Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[Vektor]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I think we'll be able to make more accurate predictions when the official reviews start coming out next week. If it gets lots more of the glowing--sometimes gushing--evaluations it has gotten so far, I think it will beat the tracking number of $50 million, possibly by quite a bit. I think the Trek stigma will probably hold it back from a truly spectacular opening weekend, but if it is as much fun and as big of a thrill ride as many have said, it could get a lot of repeat business and WOM could bring in a lot of people who hadn't originally planned to see it.

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about it and I'm getting a good vibe about the level of interest from fans and non-fans alike. I'll throw my hat in and predict a $80 million opening weekend, but I think it will sustain itself well through at least the second weekend. Total domestic and overseas take: Around $375 million, more than enough to greenlight a sequel.

Then again, if the official reviews take a more negative turn, all bets are off.

 

[shapeshifter]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I just checked Fandango and found 3 theaters near me have added 2 Thursday evening screenings @ 7 and 10 pm.

Oh happy day!

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Just bought my tickets for May 7th at 7:00 PM.

 

[WarMaster1701]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I like how the tracking is $50 opening $150 total. This is good news. Trek could easily go over those numbers

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

When studio executives start handicapping this thing for the trade press in a week or so we'll get an idea of what they really believe - they always go low - "we'll be really happy with a ___ million dollar opening" generally means they expect to do significantly more.

 

[USSPhilippi]

BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=11526&cmin=10&columnpage=2

Some snippets:

Jerry Simpson: Star Trek is going to be the biggest of the Franchise, and still a disappointment.

....

Joel Corcoran: This is a very, very tough call to make. It's been six-and-a-half years since the last Star Trek film (Nemesis) was released, so fanboys like me are aching for a new fix. Every Trek fan I know - including my own mother - is planning to see the movie, though not necessarily opening weekend. ....there's every indication that it will be a good "Star Trek movie" with enough extended appeal into regular viewing audiences to have a solid opening, good legs, and a domestic gross of slightly over $200 million. And there's a small, outside chance that it will be a great movie on its own.

....

Tim Briody: Quantum of Solace did a reboot of sorts and that caused the biggest opening in the history of the James Bond franchise. Star Trek is about to do the same. The biggest opening weekend belongs to First Contact at $30.7 million. The highest grossing entry is Star Trek IV at $109 million (figures not adjusted for inflation). The reboot is going to blow both of those numbers completely out of the water.

Hit the link above for more.

 

[SalvorHardin]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

not another box office thread

 

[LutherSloan]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

That article mistakes Quantum of Solace for Casino Royale...

 

[USSPhilippi]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

That article mistakes Quantum of Solace for Casino Royale...

Yeah, I noticed that.

 

[cooleddie74]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I don't call $215 million domestic pessimistic. Just realistic.

I'm afraid I'd call it optimistic...

Oh, it'll make at least as much as T2 did in 1991. Even considering the increase in ticket costs in the past eighteen years. But beyond that I don't see it. Not in 2009 America and after years of Trekhaustion.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

I'm sorry, my favorite part was:

The question becomes whether Insurrection and the failed Enterprise television show have left a lingering bad taste in the mouths of would-be Trekkies (if you even think about saying "we prefer Trekkers", go shove a comm badge where the sun don't shine).

 

[shapeshifter]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

not another box office thread

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

I like a site that archives its predictions so that the visitor can gauge their track record. Boxofficeprophets is respectable but tends to be conservative - they called "Iron Man's" opening at 88 million, "Fast And Furious III" at only 41.4 million and "Monsters Vs. Aliens" at 48.6 million.

 

[Eddie Roth]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

I'm sorry, my favorite part was:

The question becomes whether Insurrection and the failed Enterprise television show have left a lingering bad taste in the mouths of would-be Trekkies (if you even think about saying "we prefer Trekkers", go shove a comm badge where the sun don't shine).

Of course, as so often, they don't seem to get their research right: They mean Nemesis, yet talk about Insurrection all the time. But they're not the only ones. Just these last few says I read several German articles that talked about the new villain Nemo, or Chechov and everybody seems to think the movie's tagline is its subtitle. Nearly all German news reports today are about "Die Zukunft hat begonnen"..... Sigh....

 

[Ryan Thomas Riddle]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

That article mistakes Quantum of Solace for Casino Royale...

Well, QoS could be considered a reboot in its own right since it took everything that was good about Casino and tossed it out the Aston Martian window, imao.

 

[DeafPoet]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

The last guy's childhood was clearly raped by Trek. An interesting reversal.

I think most of them are pretty realistic about Trek but they're out of their fucking minds on Wolverine. $80 Million? No way.

So the whole thing needs a pretty big grain of salt.

 

[Michael Chris]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

why no way?

 

[DeafPoet]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

why no way?

It looks shitty, for one. And by all reports from the leak, it is shitty. I haven't watched it yet though since I want to give it a fair shake on the finished product. Won't be in the theatres though.

EDIT: Completely OT, what did Ryan Reynolds do to piss off God? I mean on one hand he's fucking Scarlett Johanson but on the other, the motherfucker keeps starring in crappy movies when he's clearly more talented than that.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

why no way?

It looks shitty, for one. And by all reports from the leak, it is shitty. I haven't watched it yet though since I want to give it a fair shake on the finished product. Won't be in the theatres though.

Well, Marketcast supposedly has it opening at 100 million - so again, the Boxofficeprophets prediction is more conservative.

And BTW - who are these guys in their day jobs? They reviewers or they work in the industry or are they investment people or fans?

 

[DeafPoet]

Re: BoxOfficeProphets.com discusses Star Trek

Well, Marketcast supposedly has it opening at 100 million - so again, the Boxofficeprophets prediction is more conservative.

Which is a good way to roll generally when your stock-and-trade is a complete crap-shoot.

Also, I was wondering who the fuck these guys are as I was reading it too. Is "Box-Office Speculator" an actual job now?