Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[darkwing_duck1]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I've been Trekking since 1966.

Which really doesn't have anything to do with the prospects for this movie. The performance of similar big-budget summer action movies are more relevant.

And once again Dennis, you're trying to have it both ways: the franchise MUST be rebooted because it has too much of a "dork factor" attatched BUT that dork factor WON'T hurt the reboot because it's "big budget summer action"...

 

[goran'agar]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Haha this thread is amusing.....most people's predictions on this board are 100-200mill domestic, and even then that figure is considered too optimistic by others....If thats the case (movie budget 150mill +) then there will be no further trek movie or tv series in our life time...say for about another 80yrs

You see, when uve been entrenched in the berman-braga crapaniser for years, u get used to mediocrity, that mediocrity becomes a part of u, and u apply that mediocrity as a barometer for success and comparison. Anything better than mediocre is considered by some as heresy --"thats not star trek....it doesnt suck!!!" "JJ I hate uuuu!!" "uve destroyed my Insurrection-Enterprise dreammmss"

Treks competition -
Wolverine -- has been franchise.....the claws get tiresome after a while and most people have seen enuf after a decade of xmen....big opening weekend but it'll fade afterwards

Terminator salvation........1st up it needed a script doctor (Nolan's bro) to rewrite the script coz Bale refused to sign with McG's script being tosh. 2nd, screening audiences hated the "Twist" ending, which required reshoots and what not else to "fix" it
The trailer looks absolutely ordinary...Terminator films are supposed to be iconic and capture the imagination, this one doesnt
Finally McG being director is enuf for this film to suck.....it made James Cameron puuke
Expect a massive opening weekend only for it crash like hell after the bad word of mouth.....annnd also...dont forget, the last Terminator film made 44mill in its opening weekend and limped to 150mill gross domestic (50mill short of its budget of 200mill)

Dark Knight got 150mill in its opening weekend - no way can trek match that
Iron Man got 102 mill in its opening weekend - I dont think trek can match that even
Transformers got 70mill in its opening weekend - Trek will match that and possibly even exceed it, but the most interesting thing is that despite Harry Potter opening the next weekend and displacing it by getting 90mill, Transformers powered on...and on..all the way to 319 million, which even Iron Man couldnt reach (318mill) despite opening on more screens and having a much bigger boxoffice opening weekend..
Why? Coz it had a very good word of mouth after it opened.....people started talking about it and mainstream people who previously laughed off the film and concept as a realm for geeks went and watched it....even though true Transformers fans were disappointed with it, they too went in droves to watch it, and hence...."fan boys" getting pissed off amounts to nothing at the box-office

Trek will follow the TF path with a solid opening weekend, and it will be the stayer at the boxoffice this summer due to the good word of mouth it will receive after its opening weekend. I would have been worried if Terminator salvation opened 1 week after Trek, but it is two weeks after, and two weeks at the box office gives enuf time for Trek to establish a solid base with word of mouth
My prediction : 300+ million gross domestic - thats double its budget of 150mill and enough for paramount to guarantee 2 further sequels. It needs at least 4000 screens on opening weekend to be showing it to reach these numbers.

But trek also has a certain factor this summer that TF didnt.....
This Trek is a film without the constraints of mediocrity and sterility that previous incarnations carried around as if it were its birthright (excluding the original series). The people who arent trekkies have recognised this fact...the word of mouth for this film is huge...and it is still virtually a month away...the mainstream media is heavily interested for once....so we'll see

One things for sure, a lot of people on this board, and outside, will be surprised come May 8.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Mediocrity in grammar and spelling is evidently more acceptable, but unfortunately is not legible.

 

[goran'agar]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Mediocrity in grammar and spelling is evidently more acceptable, but unfortunately is not legible.

Sorry if my slang such as "enuf", "dont" without an apostrophe,'Crapaniser", "uve" etc offended ure fanboy sensibilities, I didnt (ooopss I mean "didn't" in case u were wondering) realise that a Star Trek BBS was a forum for proper and pompous English decorum.

 

[goran'agar]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Mediocrity in grammar and spelling is evidently more acceptable, but unfortunately is not legible.

Sorry if my slang such as "enuf", "dont" without an apostrophe,'Crapaniser", "uve" etc offended ure fanboy sensibilities, I didnt (ooopss I mean "didn't" in case u were wondering) realise that a Star Trek BBS was a forum for proper and pompous English decorum.

Damn! I've done it again. I'll have another attempt.

I humbly apologise/apologize (depending on what side of the Atlantic you reside in) if I have caused umbrage at your delicate sensibilities through the usage of irreverent slang terminology such as "enuf", "dont", "Crapaniser", "uve" etc. I did not realise/realize that a Star Trek BBS was a forum for proper and pompous English decorum.

I hope that was more legible my dear "Fleet Admiral".

 

[chrisspringob]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Transformers got 70mill in its opening weekend - Trek will match that and possibly even exceed it, but the most interesting thing is that despite Harry Potter opening the next weekend and displacing it by getting 90mill, Transformers powered on...and on..all the way to 319 million, which even Iron Man couldnt reach (318mill) despite opening on more screens and having a much bigger boxoffice opening weekend..
Why? Coz it had a very good word of mouth after it opened.....people started talking about it and mainstream people who previously laughed off the film and concept as a realm for geeks went and watched it....even though true Transformers fans were disappointed with it, they too went in droves to watch it, and hence...."fan boys" getting pissed off amounts to nothing at the box-office

Trek will follow the TF path with a solid opening weekend, and it will be the stayer at the boxoffice this summer due to the good word of mouth it will receive after its opening weekend. I would have been worried if Terminator salvation opened 1 week after Trek, but it is two weeks after, and two weeks at the box office gives enuf time for Trek to establish a solid base with word of mouth
My prediction : 300+ million gross domestic - thats double its budget of 150mill and enough for paramount to guarantee 2 further sequels. It needs at least 4000 screens on opening weekend to be showing it to reach these numbers.

Transformers isn't remotely comparable though, because it was released on Tuesday of the week of July 4th, so its business in its opening week was way more spread out. Its "opening weekend" didn't start until its 4th day of release, by which time it had already made quite a bit of $. Star Trek, OTOH, is being released on a Friday.

The last time a movie that was released on a Friday had a sub-$90 million (let alone $70 million) opening weekend, and then went on to top $300 million domestic was Summer 2003, with the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie. And that one had a much smaller fraction of its potential audience eager to rush out and see it opening night.

So if Trek does end up with a $70 million opening weekend, then I really don't see $300 million total as being very likely, even if word of mouth is excellent. Other blockbuster movies have had excellent WOM too, and it typically doesn't lead to that kind of longevity at the box office, at least not these days.

 

[urbandk]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

enuff z'nuff.

 

[Flake]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The first Box Office tracking numbers for ST11 (opening weekend):

Note:
A pretty huge change for State of Play, but these numbers (except for Trek which hasn't shown up in other tracking yet) are much more in line with other services now though there isn't the big gulf between Obsessed and Soloist as far as awareness goes.

17 AGAIN: Low 20's
STATE OF PLAY: Mid Teens
CRANK 2: Low Teen Millions


Future:
WOLVERINE: High 80's
TREK: Mid 50's
OBSESSED: Mid 20's
GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST: Almost mid 20's
SOLOIST: High Single Digits

Don't ask me how this all works, because I don't know, but it is copy & pasted from a well known source. http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0412173231.notfabio

 

[npsf3000]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

meh, this is link i found is a good idea:

http://www.filife.com/stackers/how-much-will-the-new-star-trek-movie-the-future-begins-make-on-op/240

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The first Box Office tracking numbers for ST11 (opening weekend):

Note:
A pretty huge change for State of Play, but these numbers (except for Trek which hasn't shown up in other tracking yet) are much more in line with other services now though there isn't the big gulf between Obsessed and Soloist as far as awareness goes.

17 AGAIN: Low 20's
STATE OF PLAY: Mid Teens
CRANK 2: Low Teen Millions


Future:
WOLVERINE: High 80's
TREK: Mid 50's
OBSESSED: Mid 20's
GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST: Almost mid 20's
SOLOIST: High Single Digits

Don't ask me how this all works, because I don't know, but it is copy & pasted from a well known source. http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0412173231.notfabio

Wolverine, high 80's....

Dare I ask the track record of this site?

 

[Cheebo]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The first Box Office tracking numbers for ST11 (opening weekend):

Note:
A pretty huge change for State of Play, but these numbers (except for Trek which hasn't shown up in other tracking yet) are much more in line with other services now though there isn't the big gulf between Obsessed and Soloist as far as awareness goes.

17 AGAIN: Low 20's
STATE OF PLAY: Mid Teens
CRANK 2: Low Teen Millions


Future:
WOLVERINE: High 80's
TREK: Mid 50's
OBSESSED: Mid 20's
GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST: Almost mid 20's
SOLOIST: High Single Digits

Don't ask me how this all works, because I don't know, but it is copy & pasted from a well known source. http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0412173231.notfabio

Wolverine, high 80's....

Dare I ask the track record of this site?

Very reliable. That site is like the best of the best for tracking and that company the tracking number came from is one of the best there is. It is a solid tracker.

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The first Box Office tracking numbers for ST11 (opening weekend):

Don't ask me how this all works, because I don't know, but it is copy & pasted from a well known source. http://talk.hsx.com/films/post.htm?0412173231.notfabio

Wolverine, high 80's....

Dare I ask the track record of this site?

Very reliable. That site is like the best of the best for tracking and that company the tracking number came from is one of the best there is. It is a solid tracker.

Well, if you say it is reliable, then it must be so...

 

[Tulin]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

it will do TDK business

Sorry to say, I dont see it doing ''THAT'' well!

Yeah......on that........I kidna think he was joking.

This film will be VERY lucky to pass $200m, and I think I am being VERY generous there.

Basically, Paramount has killed ST by giving this thing what fans have wanted for years - a massive budget. There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable". This film WILL have to do close to TDK figures for THAT to happen.


And, we ALL know THAT aint gonna happen.

 

[Cheebo]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Wolverine, high 80's....

Dare I ask the track record of this site?

Very reliable. That site is like the best of the best for tracking and that company the tracking number came from is one of the best there is. It is a solid tracker.

Well, if you say it is reliable, then it must be so...

I love tracking the box office results, that site that guy linked to is indeed one of the best. I doubt you'd find anyone who finds this stuff interesting who'd at all call tracking from HSX not reliable. HSX is the best there is.

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Very reliable. That site is like the best of the best for tracking and that company the tracking number came from is one of the best there is. It is a solid tracker.

Well, if you say it is reliable, then it must be so...

I love tracking the box office results, that site that guy linked to is indeed one of the best. I doubt you'd find anyone who finds this stuff interesting who'd at all call tracking from HSX not reliable. HSX is the best there is.

Any link to past percentage success rates over the years?

 

[EyalM]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Basically, Paramount has killed ST by giving this thing what fans have wanted for years - a massive budget. There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable". This film WILL have to do close to TDK figures for THAT to happen.

So none of the big budget movies of the past few years (like Transformars, Iron-Man, etc.) were profitable?

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Basically, Paramount has killed ST by giving this thing what fans have wanted for years - a massive budget. There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable". This film WILL have to do close to TDK figures for THAT to happen.

So none of the big budget of the last few years (like Transformars, Iron-Man, etc.) were profitable?

He's counting on the Trek stigma to keep "regular" people away.

 

[Cheebo]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Well, if you say it is reliable, then it must be so...

I love tracking the box office results, that site that guy linked to is indeed one of the best. I doubt you'd find anyone who finds this stuff interesting who'd at all call tracking from HSX not reliable. HSX is the best there is.

Any link to past percentage success rates over the years?

No idea if any such thing exists, I just know HSX is considered as the gold standard to check out if you are interesting in finding tracking numbers for upcoming films.

it will do TDK business

Sorry to say, I dont see it doing ''THAT'' well!

Yeah......on that........I kidna think he was joking.

This film will be VERY lucky to pass $200m, and I think I am being VERY generous there.

Basically, Paramount has killed ST by giving this thing what fans have wanted for years - a massive budget. There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable". This film WILL have to do close to TDK figures for THAT to happen.


And, we ALL know THAT aint gonna happen.

Uhm...it has to do over 500 million to profit off of 150 million dollar budget? Plenty of films are made for 150 million and don't make TDK numbers but are hits. Spider-Man, Transformers..etc.

 

[Borgminister]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

No idea if any such thing exists, I just know HSX is considered as the gold standard to check out if you are interesting in finding tracking numbers for upcoming films.

Again, unless provided with actual evidence of their success rate, I'll take whatever predictions they make with a hefty grain of salt.

Because I'm not the one making the claim that they are the gold standard, the onus of proof is not on me.

So I remain healthily skeptical...

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Basically, Paramount has killed ST by giving this thing what fans have wanted for years - a massive budget. There is NO WAY this film can make back the 3 x to 3.5 x budget that is needed for a film to considered "profitable".

That's neither what's necessary nor what's expected. That "formula" has been popularly bandied about for three decades now, and doesn't reflect the reality of how these things are evaluated at all.

Bear in mind that "Batman Begins" cost about what this movie has, made 205 million dollars domestically and was considered a big success.

Paramount will greenlight a sequel if this thing gets close to two hundred million domestic, does well overseas and has good word-of-mouth. WOM is considered significant for assessing sequel box office prospects, for obvious reasons.

If foreign receipts fall well short of 100 million, that would be problematic - which is why the full-court press overseas right now, of course.

It's unlikely that it can do "Iron Man" business, but not completely implausible that it might approach that. Beyond a certain "floor" which I'd put at about 150 million domestic there's a lot more unknown than known here.

The studio has risked something by spending a lot of money here, no question - but that was one of two practical choices they had. The other would be bargain-basement, foreign-produced basic cable or direct-to-DVD stuff. The days in which a viable marketplace existed for underbudgeted theatrical Star Trek fare are long and forever gone.