fuel--and the collection of lunar water, which is going to be extremely valuable for all of the above. A somewhat larger portion of the colonists' energies are going to be expended in the collection and cultivation of resources for their OWN use than will be on resources for EARTH'S use; water in particular is a latchkey industry for agriculture and for rocket fuel, for example, and the control of water resources WOULD become a source of wealth, since water is something very much in demand in the space colonies.
Ultimately, even your O'Neil colony would come to depend in the water extraction facilities on the moon, unless it wants to pay the much higher price to import water from Earth. Even in the heyday of solar power satellites, though, the O'Neil colonists would not be able to profit directly from the extraction of natural resources, only by acting as a middleman between the lunar workers and Earth consumers. When you once again introduce competition and conflict to this situation, the orbitals situation is precious at best: almost everything they need to survive is on the moon, and the only means they have of obtaining it is cash flow from Earth.
Yes, the hydro-electric dam analogy isn’t bad is it, since the point of ultimately building O’Neill colonies is to supply power to at least hundreds of millions of people on Earth.
You do realize the Hoover Dam was built to serve the needs of the southwest United States, right? Not, say, Spain or the British Empire? It wasn't built by the Dutch East India company either.
The Hoover Dam was built by the people who arrived in north America as colonists; it was built for their own use, using their own money. And that's what I meant earlier when I said that an O'Neill cylinder, if it were to be built at all, would be built by the colonists from their own wealth in accordance with their own priorities. That kind of construction requires a present and active civilization already in place to finance and drive the construction effort; it isn't the kind of thing you would "bootstrap" just because your workers don't want to live in reduced gravity.
I’m sure you recall the large catchers used to collect the payloads?
I do. I also recall the relative velocity was something like a "mere hundred meters per second." I think that like space elevators and launch loops, it's a concept with a lot of fundamental problems that most people--Heppenheimer included--ignore on the assumption that someone, somewhere, will figure out how to solve later.
I'm sure the rockets would be reused but its still an unnecessary expense especially given the undesirability of moon manufacture in the first place.
What exactly IS the undesirability of moon manufacture?
Oh I see. So phasers use nine volt batteries?
Or the 23rd century equivalent. That is, a portable power cell that can fit into a pocket but is also cheap enough that civilians are able to obtain one.
You will forgive me for not accepting you view that O’Neill and others were just trying to "WILL a space industry into existence"
HE wasn't trying to, he was basically saying that SOMEONE ELSE would. It's not really his fault, because there's a whole school of thought among the NASA/Spaceflight community that still thinks this way. Lately they have come into very bitter conflict with the NewSpace faction, for whom the "bootstrap" approach doesn't involve waiting around for someone to invent a new pair of high tech boots.
I also feel your view of automation in space is "a little" pessimistic particularly when remote control assistance is taken into account and the methods available for asteroid mining may to be more amenable to automation it seems to me, although I admit to being no expert.
It's not that my view is pessimistic. It's that the proponents of teleoperated mining are extremely
optimistic. Robotic capability isn't going to eliminate the need to build large settlements. It will merely empower the settlers so that the same number of people can do ten times as much work. Which would be a huge thing in and of itself, UNTIL you consider that everything in space is ten times as expensive as it is on Earth, that the cost of shipping payloads to the moon is hundreds of times greater than the cost of shipping payloads across the Atlantic, and the needs of a space colony--lunar surface or otherwise--are far more severe than those of a terrestrial settlement that can at least rough it on local resources if their supplies run out.
Not THAT much easier, and certainly not enough to justify the increased risk to the workers.
If ships were build in enclosed space docks, there would be no such risk. The people who write these films seem to havea limited view of how to use space.
No, just a limited view of how to use their own props.
You're thinking of TUC, I believe. Lots of drop-door things dividing corridors, especially during Chang's torpedo attack.
Didn’t doors close when Kahn first decoyed the Enterprise and attached at close range?
Just the one door that dropped in the engine room, although there was that set of double doors in the engine room that we also saw in TMP.
But the whole "airtight compartment" thing really shows up in TUC. Once on Enterprise when they find Burke and Samuel lying dead in the corridor, and again when the Excelsior gets hit by a torpedo and two crewmen are seen running down a hallway as the compartment decompresses behind them.