I got to thinking about this today at work. We know that the Trek timeline as we know it will get altered, although to what degree remains to be seen. Based on what little we do know, it seems to me that the various events from TOS that were socio-political in nature may deviate from the point where Nero interfers, but what the events that have nothing to do with the Federation, its allies and enemies?
Three major events come to mind right off, that I think have a high likelihood of still occuring in this new timeline:
1. The Doomsday Machine still wanders into the Alpha Quadrant, crunching up and digesting planets as it goes.
2. VGER still returns to this neck of the galactic woods, looking for its creator.
3. The Whale-Probe still comes in search of why there are no longer any large, aquatic mammals on our world.
I'm sure there's probably other TOS events that are likely to still happen in much the same manner as they did in the original universe, but a vast number of key events might now never happen. For example, there's no guarentee that this new Enterprise will encounter the Botany Bay and unleash Khan and his people. That event alone not happening would have an impact on much later events, IMO.
Three major events come to mind right off, that I think have a high likelihood of still occuring in this new timeline:
1. The Doomsday Machine still wanders into the Alpha Quadrant, crunching up and digesting planets as it goes.
2. VGER still returns to this neck of the galactic woods, looking for its creator.
3. The Whale-Probe still comes in search of why there are no longer any large, aquatic mammals on our world.
I'm sure there's probably other TOS events that are likely to still happen in much the same manner as they did in the original universe, but a vast number of key events might now never happen. For example, there's no guarentee that this new Enterprise will encounter the Botany Bay and unleash Khan and his people. That event alone not happening would have an impact on much later events, IMO.