Predict the Rotten Tomatoes & Metacritic score for ST : Beyond

[photon70]

Wonder how everyone feels about a potential opening weekend numbers in North America for STB.

On one hand, I feel optimistic as both the 2nd and 3rd trailers appeared to have been very well received.

On the other hand, this summer has generally been a slow one in North America aside from a couple of films doing well.

ID4R basically bombed last weekend.

BFG and Tarzan are both tracking to open in the $30m range.

Ghostbusters is tracking to open in the $40-$50m range.

One can argue the public is waiting for the next summer movie, one that is well received by critics and the public, before going back to the cinemas.

 

[Smellmet]

Wonder how everyone feels about a potential opening weekend numbers in North America for STB.

On one hand, I feel optimistic as both the 2nd and 3rd trailers appeared to have been very well received.

On the other hand, this summer has generally been a slow one in North America aside from a couple of films doing well.

ID4R basically bombed last weekend.

BFG and Tarzan are both tracking to open in the $30m range.

Ghostbusters is tracking to open in the $40-$50m range.

One can argue the public is waiting for the next summer movie, one that is well received by critics and the public, before going back to the cinemas.

I'd like to think that it's going to have an opening of 80 mill plus, especially with Independence Day tanking, and Ghostbusters expected to do similar business. I think it's a really difficult one to predict - one one hand it could open as low as 40 million, but the film just looks visually spectacular - and the last two trailers have been excellent. I reckon 60 million, and that would be dissappointing.

 

[photon70]

I'd like to think that it's going to have an opening of 80 mill plus, especially with Independence Day tanking, and Ghostbusters expected to do similar business. I think it's a really difficult one to predict - one one hand it could open as low as 40 million, but the film just looks visually spectacular - and the last two trailers have been excellent. I reckon 60 million, and that would be dissappointing.

If less than $60m, I'd be very dissapointed.

If in the range of low to mid-$70m, that would be my absolute minimum.

If the film has some legs, then a $70-$75m opening for a 3 day weekend would result in a final gross in North America similar to the earlier two films of $220m to $255m.

I think a lot depends on pent up demand if the next few weekends see relatively low openings for new movies.

I'd be keen to know what Paramount would publicly admit as their expected opening weekend number for STB.

Likewise, I'm hoping for an opening of about $80-$85m.

The marketing has certainly gone up a notch or two.

 

[Smellmet]

I wonder what Paramount's bottom line is for a possible sequel - $450 million worldwide? I suspect STB needs to do a minimum of STID's gross for us to have any chance of a further sequel.

 

[photon70]

I wonder what Paramount's bottom line is for a possible sequel - $450 million worldwide? I suspect STB needs to do a minimum of STID's gross for us to have any chance of a further sequel.

There were one or two articles mentioning what they perceived to be the minimum number worldwide of $500m.

I think $500m will be reached very easily this time round.

I'm just wondering with all the trailers we've see so far, can be budget still be just $150m?

 

[Smellmet]

It certainly looks like a big budget blockbuster. Surely 150mil is on the conservative side, just the starbase visuals alone look worth the price of admission.

 

[CorporalClegg]

I think it's going to do well, perhaps even better than ST09.

One thing that's evident in the trailers is that Lin was going for a really provocative and unique look. And I think critics are looking for something different this year.

The other big blockbusters of the year have been pretty by the numbers. While Civil War was the most visually impressive, it didn't offer anything that hasn't already been in a MCU film already.

DoJ was just by-the-number Snyder.

Apocalypse's most visually impressive scene was just a rehash of the most visually impressive scene from the previous film.

And ID4-2. Well....

I actually think the fact that it's not Abrams and Lin really did his own thing will work in the film's favor. If the writing is up to Pegg's normal caliber, then I expect very positive reviews.

 

[Smellmet]

Visually this looks the most impressive of all the summer films - it looks a continuation of what JJ did in the first two, but it's own thing at the same time and looks to have taken things up a notch without looking overblown, and like you said it offers something a little different from the other films out this year.

I wonder when we're going to see the first reviews - can't be more than a couple of weeks now. High hopes for this now.

 

[Dales]

Visually this looks the most impressive of all the summer films - it looks a continuation of what JJ did in the first two, but it's own thing at the same time and looks to have taken things up a notch without looking overblown, and like you said it offers something a little different from the other films out this year.

I wonder when we're going to see the first reviews - can't be more than a couple of weeks now. High hopes for this now.

the embargo my might lift two days before release date but I hope it lifts a week before.
http://screenrant.com/star-trek-beyond-premiere-comic-con/

 

[Kelthaz]

I'm really not feeling the buzz for this film. 2016 is a pretty crowded year and audiences are being very picky. We're seeing lots of big budget films bomb at the box office and, although I don't think Beyond is going to bomb, I really can't see it doing very well either.

RT - 70-80%

Domestic - $140-150m
International - $250m

 

[CorporalClegg]

They've bombed because, quite frankly, they weren't very good. People (critics and movie goers alike) are looking for something to latch on to. For example, while Civil War was good and all, I didn't think it was nearly as strong as some of past MCU films, and I think it received higher grades than it would have in other years because there's been so much mediocrity this year.

 

[ComicGuy89]

I confess that part of me is worried that it will follow the trend of the other blockbuster sequel movies this year and not do that well.

However we have seen that being a sequel can only be wildly successful, such as Civil War and Finding Dory. Perhaps Star Trek could find its audience and do well. Time will tell.

 

[johnjm22]

I think STB will be the best of the 3 movies simply because it will have a more coherent story. Critically, it won't do as well as ST09 because it doesn't have the freshness factor ST09 did. I do think it will be more well received by critics than STID, which only got a lukewarm reception (72% on metacritic).

I think it will under perform both STID and ST09 at the box office when adjusted for inflation. There's not much buzz for the film, and Paramount's marketing strategy to bring in younger viewers and minorities won't work, and it will simultaneously push away people with a passing interest in ST.

 

[tomalak301]

Rotten Tomatoes: 85%
Metacritic: 78 (I don't really go to Metacritic that much).

 

[CorporalClegg]

I don't like MC either.

I think it's too arbitrary, more so than RT even.

 

[tomalak301]

I don't like MC either.

I think it's too arbitrary, more so than RT even.

I don't understand it. Something that is considered good could only get something in the 70s and when I was going to school that was average territory. At least with RT you have a little more transparency.

 

[photon70]

I don't understand it. Something that is considered good could only get something in the 70s and when I was going to school that was average territory. At least with RT you have a little more transparency.

If I understand MC correctly, it is actually a better indicator of the average review score.

RT just show a percentage of reviews that are positive.

So for example, you might have 10 reviews, of which 1 is negative (1 star out of 5), 6 are slightly positive (3 stars out of 5) and 3 very positive (4 stars out of 5).

RT would say the film is 90% fresh.

MC would say the film has a score of 62% due to the large number of only slightly positive reviews, in this example 31 stars out of a possible 50.

 

[johnjm22]

Metacritic is the best metric for measuring a movie's general critical reception.

 

[johnjm22]

Opening weekend predictions for STB:
IMDB - 60M
BoxOffice.com - 56M

IMDB's predictions for opening weekend have been pretty accurate. I think 60M is about right.

 

[Dac]

I like to think I have a pretty good gut for what will be a bomb and what will be a hit, but Star Trek Beyond has forever been a grey amorphous blob that I don't feel comfortable predicting for the longest time. Now we've got the third trailer, Rihanna's Sledgehammer video and more and more news stories about it....

I think a $90 Million opening weekend is not too far fetched. But i'm gonna be conservative and peg it at $75-80 Million. I expect it to do as well as the original (First 2009 film) financially and critically.


RT: 92%

Metacritic: 70/100

$500 Million worldwide certainly seems plausible to me.

EDIT: WOW - I had no idea the North American Box Office was doing THAT badly. I was considering $100 Million OW the baseline for a "successful" film these days. Last year I was pretty damned sure it was. Now I'm seeing folks say STB is going to get $60 Million OW?! Looking at how almost every other film this year has performed...damn, I guess that is a realistic outlook now. I can't believe Collider pegged it at 60 Mil and being the second highest film of July...that seems crazy to me.

I suddenly have a bad feeling about this.