Predict the Rotten Tomatoes & Metacritic score for ST : Beyond

[CorporalClegg]

If you can't make an argument without using a straw man, don't criticize others for "severe lacks of comprehension."

But none the less, you argued that it's dubious films do twice as much on Friday as they do Saturday and showed a film that did almost twice as much on Friday as it did Saturday.

Are you for real?

 

[KGator]

I still have not seen proof that Thursday figures are included in Friday's BO numbers but I'm willing to make a concession to that, except the evidence I DO see on The Numbers for Into Darkness though for example, shows the 3 day weekend BO total and then adds the $13 million for early release numbers..they are not considered the same.

RAMA

Anyone who is in the industry, talks to someone in the industry, follows the industry or talks to people who follow the industry knows how previews are handled. But you are correct, it isn't common knowledge. And I didn't realize how little it was actually discussed until just now. However, it makes it easier to identify people who really track box office and those who don't. But just for the edification of people who are interested . . . .

The anticipation for this one has been insane among the faithful, and the only risk is that it fills up too much demand (especially if the film isn’t general audience-friendly) before the first official day. If Man of Steel can earn $21m worth of Thursday grosses ($12m on Thursday evening, $9m at midnight), then Dawn of Justice can certainly take a shot at the bronze, especially with Friday being a holiday and the Thursday numbers starting early enough for bedtime on a school night. Now we get into the Friday gross, which, yes, will include the Thursday preview numbers.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...g-weekend-box-office-prediction/#6278db54a8c6

It counts towards Fridays total so yes.
TFA made $57mil on Thurs and $63m on Friday given the $120mil total thrown around.

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/...ursday_previews_count_toward_opening_weekend/

An opening weekend typically runs from Friday to the Sunday, but some films can open earlier in what is euphemistically called ‘previews’. In the USA this can mean a movie opens in New York and Los Angeles before it goes nationwide. In the UK, big cinemas throughout the country can begin showing a new film on the Wednesday (or earlier), giving a few days of box office advantage over a rival that sticks to the Friday release date.

Weekend box office tables typically show all the ticket sales taken – with previews included. So what kind of advantage can be gained through this trick? Let’s deal with Michael Bay’s Transformers first. The headline table shows the film took over £11million last weekend.

https://www.statslife.org.uk/culture/1659-how-to-juke-the-opening-weekend-box-office-stats

 

[KGator]

If you can't make an argument without using a straw man, don't criticize others for "severe lacks of comprehension."

But none the less, you argued that it's dubious films do twice as much on Friday as they do Saturday and showed a film that did almost twice as much on Friday as it did Saturday.

Are you for real?

I cited the movie that set all box office records (and quite recently) as an example how the math you suggested was completely and utterly impossible. Sure, I respect your sticking to your guns despite the evidence presented and suggesting that the reason that those numbers seem so out of whack are "theater screen adjustments". However, please refer to my previous post where I cite additional internet sources showing that your theory is, in fact, NOT the reason the numbers look the way they do. Preview numbers have always been counted on the official opening day box office sales.

 

[CorporalClegg]

And it's still immaterial to my argument.

 

[KGator]

And it's still immaterial to my argument.

Maybe you should restate your argument then, as currently presented, I stated that preview numbers being included as Friday totals was empirically obvious by looking at the box office totals of blockbusters where not only would Friday's gross (a national workday) be larger than Saturday totals but sometimes they would almost be DOUBLE the Saturday numbers.

"Do you actually think that some movies are REALLY doing almost twice as much revenue on Fridays as they are on Saturdays despite almost complete sell outs? Does the idea of theater capacity never even enter your mind?"

Then you chimed in with "Because it's impossible to adjust the number of screens from Friday to Saturday." Which I assumed was sarcasm. If it was simply a statement . . . . what WAS your point?

 

[photon70]

https://cdanews.com/2016/07/ghostbusters-in-competition-at-box-office-even-before-it-opens/

Hopefully, we won't see any headlines like this next week.

Ghostbusters isn't tracking well but anything can happen this coming weekend.

 

[KGator]

https://cdanews.com/2016/07/ghostbusters-in-competition-at-box-office-even-before-it-opens/

Hopefully, we won't see any headlines like this next week.

Ghostbusters isn't tracking well but anything can happen this coming weekend.

I think Ghostbusters is the next summer sequel bomb - following in the footsteps of Alice 2, TMNT2, IDR, etc. Between ongoing competition from Pets for families, Mike and Dave for the 20 something crowd and STB opening in its second weekend and taking out GB's legs . . . I don't see it getting to $100 million. Probably finishing in the $80-90m range.

 

[RAMA]

I think I see where we are confusing terms. Technically a 3 day weekend box office total is given, but then a "total" box office number is also stated..so we will see a 3 day number listed as the time and for example with STID the amount for 3 days will be $70 million, but the "total" amount will include previews, which is $83 million. Also, generally when the first box office news is released, they do split the Thursday total (as with your superman example) from the Friday total but then include as the 3-day weekend total. Regardless, a Thursday total does exist and is often used.

I still have not seen where the "tracking" number includes the Thursday total however.

Anyone who is in the industry, talks to someone in the industry, follows the industry or talks to people who follow the industry knows how previews are handled. But you are correct, it isn't common knowledge. And I didn't realize how little it was actually discussed until just now. However, it makes it easier to identify people who really track box office and those who don't. But just for the edification of people who are interested . . . .

The anticipation for this one has been insane among the faithful, and the only risk is that it fills up too much demand (especially if the film isn’t general audience-friendly) before the first official day. If Man of Steel can earn $21m worth of Thursday grosses ($12m on Thursday evening, $9m at midnight), then Dawn of Justice can certainly take a shot at the bronze, especially with Friday being a holiday and the Thursday numbers starting early enough for bedtime on a school night. Now we get into the Friday gross, which, yes, will include the Thursday preview numbers.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...g-weekend-box-office-prediction/#6278db54a8c6

It counts towards Fridays total so yes.
TFA made $57mil on Thurs and $63m on Friday given the $120mil total thrown around.

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/...ursday_previews_count_toward_opening_weekend/

An opening weekend typically runs from Friday to the Sunday, but some films can open earlier in what is euphemistically called ‘previews’. In the USA this can mean a movie opens in New York and Los Angeles before it goes nationwide. In the UK, big cinemas throughout the country can begin showing a new film on the Wednesday (or earlier), giving a few days of box office advantage over a rival that sticks to the Friday release date.

Weekend box office tables typically show all the ticket sales taken – with previews included. So what kind of advantage can be gained through this trick? Let’s deal with Michael Bay’s Transformers first. The headline table shows the film took over £11million last weekend.

https://www.statslife.org.uk/culture/1659-how-to-juke-the-opening-weekend-box-office-stats

Your social media posts border on wishful thinking, Box Office Pro says this: Social media awareness has been solid, especially on Twitter where its trailer debuts have easily outpaced those from the last film Star Trek Into Darkness.

As I posted before, Deadline says this: On social, Star Trek Beyond boasts the largest social media universe (across Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube) out of the July live-action tentpoles with 166.6M, followed by Ghostbusters (142.5M) and Jason Bourne (67.8M) per RelishMix. The Secret Life of Pets is tops overall with 221.5M and a viral pass-around rate for its videos of 8 to 1. There’s also a Kevin Hart component to Secret Life of Pets’ social thrust. After Jason Bourne, Ghostbusters videos are re-posting at a viral rate of 11 to 1 while Star Trek Beyond is at 6 to 1.

As well as this:

Again, these are early forecasts for Star Trek Beyond, and a number of factors and ad spots could spike the threequel’s B.O. power in the weeks ahead. First, that mid-July release date for Star Trek Beyond has historically been a rich period for launching fanboy properties such as the Dark Knight sequels ($158M-$161M FSS), Captain America: The First Avenger ($65M), Ant-Man ($57.2M), and The Wolverine ($53M). So, Paramount has that working in its favor.

The studio is also banking on generating a huge amount of buzz out of Comic-Con with a fan premiere of the Justin Lin-directed movie on Wednesday, July 20 — an event that will truly send hashtags by the thousands across social. Also on that day, at select Imax and PLF screens in U.S. and Canada, Paramount will show the entire Bad Robot/Skydance trilogy of Star Trek movies for the price of a single marathon ticket.

In addition, the Sledgehammer video also has almost 16 million views...free publicity.

RAMA

 

[KGator]

I still have not seen where the "tracking" number includes the Thursday total however.

If you check the theater you will see listings for STB showings on Thursday night (July 21). Yet when you see the estimates for OW and the published dailies there will be no numbers shown for that Thursday date because that night's box office will be lumped onto Friday's total.

As I posted before, Deadline says this: On social, Star Trek Beyond boasts the largest social media universe (across Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube) out of the July live-action tentpoles with 166.6M, followed by Ghostbusters (142.5M) and Jason Bourne (67.8M) per RelishMix. The Secret Life of Pets is tops overall with 221.5M and a viral pass-around rate for its videos of 8 to 1. There’s also a Kevin Hart component to Secret Life of Pets’ social thrust. After Jason Bourne, Ghostbusters videos are re-posting at a viral rate of 11 to 1 while Star Trek Beyond is at 6 to 1.

Star Trek already brings a large social media presence to the internet, something that most franchises don't enjoy. Rhianna is bringing attention to the release but might also skew the numbers as fans of the video and singer will be lumped into chatter for the film itself. And of course, much of the stories regarding the film recently are about the Yelchin tragedy and Sulu's character being the first LGBT character in the Star Trek universe. Whether these topics translate to actual admissions are debatable. But STB has gone from being completely off the radar to a larger blip on the radar. One factor that might help STB is the fact that since Star Trek skews an older, male demographic that it can be argued this group is not as connected to social media as younger generations are. I'm not sure how to interpret the lower ratio of trailer postings compared to other movies, perhaps it is because of all the other topics surrounding the film that are being discussed.

In addition, the Sledgehammer video also has almost 16 million views...free publicity.

Agreed, this was a smart move to bring her celebrity status to bear on the movie. I'm not sure if it will create mass interest among her fans but every little bit helps. If STB hits to the lower end of estimates, ($50m) that would be a drop off of almost a 3rd from the 2009 release indicating that the nostalgia and general interest has continued to wane as we get farther from the reboot. This coming Comic-Con preview could go a long way to generating positive buzz among scifi fan boys and the hard core Trek fans are the backbone of the franchise. I'm hopeful that good reviews from critics and Comic-Con will push the OW into the low to mid 60's which can be made up with a continued improvement in popularity overseas.

 

[photon70]

Wondering if those that have seen the movie at the premiere have a gut feeling on the potential box office performance in North America.

$257.7m for ST09 and $228.8 for STiD.

This summer has seen big release movies split into two camps.

Those that opened soft and went nowhere; those that opened big and went massive.

I know which camp I want STB to be in!

 

[photon70]

Well, Ghostbusters isn't getting any kind reviews from the 5,200 people that have seen it and reviewed it on IMDB.

Average review score is sitting at 3.8.

Hopefully this will translate to some pent up demand for a good non-animated movie on the weekend of 22-24 July 2016.

 

[CorporalClegg]

Yeah. Ghostbusters looks like it's probably going to bomb.

On the one hand, I'm really disappointed. While I was never much of a GB fan when I was a kid and was probably going to wait for video anyway, I really wanted it to succeed because I'm such a big proponent of gender-bending roles.

At the same time, I find it somewhat bittersweet because there seems to be a sort of perfect storm brewing for Trek to strike big.

 

[AndyPandy]

Reposted from my spoiler thread (I've seen the film):

I predict that RT and Metacritic scores will be on par with Star Trek XI - 95% on RT, 80-90 on Metacritic.

My personal belief is that it's the strongest of the three films both as a standalone story and as a "Star Trek" film. I'm confident that the early reviews will be glowing for the film - so I'm predicting that an incredibly strong opening weekend (helped by small scale or mediocre competition like Ghostbusters: Axanar), the Rihanna partnership, and a HUGE push into China and the other East Asian markets (it's co-produced by Alibaba and Huahua Media), will put Star Trek Beyond into the region of US$400-$500m at the international box office. In comparison, Star Trek XI took some US$385m.

 

[photon70]

Reposted from my spoiler thread (I've seen the film):

I predict that RT and Metacritic scores will be on par with Star Trek XI - 95% on RT, 80-90 on Metacritic.

My personal belief is that it's the strongest of the three films both as a standalone story and as a "Star Trek" film. I'm confident that the early reviews will be glowing for the film - so I'm predicting that an incredibly strong opening weekend (helped by small scale or mediocre competition like Ghostbusters: Axanar), the Rihanna partnership, and a HUGE push into China and the other East Asian markets (it's co-produced by Alibaba and Huahua Media), will put Star Trek Beyond into the region of US$400-$500m at the international box office. In comparison, Star Trek XI took some US$385m.

Do you mean US$400-$500m + additional from North America or US$400-$500m all up?

 

[CorporalClegg]

If you take ST09 domestic + ID foreign, you're already basically looking at $500m, and that's before adjusted.

I think both can easily be matched.

 

[Smellmet]

Yeah. Ghostbusters looks like it's probably going to bomb.

On the one hand, I'm really disappointed. While I was never much of a GB fan when I was a kid and was probably going to wait for video anyway, I really wanted it to succeed because I'm such a big proponent of gender-bending roles.

At the same time, I find it somewhat bittersweet because there seems to be a sort of perfect storm brewing for Trek to strike big.

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Is it just wishful thinking though? Certainly these tracking numbers have been way off this year - massively so in the case of Deadpool. Even The Secret Life of Pets opened over 20% higher than anticipated. I'm just so desperate for this movie to do well. At this point, I think the biggest threat to Beyond is Jason Bourne on it's second weekend.

 

[photon70]

Some early Twitter reactions (not reviews) are being allowed by Paramount from critics.

There was supposed to be a critics' screen in LA in the last 24 hours?

Can anyone verify?

 

[photon70]

http://www.monkeysfightingrobots.com/star-trek-beyond-reactions-hit-twitter-film-is-being-praised/

Found an article with some Twitter reactions from those who saw it today. Not sure if its at the critics screening that was rumoured to have taken place in LA.

Scott Mantz loved it.

Someone else said it was basically a big fun TOS episode.

http://trekmovie.com/2016/07/13/first-reactions-to-star-trek-beyond-overwhelmingly-positive/

More of the same from Tekmovie.

 

[RAMA]

The word is given!! #StarTrekBeyond is a blast! Great fun, action, humor! A throwback to The Original Series! LOVE!

https://twitter.com/MovieMantz?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

http://www.monkeysfightingrobots.com/star-trek-beyond-reactions-hit-twitter-film-is-being-praised/

Found an article with some Twitter reactions from those who saw it today. Not sure if its at the critics screening that was rumoured to have taken place in LA.

Scott Mantz loved it.

Someone else said it was basically a big fun TOS episode.

http://trekmovie.com/2016/07/13/first-reactions-to-star-trek-beyond-overwhelmingly-positive/

More of the same from Tekmovie.

 

[RAMA]

My prediction hasn't budged, $555 milion 92% RT

Reposted from my spoiler thread (I've seen the film):

I predict that RT and Metacritic scores will be on par with Star Trek XI - 95% on RT, 80-90 on Metacritic.

My personal belief is that it's the strongest of the three films both as a standalone story and as a "Star Trek" film. I'm confident that the early reviews will be glowing for the film - so I'm predicting that an incredibly strong opening weekend (helped by small scale or mediocre competition like Ghostbusters: Axanar), the Rihanna partnership, and a HUGE push into China and the other East Asian markets (it's co-produced by Alibaba and Huahua Media), will put Star Trek Beyond into the region of US$400-$500m at the international box office. In comparison, Star Trek XI took some US$385m.