...It is an odd choice for the episode to make so much of the change and to not make the decisive difference clear; it almost seems to be a disaster independent of Pike being the wrong man for the moment, which is the apparent theme they were trying to communicate.
I think if they were doing a time travel episode where Pike was supposed to fix the timeline to restore it to what it should be or even to "put right what once went wrong", then the specifics would be important. But the show as presented (especially given the almost offhand dialog about how in all alternative Pike-lives futures Spock still dies) is more about just that it does go wrong and learning how to live with that. The minutia don't matter as much as the character growth. And I also disagree that the message was Pike is the wrong man for the moment. That is one of several conclusions that you could derive from the events portrayed, but I don't think that was the actually message the writers were trying to send us.
Can't tell how serious you are about this and maybe you are just being reductive on purpose...but I disagree. This episode was to say "if Pike tries to change his fate, in this case, things go badly." It is not a detailed examination of comparative captain's abilities and it certainly isn't trying to paint the captain/lead of the show as bad.For all the flourish, the message of the season was "It's important to history that Pike be horribly injured because he is a bad captain, and Kirk is a way better one, and Pike would have totally messed up everything Kirk accomplished in TOS."
For me, I think they have done a good job addressing this rather awkward situation the DIS writers put them in. I think the butterfly effect/unanticipated consequences explanation is probably the best way to "solve" the problem. TNG ran into this very problem many times in time travel episodes where there was foreknowledge. They tended to solve it with someone, often Riker, saying "but how do we know changing course isn't what gets us into trouble in first place?" and Picard agreeing to stay the course. That was a lame, not remotely satisfying excuse. At least here in SNW, the butterfly effect/unanticipated consequences are a reasonable justification. But I could have done without them saying "in all possible alt futures Spock dies, and we need him" - that was a little unnecessary.I think you're being much too hard on the episode (and the series) overall... but yeah, I agree that the theme of this one was a hard pill to swallow.
Basically, the writers (different ones, to be fair) backed themselves into a corner by letting Pike glimpse his future (in DSC)... and now that he's the star of a full-fledged prequel series, they kinda have to deal with the implications of that while still, somehow, rationalizing having things turn out the same. It's awkward at best....
But that would have been a different episode entirely. Your episode, not the one they were actually trying to tell. They weren't trying to examine the different captaining approaches and doing a comparative analysis vs the circumstances (though that would be an interesting episode in itself). They were providing a dramatic portrayal of simply how attempting to change the future could, and would, go wrong despite Pike's (and Farragut-Kirk's) best efforts.The episode should’ve been a more intimate story, Kirk, Ortegas weird turn as Stiles and the Romulan Preator and fleet were really unnecessary. It should’ve been about Pike either running from or losing to the Bird of Prey and having to deal with the idea that he may not have been the right person for the job.
The episode was unnecessarily cluttered.
But the question of "should our heroes try to change/improve the future?" is an interesting question. In this case, regarding Pike and the cadets, the answer is said to be no. But, it that true in all cases? Is there a Trek episode that addresses whether a character (with whatever degree of foreknowledge they have) should or should not try to improve the future, even if it changes what is "known" will happen? Would that also have implications on whether characters should try to improve circumstances in general, all the time, even when they don't know what the future holds? I can't think of a specific time travel episode that addresses this idea right now (there probably is one), but it is interesting question.