Re: First Clear Picture of the Narada *Warning: Spoilers*
Paramount was willing to risk a lot of money on this movie just because a big-name producer was willing to do it. If this movie flops, the chance of another Trek movie getting the go ahead in the next ten years drops dramatically. That sounds like it harms the franchise. If any producers have gone to Paramount with an interest in making a new Trek series, a failed Trek XI will shut down any chance they have. That's harm to the franchise.
You're assuming a lot that, given the current landscape, is so hypothetical as to be meaningless.
"The
chance of another Trek movie..."
"
If any producers have gone to Paramount..." (this one presumes willing, even eager folk at Paramount who'd give any Trek TV pitch the time of day)
Look, the Franchise is dead right now in terms of TV and film production. You're right that Paramount was "willing to risk a lot of money" on this film because they were able to get people who they think will make a successful and profitable film.
If those people can't make Trek profitable for the studio, it's a
given that there won't be any more Trek production soon.
So, if this movie bombs "Star Trek" is exactly where it was before - dead in the water - and this movie becomes just the latest in a long trail of evidence that "Star Trek" is no longer worth investing money in for Paramount.
So no, this movie doesn't harm "Star Trek" no matter what - because no one was interested in making more "Star Trek" before (sorry, but the "Tiberius Chase" nonsense was just that - some producers who were on their way off the lot trying to interest the studio in something that no one at the studio was going to get interested in).
You can hypothesize all you want about how someone else might have created that perfect "Star Trek" movie that you both like and that makes the studio a pile of money, but it's just fantasizing.
Like Picard said to Data in "The Neutral Zone:" "They were already dead. What more could have happened to them?"
On TV and in the movies, "Star Trek" was dead before Abrams. If it's dead again afterward, no harm has been done. The risk here is a financial one, to Paramount and its partners, for possibly throwing good money after bad by trying to resurrect something that's passe. No risk to "Star Trek" at all.