Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The poor economy might also drive more folks out to the theaters for (relatively) cheap entertainment.

 

[WarMaster1701]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

All the X-men films open high, but they legs of those films are usually horrible.

ST should do anywhere from 150-300 million

 

[Flake]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I don't know what it will make, sometimes I think it will do well, sometimes I think that regardless of how good it is its still Star Trek and they will give it a miss BUT maybe the word of mouth and advertising will make people watch it regardless of what it is, so because I'm not certain I will say:

$150-240 Domestic
$150-200 Overseas

So between $300 and $440 worldwide.

Best I can do ATM!

Ok, here is my final prediction

$52 Million O/W - $165 total - North America
$200 Million - Overseas

$365 Million total Worldwide, perhaps enough to permit a sequel.

 

[Jax]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable".

Are you being serious that statement is wrong on so many levels

 

[npsf3000]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I cant wait until the numbers are tallied :P

Seriously though the pessimism around here is high...

"Let me guess, the odds are against us, and the situation is grim"

 

[Data Holmes]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I cant wait until the numbers are tallied :P

Seriously though the pessimism around here is high...

"Let me guess, the odds are against us, and the situation is grim"

"Spock would say I'm and irrational, illogical human being... Sounds like fun!"

 

[cooleddie74]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I don't call $215 million domestic pessimistic. Just realistic.

 

[MNM]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Basically, Paramount has killed ST by giving this thing what fans have wanted for years - a massive budget. There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable". This film WILL have to do close to TDK figures for THAT to happen.

So none of the big budget of the last few years (like Transformars, Iron-Man, etc.) were profitable?

He's counting on the Trek stigma to keep "regular" people away.

Well it will. It has done for most of Trek's history and will do again with the new movie.

 

[DaveyNY]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I think everybody is forgetting one major factor...

This is PARAMOUNTS/CBS's...​

CASH COW...​

[Paramount's cash cow is hotlinked?]
Not Anymore...

No matter what this movie makes overall (and I'm gussesin' it's gonna make a mint),​

Eventually...,​

TPTB...,​

[Shatner] WILL..., MAKE..., ANOTHER ONE !! [/Shatner]​

It's just the Nature Of The Beast...​

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I don't call $215 million domestic pessimistic. Just realistic.

I'm afraid I'd call it optimistic...

 

[npsf3000]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

This is a honest question...

Why is there so much concern over opening weekend and domestic gross?

If it makes money it makes money?

 

[Stardate]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

My 2 cent. $222 million in the US AND $199 million overseas. So worldwide gross is $421 million. Watch this post.

 

[Cheebo]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I don't call $215 million domestic pessimistic. Just realistic.

I'm afraid I'd call it optimistic...

Same here. I was looking at what other big budget summer blockbusters tend to do when they get about 50 million opening weekends (which is what Trek is tracking to do).

It usually is around 130 million. Which is a good deal under the budget. I really hope it does more than 50 million opening weekend....

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I don't call $215 million domestic pessimistic. Just realistic.

I'm afraid I'd call it optimistic...

Same here. I was looking at what other big budget summer blockbusters tend to do when they get about 50 million opening weekends (which is what Trek is tracking to do).

It usually is around 130 million. Which is a good deal under the budget. I really hope it does more than 50 million opening weekend....

Listen, if they blundered that badly with Fast and Furious...

 

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

This is a honest question...

Why is there so much concern over opening weekend and domestic gross?

If it makes money it makes money?

Opening weekend is used as a predictor of domestic gross. Studios take a formula and apply it to the opening weekend to estimate how much they will take in in total here in the US.

Domestic gross is likewise a predictor of overseas gross (again, a formula is used). It is very rare for a film to do better internationally than it does domestically.

The studio has a target number for total box office they want to green-light another film. The generally accepted minimum is 2x production budget, but I'm hearing 3x more and more often.

 

[superdeluxe]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

55-70 million opening weekend. Good WOM and advertising/marketing tie ins will drive it to between 160-215million domestic. I feel trek will have some really nice legs.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

This is a honest question...

Why is there so much concern over opening weekend and domestic gross?

If it makes money it makes money?

In the current movie marketplace it's a very rare "blockbuster" that has legs for more than a few weeks. In order to make any significant money in first run a movie gnerally has to do a great deal of business in the first week or so.

One wonders if adding Thursday shows to the schedule might not be a Paramount response to some of this tracking data - although I haven't been able to find much info on Marketcast's track record. They seem to do a lot of random polling; NRG seems to be better known.

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Why not open the movie at "regular hours" like happens with many a blockbuster? (on Thursday that is)

 

[RAMA]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

This is a honest question...

Why is there so much concern over opening weekend and domestic gross?

If it makes money it makes money?

In the current movie marketplace it's a very rare "blockbuster" that has legs for more than a few weeks. In order to make any significant money in first run a movie gnerally has to do a great deal of business in the first week or so.

One wonders if adding Thursday shows to the schedule might not be a Paramount response to some of this tracking data - although I haven't been able to find much info on Marketcast's track record. They seem to do a lot of random polling; NRG seems to be better known.

One of the tacking sites posted on another thread came up with figures almost exactly to my prediction: $50 million opening, $150 million USA.

http://adage.com/madisonandvine/article?article_id=136024

If I come theclosest will I win a TREKBBS award?

RAMA

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

This is a honest question...

Why is there so much concern over opening weekend and domestic gross?

If it makes money it makes money?

In the current movie marketplace it's a very rare "blockbuster" that has legs for more than a few weeks. In order to make any significant money in first run a movie gnerally has to do a great deal of business in the first week or so.

One wonders if adding Thursday shows to the schedule might not be a Paramount response to some of this tracking data - although I haven't been able to find much info on Marketcast's track record. They seem to do a lot of random polling; NRG seems to be better known.

One of the tacking sites posted on another thread came up with figures almost exactly to my prediction: $50 million opening, $150 million USA.

http://adage.com/madisonandvine/article?article_id=136024

If I come theclosest will I win a TREKBBS award?

RAMA

Yes. The Enterprise on a stick. Impaled.