Predict the Rotten Tomatoes & Metacritic score for ST : Beyond

[KGator]

By the way, some big movies with great legs (not typical mind you) are:
The Martian = 4.2
The Force Awakens = 3.8 (completely amazing considering the movie actually SET the opening weekend record)
The Revenant = 4.4
Inside Out = 3.9
Zootopia = 4.8
MI:RN = 3.7
Amer Sniper = 3.9

The point is when calculating the final box office, taking STB's opening weekend and using a conservative 3.0 multiplier will give us a pretty good estimate on it's final tally. Poor WOM could obviously crush this and poor reviews can take the legs out of the opening weekend. Still, when trying to determine where the Studio goes in the future with the franchise, box office success is the key ingredient to look at. Staying above $200 million domestic and expanding the overseas cume would be a GREAT success in a year where so many tentpole productions have flopped. Keep in mind that an overseas box office increase is NOT a given. Due to exchange rates, if STB did the same as STID in actual attendance the box office revenue would be $20-30 million less. So STB now only has to increase attendance but do so in a healthy amount to generate a higher revenue. Plus, China is so flaky with their moviegoing tastes and industry protective government release dates that they can't be counted on for the increase you would expect (based on the increase from the first film to the second).

 

[RAMA]

I say roundly criticized because how many directors do interviews where they have to defend a movie trailer the way Justin Lin did???

That has nothing to do with Lin, it has to do with perception by some viewers who have no idea that a 90 second teaser is not supposed to spell out the plot to them..

 

[KGator]

That has nothing to do with Lin, it has to do with perception by some viewers who have no idea that a 90 second teaser is not supposed to spell out the plot to them..

I'm not saying that it does and if you want to go ahead and explain that to the general public, be my guest. However, when a director has to answer questions about a trailer then YES, it means that the trailer was not received as favorably as hoped . . . since you know . . . 99% of directors DO NOT have to answer questions on why their trailers have garnered public criticism when doing publicity interviews for a film. What, did you not think Lin, the director, was involved with creation of the trailer??? Either way, in this case, "Reaction perceived is reaction achieved".

"Simon Pegg joins criticism of Star Trek Beyond trailer" - The Guardian
"Why Simon Pegg Didn't Like The Star Trek Beyond Trailer" - Cinemablend
"Justin Lin Addresses Star Trek Beyond Trailer Complaints" - themarysue.com
"Justin Lin Reacts to Criticism of Star Trek Beyond Trailer" - Treknews.net
"Star Trek Beyond director Justin Lin defends trailer after fans criticise its Fast and Furious feel" - The Independent

And there are numerous other snippets pointing to the very same premise in other articles that discuss subsequent trailers.
"While the blockbuster's first Beastie Boys-assisted trailer was roundly criticized for being perhaps too carefree and action-packed – even actor and Star Trek Beyond co-screenwriter Simon Pegg admitted of the first trailer, "I didn't love it. I know there’s a lot more to the film."" - Rolling Stone

 

[johnjm22]

The first trailer is one of the most poorly received disliked movie trailers EVER.

This IS the initial projection for Beyond, and as pointed out, they were wrong with ST09.

That's true.

It will be very interesting to see if Paramount's marketing campaign to draw in new demographics will work. By the time STB comes out, I'm guessing 20M+ people will have watched that Rihanna video. Many of them are people that are new to Trek. The question is, how many of them will be interested enough in the movie to actually see it?

The current condition of the domestic market is that people are looking for a good movie, and Beyond looks like it's it. Suicide Squad is not a family movie. Bourne isn't.

It's your opinion that Beyond looks like a good movie. Who knows the what general audiences out there think, or if they even care. My opinion is that it will be the best of the 3 movies, but I'd never guess it based on the trailers.

The first trailer was watched by 40 million+ people. Most people liked it and it got a nomination for best teaser trailer.

It's probably one of the most disliked, poorly received major movie trailers ever. You have to look at these things on a relative basis. 2/3 like rate is not good.

First impressions matter. Having this trailer as the first impression was a mistake. It makes the movie look generic and forgettable, and that's what will stick in peoples minds if it sticks at all. Also, not all 'likes' are the same, they have varying degrees of conviction.

 

[RAMA]

Surely you are joking, These are Trekkies we are talking about. If there were any fans a director would have to explain things to, it would be some of us!

RAMA

I'm not saying that it does and if you want to go ahead and explain that to the general public, be my guest. However, when a director has to answer questions about a trailer then YES, it means that the trailer was not received as favorably as hoped . . . since you know . . . 99% of directors DO NOT have to answer questions on why their trailers have garnered public criticism when doing publicity interviews for a film. What, did you not think Lin, the director, was involved with creation of the trailer??? Either way, in this case, "Reaction perceived is reaction achieved".

"Simon Pegg joins criticism of Star Trek Beyond trailer" - The Guardian
"Why Simon Pegg Didn't Like The Star Trek Beyond Trailer" - Cinemablend
"Justin Lin Addresses Star Trek Beyond Trailer Complaints" - themarysue.com
"Justin Lin Reacts to Criticism of Star Trek Beyond Trailer" - Treknews.net
"Star Trek Beyond director Justin Lin defends trailer after fans criticise its Fast and Furious feel" - The Independent

And there are numerous other snippets pointing to the very same premise in other articles that discuss subsequent trailers.
"While the blockbuster's first Beastie Boys-assisted trailer was roundly criticized for being perhaps too carefree and action-packed – even actor and Star Trek Beyond co-screenwriter Simon Pegg admitted of the first trailer, "I didn't love it. I know there’s a lot more to the film."" - Rolling Stone

 

[RAMA]

If 2/3rds of the people like it then it is certainly not even remotely close to the most poorly received trailer in history. That's no an accurate statement whatsoever. Poorly received trailers are not watched by 40 million people and get nominated for awards.

RAMA

The first trailer is one of the most poorly received disliked movie trailers EVER.

That's true.

It will be very interesting to see if Paramount's marketing campaign to draw in new demographics will work. By the time STB comes out, I'm guessing 20M+ people will have watched that Rihanna video. Many of them are people that are new to Trek. The question is, how many of them will be interested enough in the movie to actually see it?


It's your opinion that Beyond looks like a good movie. Who knows the what general audiences out there think, or if they even care. My opinion is that it will be the best of the 3 movies, but I'd never guess it based on the trailers.


It's probably one of the most disliked, poorly received major movie trailers ever. You have to look at these things on a relative basis. 2/3 like rate is not good.

First impressions matter. Having this trailer as the first impression was a mistake. It makes the movie look generic and forgettable, and that's what will stick in peoples minds if it sticks at all. Also, not all 'likes' are the same, they have varying degrees of conviction.

 

[johnjm22]

If 2/3rds of the people like it then it is certainly not even remotely close to the most poorly received trailer in history. That's no an accurate statement whatsoever. Poorly received trailers are not watched by 40 million people and get nominated for awards.

RAMA

Aside from Ghostbusters, how many major Movie trailers can you find that have 26K+ dislikes? How many have 1-in-3 dislike rate?

I know the Ridiculous 6, (which currently holds a 0% rating on Rotten Tomatoes), has a 1-in-3 dislike rate.

The despised Gods Of Egypt has a 1-in-5 dislike rate, and 14K dislikes on 21M views.

Going by YouTube, I'm guessing the first STB trailer is probably top 10 or top 20 most disliked poorly received contemporary trailers ever.

 

[RAMA]

Nope:

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Other sources are nowhere near the same ratio, suggesting an agenda among certain fans for the main Paramount video.The Facebook source video looked like this:

Only 73 dislikes and 9,000 likes.

There was also a source that was viewed 19 million times but I can't find it. I don't recall what the like to dislike ratio was on it.

I don't really have the wherewithal to check other movie trailers, but I guarantee you this was not in the top 100 worst rated movie trailers.

Aside from Ghostbusters, how many major Movie trailers can you find that have 26K+ dislikes? How many have 1-in-3 dislike rate?

I know the Ridiculous 6, (which currently holds a 0% rating on Rotten Tomatoes), has a 1-in-3 dislike rate.

The despised Gods Of Egypt has a 1-in-5 dislike rate, and 14K dislikes on 21M views.

Going by YouTube, I'm guessing the first STB trailer is probably top 10 or top 20 most disliked poorly received contemporary trailers ever.

 

[KGator]

Surely you are joking, These are Trekkies we are talking about. If there were any fans a director would have to explain things to, it would be some of us!

RAMA

No, I'm not joking. While Trek fans are notoriously hard to please, the teaser trailer was not well received by either ST fans nor the general audience and did very little to build up early expectations for a movie that has, thus far, been lost in the shuffle of a year filled with big budget tentpoles. Your sunshine pumping aside, this movie has very little online buzz and will need a big marketting push to bring it people's attention. I hope they have a plan, otherwise we will see exactly what kind of box office a movie can have with just Star Trek fans buying tickets.

The reason estimates are so low is the lack of Internet dialog regarding the film. Right now it is simply below the radar. Rihanna being involved was a smart move and hopefully can draw some attention from a younger demographic. The next key to the puzzle will be getting good reviews to attract the noncommittal older audience and an enjoyable film to generate positive word of mouth across all various age groups and genders. As well as a last minute blitz to raise general awareness.

 

[KirbyHawk]

Rotten Tomatoes: 70%
MC: 80/100

 

[RAMA]

After looking at twitter reaction from Aussieland, I'm still comfortable with my numbers.

 

[RAMA]

There's been huge social media buzz for a trek film. I posted numbers last week...it's the top talked about and 3rd most shared live action movie of the upcoming summer movies on social media. All statistics, not sunshine.

The Trek film and music video together have trended multiple times on FB and Twitter. The film trended at the top 4 times in one week..leaving and returning to the list at one point. Into Darkness didn't trend as often.

It's currently double-trending on fb:

On rotten tomatoes 99% of 25,000 votes want to see it.

No, I'm not joking. While Trek fans are notoriously hard to please, the teaser trailer was not well received by either ST fans nor the general audience and did very little to build up early expectations for a movie that has, thus far, been lost in the shuffle of a year filled with big budget tentpoles. Your sunshine pumping aside, this movie has very little online buzz and will need a big marketting push to bring it people's attention. I hope they have a plan, otherwise we will see exactly what kind of box office a movie can have with just Star Trek fans buying tickets.




The reason estimates are so low is the lack of Internet dialog regarding the film. Right now it is simply below the radar. Rihanna being involved was a smart move and hopefully can draw some attention from a younger demographic. The next key to the puzzle will be getting good reviews to attract the noncommittal older audience and an enjoyable film to generate positive word of mouth across all various age groups and genders. As well as a last minute blitz to raise general awareness.

 

[Dales]

Rotten Tomatoes: 70%
MC: 80/100

if the film is a 70s on RT , the chances of it been an 80 on MC are very very low

 

[photon70]

if the film is a 70s on RT , the chances of it been an 80 on MC are very very low

Correct. It's usually the other way around.

It is possible but unlikely. It would only come about if you had a small sample or very divergent scores ie, not a bell curve distribution.

RT shows the % of positive reviews, even if it barely passes.

MC is the average score of all reviews.

 

[KGator]

There's been huge social media buzz for a trek film. I posted numbers last week...it's the top talked about and 3rd most shared live action movie of the upcoming summer movies on social media. All statistics, not sunshine.

The Trek film and music video together have trended multiple times on FB and Twitter. The film trended at the top 4 times in one week..leaving and returning to the list at one point. Into Darkness didn't trend as often.

It's currently double-trending on fb:

On rotten tomatoes 99% of 25,000 votes want to see it.

WTH are you talking about? Box office Pro tracks Facebook and Twitter daily. For today STB is currently 9th place on FB and isn't in the top 10 on Twitter. Rankings can ebb and flow with trailer releases, news articles, celebrity posts, etc but a BIG blockbuster less than 3 weeks out would consistently be in the top 3. Even a lesser sized but highly anticipated film should remain in the top 7 films being discussed. You are citing "want to see" on RottenTomatoes? Seriously? What else do you consider "social media"? The number of times your friends send you a text message? I'm surprised you didn't state that "Star Trek Beyond" is the most anticipated 2016 film on Trek BBS as part of your social media argument.

I'm beginning to think that not only are you out of your element on box office trends (as your confusion on the treatment of preview numbers suggested) but also not that savvy regarding social media either. This is obviously your first rodeo and, as such, you are out of touch with the constantly evolving movie marketplace and randomly selecting various facts as you go along to try and justify your "gut" feelings.

 

[EyalM]

^^I checked the site. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Facebook ranking is based on the difference in the number of likes today from yesterday. Which doesn't make sense to me. But Beyond's overall number of likes is the second highest on the list. Almost a million more than suicide squad.

 

[RAMA]

I just posted the numbers and cited the source last week!! You obviously weren't paying attention.

I still have not seen proof that Thursday figures are included in Friday's BO numbers but I'm willing to make a concession to that, except the evidence I DO see on The Numbers for Into Darkness though for example, shows the 3 day weekend BO total and then adds the $13 million for early release numbers..they are not considered the same.

Everything else I've said has been demonstrably correct. My prediction however is my own.

I've probably been following box office numbers and trends longer than you've been born. The fact that you didn't know about the tracking numbers for the previous 2 JJ movies as well as some of the things you said about them show me you have an agenda.

RAMA

WTH are you talking about? Box office Pro tracks Facebook and Twitter daily. For today STB is currently 9th place on FB and isn't in the top 10 on Twitter. Rankings can ebb and flow with trailer releases, news articles, celebrity posts, etc but a BIG blockbuster less than 3 weeks out would consistently be in the top 3. Even a lesser sized but highly anticipated film should remain in the top 7 films being discussed. You are citing "want to see" on RottenTomatoes? Seriously? What else do you consider "social media"? The number of times your friends send you a text message? I'm surprised you didn't state that "Star Trek Beyond" is the most anticipated 2016 film on Trek BBS as part of your social media argument.

I'm beginning to think that not only are you out of your element on box office trends (as your confusion on the treatment of preview numbers suggested) but also not that savvy regarding social media either. This is obviously your first rodeo and, as such, you are out of touch with the constantly evolving movie marketplace and randomly selecting various facts as you go along to try and justify your "gut" feelings.

 

[KGator]

I just posted the numbers and cited the source last week!! You obviously weren't paying attention.

I still have not seen proof that Thursday figures are included in Friday's BO numbers but I'm willing to make a concession to that, except the evidence I DO see on The Numbers for Into Darkness though for example, shows the 3 day weekend BO total and then adds the $13 million for early release numbers..they are not considered the same.

Everything else I've said has been demonstrably correct. My prediction however is my own.

I've probably been following box office numbers and trends longer than you've been born. The fact that you didn't know about the tracking numbers for the previous 2 JJ movies as well as some of the things you said about them show me you have an agenda.

RAMA

You've been tracking box office numbers for more than 4 decades and never once paid attention to preview numbers even though the professionals and those who follow box office for a hobby will actually USE preview numbers to help predict the upcoming opening weekend!!! Yeah right. You can't follow a single blockbuster opening, be able to do simple math and not see the obvious. Even if you don't follow any of the trade sites, message boards or news articles . . . . Do you actually think that some movies are REALLY doing almost twice as much revenue on Fridays as they are on Saturdays despite almost complete sell outs? Does the idea of theater capacity never even enter your mind?

If I have an agenda then it is calling into question anyone who proclaims himself to be an expert in a topic when they seem to be lacking a basic understanding of how a system operates. That's like saying you are an expert in football but never heard of a 2 point conversion. Your so called "expertise" is bound to be called into question.

 

[CorporalClegg]

Because it's impossible to adjust the number of screens showing a film from Friday to Saturday.

 

[KGator]

Because it's impossible to adjust the number of screens showing a film from Friday to Saturday.

Yes, it is!!! You have already published movie times and opened up sales on your own and generic industry internet ticket sales sites. Theaters can rearrange a limited number of screens but they have to make those choices BEFORE they open ticket sales. Not to mention, theater chains have agreements with various distributors (this is why theaters cannot just show one or two movies on the eve of a huge blockbuster). Screen decisions are not changed mid weekend.

And think about it . . . . if screens were increased then why are the Saturday box office amounts DECREASING!!! Does that make any sense at all? Star Wars the Force Awakens made $119 million on Friday and then another $68 million on Saturday. $41 million dollars LESS and your theory is what . . . . that they opened up MORE screens and nobody went or that they just decided to close a bunch of sold out screens to spite the general public???

I feel like there's a severe lack of comprehension on not only how the movie industry works but additionally on how a basic free market economy operates also.