X-Files Bombs

[mswood]

Serenity almost made it's money back, including world wide. It was $130,000 dollars short of its $39,000,000 budget. That doesn't include distribution costs or advertising (which was minimal). That also doesn't include DVD or television sales.

The X-Files cost less than Serenity ($30 million vs. $39 million), but, as you say, we haven't seen the international numbers yet.

I don't know how people can say Serenity ads were "minimum", I saw them everywhere and they spent 10 million on ads. So it was 10.13 million dollars away from making it's money back.

Just because you generate (lets use the Serenity example) 38.8 million in theatre sales world wide on a production budget of 39 million dollars.

It will earn (in the US it really can vary overseas) only around 55% (now that can vary for films that have the ability to get a higher upfront rate, I can't see Serenity or X-Files being able to do so, though X-Files would have a better shot by far then Serenity) of that for the studio (and thats assuming the studio doesn't share distribution with another for either US or overseas ticket sales).

And the 10 million marketing figure most likely refers to only US marketing (unknown if that includes the print cost, some times yes sometimes no). It is exceptional rare that world wide marketing numbers are released (they are in the same place as world wide dvd sales, rentals and tv rights that studios seem to never have open accounting practices with).


So lets just pretend that the 10 million is both marketing and print cost (quite possible) and that it is both US and Overseas cost (highly doubtful). That means it full cost was 49 (and again this is highly suspect). At 49 million Serenity to break even (at the theaters) would need to generate roughly nearly 90 million dollars in ticket sales.

Basically its theater run covered at very best half of all its cost. It would then fall to its dvd sales/rentals, tv rights, ect to generate the remaining.

Now again the X-files in in better shape (though again in the industries eyes and currently the studios its a bomb) with a 30 million budget and most likely an equally low US marketing campaign. It will need to generate less total revenue. With it already exceeding the overseas total of Serenity and with several major markets left (which will take months to hit). X-files (working under the same assumptions of world wide marketing and print costs) will come much closer to breaking even solely off of its theatrical run.

 

[Joby]

They did not engergize the fanbase enough, and truthfully The X-Files base is not and never has been as loyal, passionate and built in to go as the Trek base has always been.

Not to mention the changing landscape of television drama over the past 10 years. X-Files ruled this genre back in the 90s, but today Mulder and Scully seem a bit dated next to Heroes, Lost and 24. Despite the fact that they were in many ways the ones the paved the way for those subsequent shows.

 

[sidious618]

They did not engergize the fanbase enough, and truthfully The X-Files base is not and never has been as loyal, passionate and built in to go as the Trek base has always been.

Not to mention the changing landscape of television drama over the past 10 years. X-Files ruled this genre back in the 90s, but today Mulder and Scully seem a bit dated next to Heroes, Lost and 24. Despite the fact that they were in many ways the ones the paved the way for those subsequent shows.

I can't say that Heroes, LOST or 24 has created such alive characters in the public eye (I'm not saying they don't, LOST is vey good at that, but they are not as well known).

 

[payndz201]

Just looking at the figures on the-numbers.com, Aliens Vs Predator: Requiem made less at the US box office than The X Files ($14.9m to $17m), but has so far made another $26 million+ on DVD, bringing its combined gross to $40 million. If X Files performs similarly on DVD, and there's no reason to think it shouldn't, it'll probably end up making Fox a modest profit. That's in the US alone: add 50% to 100% more for the eventual overseas take.

Hardly blockbuster performance, but Fox may yet ask for another movie eventually - if the budget is kept low and, I'd imagine, Carter is asked to make a more overtly commercial movie. Maybe we'll see the werewolf they used for the fake spoilers after all!

 

[Trippy]

Nah we need the 2012 storyline

 

[sidious618]

Nah we need the 2012 storyline

Absolutely. And I can see it being done on a small budget if they work at it hard enough.

 

[mswood]

Just looking at the figures on the-numbers.com, Aliens Vs Predator: Requiem made less at the US box office than The X Files ($14.9m to $17m), but has so far made another $26 million+ on DVD, bringing its combined gross to $40 million. If X Files performs similarly on DVD, and there's no reason to think it shouldn't, it'll probably end up making Fox a modest profit. That's in the US alone: add 50% to 100% more for the eventual overseas take.

Hardly blockbuster performance, but Fox may yet ask for another movie eventually - if the budget is kept low and, I'd imagine, Carter is asked to make a more overtly commercial movie. Maybe we'll see the werewolf they used for the fake spoilers after all!

Well unfortunately those numbers aren't accurate.

AvP: Requiem made a 41.8 million US and 87 million overseas for a total of nearly 129 million. No budget info is available, so its hard to guess how well it did or didn't do in the theaters.

But it did significantly less then the 1st AvP which grossed 171 million ww on a budget of 60 million.

 

[Foxy]

I only just got to see the film last night, I was going to go this weekend, however it seems to be the last night of showings tonight in this area. I think that was about a 2 week run in the UK .

I enjoyed it and think it deserved to do better. Advertising was terrible, as an x-files fan you would have thought I would be a prime target for adverts and all I saw was one TV add randomly. If I hadn’t know it was coming I could well have missed it.

I really hope they get another film the 2012 storey needs to be told.

 

[tharpdevenport]

I LOVE passing this around. At one of the film score boards I read, an average joe member like myself, posted this well written and thought out review of the films which I feels captures it perfectly:

Long story short - The X-Files: I Want To Believe gets everything right what The Dark Knight got wrong.

2008 is turning into the year where I'm starting to think the problem isn't Hollywood making bad movies but Hollywood having stupid audiences. For the nihilistic, "damned if you do, damned if you don't" popular morality blather that is the new Batman movie, the new X-Files movie will fail in every possible way. No one is shot, no one is dead-then-alive only for someone else to be dead instead, there is no pastiche of a superior film in attempts to glob another movie's ideas. There is no overblown nonsense of Oscar nominations. There is little preconceived notions about the film and the ones that are are thrown out the door after the first two thirds. The plot's reveal is a good one in that you don't see it coming.

I won't go into the "monster of the week" format - since it isn't there. In fact, there is no monster - and not in the overplayed "humanity is the real monster!" copout or its variations. The "monster" takes a backseat (perhaps too far back) from the rest of the story, revolving around a missing FBI Agent and a local woman. Mulder (complete with crazy man beard) is eventually pulled back into the investigation world by his former partner Scully (who looks great, even though she looks like she could stand to sleep more). Billy Connolly plays a role of a priest with a very dirty background; his part is part-paranormal, part moral center of the film. And in the end, the movie leaves you to ask you where you stand, instead of telling you what to think (which was really the most insulting element of TDK).

Its not a perfect mix - somewhere around the middle it lags and Amanda Peet is simply not convincing in the role. There could have been one more chase and a little less criminal justice science just to give it a little more punch but thats a small misgiving considering the end result.

Its a slowly paced character drama, reminding us that a movie without good characters and a good message is not worth seeing. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that as far as summer blockbusters go - the morality in this is almost reaffirming of something greater than I can describe here. Its not a concrete feeling or a specific moral quandary solved - its simply a lot of good questions and a lot of ernest hope for the future. But being you and I are in this world where people pay to have their intelligence and morals trampled on so long as they can agree that someone dead deserves an acting award as a consolation prize - this film will not be popular, not even for its fanbase. I would go as far to say that the movie is in many ways the movie everyone says they want to see, but end up actively avoiding. After all, how dare we have hope in each other when we can bury ourselves in self-actualizing narcissism.

Chris Carter directs (Frohike is first assisstant director!) what is essentially the biggest valentine of a movie a fan can hope for. If there is no other X-Files movies to follow, he went out on the best note possible and for a man whom I've derided for years as losing track of what made the show great in the beginning, has reaffirmed my faith in him as a writer.

I originally hesitated at the subtitle to the movie. It had long been established as one of the show's catchphrases - but as a movie title, it didn't quite roll around in your mouth. But I wouldn't change it for anything because it really gets the whole idea down pat - I want to *believe*.

 

[mswood]

^ Yeah, but the problem with that review is it only focuses on the character aspect of the two leads (the part of the film that I do find successful with the exclusion of the tag after the credits which seems to actually be a reverse of the message of the film, since it plays directly into what Mulder offers in giving up hope).

But the driving plot is exceptionally weak. The production values aren't that good (and you can be low budget and have good production values), the direction and cinematography aren't strong. The acting is of tv quality. The movie has huge flaws that has absolutely nothing to do with guns or explosions (as someone who prefers character pieces far, far more then Summer films). But I want good solid character pieces and this isn't one of them. Not by a long shot.

 

[Trent Roman]

^ Actually, the problem with the review is that he's pretty clearly reviewing the films of the basis of their compatability with his preferred philosophy rather than their respective constituent elements. Seems 'moral' and 'morality' come up more often than in an episode of Moral Orel.

Fictitiously yours, Trent Roman

 

[Broccoli]

Serenity almost made it's money back, including world wide. It was $130,000 dollars short of its $39,000,000 budget. That doesn't include distribution costs or advertising (which was minimal). That also doesn't include DVD or television sales.

The X-Files cost less than Serenity ($30 million vs. $39 million), but, as you say, we haven't seen the international numbers yet.

I don't know how people can say Serenity ads were "minimum", I saw them everywhere and they spent 10 million on ads. So it was 10.13 million dollars away from making it's money back.

10.13? You're Chris Carter, aren't you?

 

[Eddie Roth]

I think we can all rest assured that however IWTB's boxoffice take ends up, there will eventually be a third movie. Popular franchises are always a somewhat safe bank for studios, and if you consider that other franchises (Batman, James Bond, Alien, Star Trek, etc.) have all had their misfires, they all continue to this very day. So will the TXF. Hell, they're even doing a new Beverly Hills 90210 TV show... In some way, TXF will return, even though I suspect we're going to have to wait for it until the inevitable 90's revival will take place.

 

[Captain Craig]

What is most telling is the massive drop it had in its 4th weekend. It went from spot #12 last week all the way down to #26, one slot above Love Guru which opened a month before. Guru was utter crap. It lost not only a lot of theaters but viewers who might have sought it out. We had a report or two here of those who wanted to check it out in weekend 3 but couldn't find it locally.

It now has $20.5m on a $30m budget with at least another $1 - 1.5m to trickle in after the $1 theaters have had it. I'm surprised its not opened overseas yet? I'm wondering if it will, that would add to its bottom line.

I don't know if DVD sales are enough to push an X-Files 3 or not. I disagree with the idea of comparing this to Batman or Bond that have had lack luster entries. Had Batman Returns or From Russia with Love had as compartively low returns to budget I'm not sure we would've had Batman Forever or Goldfinger.

The business model is different now and due to that it may be the only reason for the XPhiler diehards to remain optimistic. Cause I will. Just as we can't end cinema Trek on Nemesis now can or should we end X-Files with IWTB.

 

[Trippy]

It now has $20.5m on a $30m budget with at least another $1 - 1.5m to trickle in after the $1 theaters have had it. I'm surprised its not opened overseas yet? I'm wondering if it will, that would add to its bottom line.

It has opened overseas. I don't have the numbers for you.

Does Canada count as 'overseas' or domestic?

 

[Captain Craig]

It now has $20.5m on a $30m budget with at least another $1 - 1.5m to trickle in after the $1 theaters have had it. I'm surprised its not opened overseas yet? I'm wondering if it will, that would add to its bottom line.

It has opened overseas. I don't have the numbers for you.

Does Canada count as 'overseas' or domestic?

Some sites report "North American Box Office" which includes Canada of course. While some do country by country break down. Typically Box Office Mojo, where I do most of my looking/discussing has US domestic with Canada being counted as Foreign Box Office.

 

[Harvey]

The Numbers has the international data for the X-Files. I used to love Box Office Mojo, but that site is seriously in decline (even if it has a prettier layout than The Numbers does).

The totals (different than Box Office Mojo, a $35,000,000 budget is listed)

Domestic: $20,504,740
International: $32,600,000

Total: $53,104,740

 

[Captain Craig]

^^^
Nice to see some overseas numbers on X-Files. Those alone make me much more optimistic that with solid DVD sales, home and abroad, that XF:3 may come about afterall.

Even with the disputable $5m discrepancy in budget.

How do you define "decline" as it relates to B.O.M.? Its quoted heavily in other media outlets as a vetted and reliably accurate source.

 

[Harvey]

Decline would be the websites' complete laxness in updating international numbers (this wouldn't have happened a year ago). Another would be its failure to list production budgets on occasion (even when they've been reported elsewhere).