Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[Admiral Bear]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

To all those people predicting some sort of huge rest of the world gross, it's a matter of fact that the last decent Trek film, Star Trek: First Contact only made 37% of it's worldwide gross outside of America.

Insurrection made the same percentage of total gross outside of the US, while Nemesis took 35% and Generations 36%.

Uh...this would probably explain the fact that Paramount's foreign marketing approach to this is nothing like that of any of the previous Trek movies, huh?

I'm afraid I'll have to see evidence of your complete track record for successfully predicting movie box office before I can take any of this seriously.

My optimistic predictions for Trek Xl's box office takings were based on the above figures for the last 5 Trek films, figures which are historically and factually correct.

 

[Augustus]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

To all those people predicting some sort of huge rest of the world gross, it's a matter of fact that the last decent Trek film, Star Trek: First Contact only made 37% of it's worldwide gross outside of America.

Insurrection made the same percentage of total gross outside of the US, while Nemesis took 35% and Generations 36%.

Uh...this would probably explain the fact that Paramount's foreign marketing approach to this is nothing like that of any of the previous Trek movies, huh?

I'm afraid I'll have to see evidence of your complete track record for successfully predicting movie box office before I can take any of this seriously.

My optimistic predictions for Trek Xl's box office takings were based on the above figures for the last 5 Trek films, figures which are historically and factually correct.

Yes and I think they would be much more applicable if we were about to see another TNG movie or a DS9 movie or some such thing.

But we aren't. The big difference here is that 90 plus % of people didn't care to go see a Trek movie before. Now the buzz is up, early reviews are in, ads all over the place, I think we all know people that are excited to see it. This is different and I don't think previous trek box office numbers apply.

Who knows how it will turn out. But for my own, when I saw Nemesis, I saw it with my 2 brothers, also fans. In May when I see this movie, I am going with my brothers and about half a dozen non fan friends...

 

[cooleddie74]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Prolly Brittney numbers.

What's a Brittney number ?

How many kids with mullets a pop singer can crank out with the help of a guy in a wifebeater?

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Yes and I think they would be much more applicable if we were about to see another TNG movie or a DS9 movie or some such thing.

But we aren't.

Absolutely Right(TM).

 

[donners22]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I think it will do better than other Trek films, but still won't be the blockbuster some are expecting. $US170-200 million worldwide.

 

[Anthony]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The general public wants to enjoy a heroic sci-fi action flick

Unless it's Star Wars, when have the general public as a whole ever wanted to watch a sci-fi space movie?

Not Star Trek. And not this one either. Trek is a rare entity in that you either get it--or you don't. Most people don't. That's why it's always had limited appeal to the general public.

This one might fare slightly better, but don't expect BO numbers in the realm typically inhabited by films like SW or Iron Man.

This movie will not knock off Wolverine at the Box Office, not unless it's a really bad film, which I doubt.

Opening Weekend: 65-75 million. Total Domestic Gross: 165-180 million.

 

[npsf3000]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I think you guys have to realise this is a big budget film - it is not a ramped up tv show for a specific audiance.

Have a look at the movies a mentioned earlier (will smith 'i am legend' and hancock with 600m apiece).

Have a look at superman returns 400m, and X-Men: The Last Stand 460m.


Dont look at outdated numbers of a dead series, have a look a the 'reboot' numbers.

 

[cooleddie74]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

$215 million seems a good call for this one. TREK just doesn't have the pull to get SPIDER-MAN or SHREK numbers in most markets with the way its been saturated in the culture for most of the past 40 years and its dorky/nerdy reputation. But this will make more than any TREK film to date both domestically and internationally.

 

[Lumen]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

This movie will not knock off Wolverine at the Box Office, not unless it's a really bad film, which I doubt.

Opening Weekend: 65-75 million. Total Domestic Gross: 165-180 million.

Wolverine won't beat $65-75 million in its second weekend. If Star Trek opens big enough to meet expectations ($50+ million) it should beat Wolverine's second weekend, which I expect to be less than $40 million.

 

[WarMaster1701]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Wolverine will make $40 million or less in its second weekend

 

[Therin of Andor]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

There have only been THREE merchandising powerhouses: Star Wars, Transformers, and GI Joe (modern). The last two were DESIGNED to be "toy sales oriented".

The other one worth mentioning is 1989's "Batman". That movie introduced the concept of Warner Bros selling the rights to little companies to on-sell the rights to chains wanting to sell the official merchandise. That way, Warners got paid even if the chain stores failed to sell any of what they'd bought (and a great many Batman logo items, such as licensed bow ties, cummerbunds and nightshirts, ended up at deep discount not long after Batmania died down), but the movie had essentially paid for itself before it was even released.

Most chains were more savvy by the time "Batman Returns" came around.

 

[Anthony]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I think you guys have to realise this is a big budget film - it is not a ramped up tv show for a specific audiance.

Have a look at the movies a mentioned earlier (will smith 'i am legend' and hancock with 600m apiece).

Have a look at superman returns 400m, and X-Men: The Last Stand 460m.


Dont look at outdated numbers of a dead series, have a look a the 'reboot' numbers.

I've been Trekking since 1966. I know a little bit about it, you might say. That aside, remake, reboot, reimagining, general audiences aren't going to touch it. in numbers anywhere near those detailed in your post. No way; not even in worldwide grosses either.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

TREK just doesn't have the pull to get SPIDER-MAN or SHREK numbers in most markets with the way its been saturated in the culture for most of the past 40 years and its dorky/nerdy reputation.

"Spider-Man" celebrates the dork, in Peter Parker. In the circles I mix with, "Star Wars" is considered to be just as dorky/nerdy as "Star Trek", except first-run ST hasn't been as accessible to kids since TNG.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

That aside, remake, reboot, reimagining, general audiences aren't going to touch it. in numbers anywhere near those detailed in your post. No way; not even in worldwide grosses either.

I dunno. The Sydney premiere had 1600 people (celebs, advertising people, media invitees, pro reviewers), of which only 200 or so were fans who'd bought their tickets online for $100 each.

The film got a standing ovation, and not just from the 200 scattered fans.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I've been Trekking since 1966.

Which really doesn't have anything to do with the prospects for this movie. The performance of similar big-budget summer action movies are more relevant.

 

[Lumen]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

While true, a $400+ million worldwide cume is still a longshot (which I think was his point).

But anyway, expectations for this film are steadily trending upwards; when serious analysts first started taking their guesses a couple weeks, we were on the low side of $55 million and below $150 domestic cume on average; now we're edging past $60 million for an opening weekend, and pushing $150 cume. I'm thinking that $65 million will be at least the median prediction by the time May 7 rolls around, depending on how much Wolverine underperforms. It'll need Batman Begins-legs to get to $200 million cume, still.

 

[Starbreaker]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Paul Blart numbers, probably.

Considering those are good numbers, it's a sad world we live in.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

My point (and the ONLY one I'm trying to make with this) is that AT THIS POINT, the film (just like Serenity)has only been shown before "friendly" audiences. Of course it was going to be enthusiastically recieved.

In Sydney only about 200 seats were the fans who bought $100 tickets online. The rest were TV celebs, pro reviewers, media liaisons, designated "taste makers" from all walks of A-list and B-list life. Not "general public", but certainly not guaranteed fans of a 40+ year old franchise.

1600 people; standing ovation.

 

[Stegoman05]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Im going to guess for opening weekend around $65-75million and for domestic gross around $175 hopefully. WW maybe $300million. From all of the positive reviews and wom and hearing some non fans getting excited is a good sign. Thats a decent BO start for star trek. I see the sequel being a bigger hit. We will see in May.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Telling a bunch of hard-core Trekkies that they're not going to get to see TWOK - which they waited in line for - but are going to see the movie that they've been tearing their hair out on the Internet over for years now instead is not "showing it to a friendly audience." It's taking a huge risk that the first uncontrolled public comments about the film will be from a bunch of very demanding, nitpicking and frequently loudly critical viewers who may give the film mixed or possibly bad reviews.

You have to be pretty sure of just how good your movie is to risk that.