Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?
To all those people predicting some sort of huge rest of the world gross, it's a matter of fact that the last decent Trek film, Star Trek: First Contact only made 37% of it's worldwide gross outside of America.
Insurrection made the same percentage of total gross outside of the US, while Nemesis took 35% and Generations 36%.
The Undiscovered Country, a cracking good film, only took 22.7% of total gross outside the US.
If Trek Xl maintains those sort of percentages, a $100 million US gross + rest of the world wouldn't even get near to break even.
While the TNG movies were undeniably more popular, the above figures strongly suggest that the same people watch Trek films at the cinema, and that the films do not attract new viewers.
Now we all know Nemesis was shite, but regardless of how much I love Trek, if I was head of Paramount and saw the $32 million drop in US gross between Generations and Nemesis, combined with the debacle of Enterprise, a show which the fans turned off in droves, I wouldn't be spending any amount money on new Star Trek thinking I was going to turn a profit, let alone spending $150m.
Optimistically, I predict a $50-60m max opening weekend and an $75m first week, after which receipts will fall off sharply. Say a final $85m US, and with an optimistic 65% of $85m rest of the world gross, you're looking at about $140m worldwide.
