I saw it this afternoon and loved it. I predict that it will find its audience when it comes to dvd.
X-Files Bombs
- Thread starter mswood
- Start date
Positive
Despite the negative people in this thread, I just have a feeling that there will be another film. For those who haven't seen it, read the interview with Frank Spotnitz at http://www.ifmagazine.com/feature.asp?article=2918.
Despite the negative people in this thread, I just have a feeling that there will be another film. For those who haven't seen it, read the interview with Frank Spotnitz at http://www.ifmagazine.com/feature.asp?article=2918.
Advertising and print cost are never really reported for World Wide. You can often get US advertising and print cost.
I'am using 20 million for that (just for speculation), because the people who religiously post on Box office Mojo and follow all pictures year round use that for low budget films (of which this certainly qualifies), it can easily go over 100 million for huge films (of which this isn't). Most blockbusters spend about 60 of ads.
Fox spent was up front about this film. It was made on a low budget to test if there was interest in a possible franchise for the X-Files after the long period between the last (ie after the lawsuits were offer) and to also see how the absence of Duchovny might have impacted the fan base.
Carter knew upfront that they would not have the money for an mythology film. Nor would they have money for an makeup intense creature film. That left them with something that didn't do that often on the show (but did do them, and sometimes exceptional well) human monsters and character pieces.
On the character front I think they filmed worked well (except for the code, WTF). On the human monster side, I think it was far less successful).
I think this film also suffers (I would guess to the tune of about 10-15 million US box office) of being released in the wrong season. This screams for the late September through Halloween season.
If this ends at the 22-26 million range in the US (as I have speculated) you can estimate that the studio will get about 13.5 million of that to apply to the filming (30 million), marketing and printing cost (again assume at least 20 million).
That leaves the film with an additional 38 million minimum needed to even break even.
Will the film do that between Overseas gross (already 9 million of which they should get about 4.8) and home markets (DVD primarily and minor like cable broadcasts)? It should easily be able to do that.
But again, X-Files is not a proven film franchise. Not at all. This isn't a Bond film, or a Trek film where almost every film has just broke even. This is where most films just off the theatres has generated profit.
Film companies (ant their financial backers) don't tend to see a film that just breaks even with a little profit to be a vehicle to keep producing. It just doesn't happen.
Now of course, DVD sales can generate huge profits of which the film studios make a higher profit level then film distrubtion. But will this film do well enough to make them take a sizable monetary risk for another more expensive (which it most likely would be as everything gets more expensive with time)?
Who knows, that we won't know for a while. How about Overseas box office? Again to soon to know. It isn't doing great, but in the markets it has opened it is doing slightly better then what it is doing in the US. But I would assume that it overseas gross won't go over 60 million.
But unless it does play better (much better) in one of those two markets, we as fans will not be getting another X-Files film.
I'am using 20 million for that (just for speculation), because the people who religiously post on Box office Mojo and follow all pictures year round use that for low budget films (of which this certainly qualifies), it can easily go over 100 million for huge films (of which this isn't). Most blockbusters spend about 60 of ads.
Fox spent was up front about this film. It was made on a low budget to test if there was interest in a possible franchise for the X-Files after the long period between the last (ie after the lawsuits were offer) and to also see how the absence of Duchovny might have impacted the fan base.
Carter knew upfront that they would not have the money for an mythology film. Nor would they have money for an makeup intense creature film. That left them with something that didn't do that often on the show (but did do them, and sometimes exceptional well) human monsters and character pieces.
On the character front I think they filmed worked well (except for the code, WTF). On the human monster side, I think it was far less successful).
I think this film also suffers (I would guess to the tune of about 10-15 million US box office) of being released in the wrong season. This screams for the late September through Halloween season.
If this ends at the 22-26 million range in the US (as I have speculated) you can estimate that the studio will get about 13.5 million of that to apply to the filming (30 million), marketing and printing cost (again assume at least 20 million).
That leaves the film with an additional 38 million minimum needed to even break even.
Will the film do that between Overseas gross (already 9 million of which they should get about 4.8) and home markets (DVD primarily and minor like cable broadcasts)? It should easily be able to do that.
But again, X-Files is not a proven film franchise. Not at all. This isn't a Bond film, or a Trek film where almost every film has just broke even. This is where most films just off the theatres has generated profit.
Film companies (ant their financial backers) don't tend to see a film that just breaks even with a little profit to be a vehicle to keep producing. It just doesn't happen.
Now of course, DVD sales can generate huge profits of which the film studios make a higher profit level then film distrubtion. But will this film do well enough to make them take a sizable monetary risk for another more expensive (which it most likely would be as everything gets more expensive with time)?
Who knows, that we won't know for a while. How about Overseas box office? Again to soon to know. It isn't doing great, but in the markets it has opened it is doing slightly better then what it is doing in the US. But I would assume that it overseas gross won't go over 60 million.
But unless it does play better (much better) in one of those two markets, we as fans will not be getting another X-Files film.
Re: Positive
I also was hoping that this movie would be doing better than it is doing. This was the movie that I was most excited about this summer. I have not got to see the movie yet though. I am going this Wednesday. I have taken a day off from my job just to be able to get caught up on movies and I am still excited to see the movie. I joke with my wife that it could be Mulder and Scully reading the phone book and I would love it. For real though, I am glad to see to see the two back together.
I also was hoping that this movie would be doing better than it is doing. This was the movie that I was most excited about this summer. I have not got to see the movie yet though. I am going this Wednesday. I have taken a day off from my job just to be able to get caught up on movies and I am still excited to see the movie. I joke with my wife that it could be Mulder and Scully reading the phone book and I would love it. For real though, I am glad to see to see the two back together.
The last episode of the series sucked. People remember. We are seeing what will happen to a Sopranos movie in the bombing of the X-files.
well I can't argue that the sopranos decided to go out on a low note and left a bad taste in my mouth (and many mouths) - if they ended it the week before that with Tony sweating on the bed at his mothers - that would have been grand
anyway - its been a long while and I can't even remember the finale well, also the return of M & S in the classic format was what worked best
I think lack of action, TDK, bad reviews, no Buzz (CC kept in to quiet) and lackluster marketing if that and well the BO has been weak
but Fox invested little and expects little back so lets see where things go from here
I still haven't gotten around to seeing the X-Files yet, so I guess I'm still part of the problem. I have Wednesday off, hopefully I'll be able to see it then.
Actually I was quite intrigued by the trailers. I like The X-Files enough to want to see a decent film and I was really pleased that they didn't spoil the plot in the trailers.
Then I saw the film and the plot was weak beyond measure. The trailers didn't spoil the plot because there was no plot to spoil.
I admit that maybe I'm not a big enough fan to appreciate what they were trying to do to the full, but my knowledge of the X-Files universe is certainly considerably above the average "man in the street" and that was who the film was aimed at? Its no wonder its not working out.
3D Master
Rear Admiral
Of course it doesn't! And this has nothing to do with the studios, but with the NETWORKS. The NETWORK buys a production and puts it on the tely, and the network doesn't get a single scrap of overseas, DVDs, or merchandising. That money goes to the studio, and studio alone. The only money the network gets, is the money it can charge for the ads running during a show. This based entirely on the ratings. To a network, a tv show is nothing but viewer-incentive to watch the adds.
The only thing you could say, that maybe studios who produce a quality product, that will/does magnificent overseas, in DVDs, and brings in massive merchandising money, should offer a chunk of the pot to networks to keep it on the air, but ultimately the decision about whether or not a show gets canceled, is the networks', and the only that matters to them is ratings.
Studios: yes.
Networks: no.
See above.
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I know I, for one, would rather see TDK for a 100th time than see IWtB for a THIRD time.
In all honesty I'll live happy as an X-Files fan never seeing this movie again. Only thing that'll get to *maybe* buy it is if Rifftrax picks it up.
Even so, I liked the film. It was great to see Scully and Mulder back together again, even though I was hoping more for a UFO type story or something else then what we got. Still, nonetheless, it was a decent film.
Yeah, seeing them together again is the only reason why I gave it such a high grade. There were some decent character moments with the two but, in the end, that can't save the bad plot, story and pacing.
And the shipper in me liked seeing them all cuddly in bed talking inuendo.
I guess as it relates to the thread title the movie is not going to BOMB or FLOP, if only because its budget was only $30 million.
It currently has $17m and will be just over $18m by Thursday and $20m after the upcoming weekend. While not much to write home about the movie will fall just short of breaking even. Factor any the WW take and its still made money.
Not going to see X-Files 3: Doomsday in 2012 as Chris Carter hinted he'd like to do and tie back into the series but hey at least we got this...as mediocre as it was.
At least Carter didn't call it a "Valentine to the Fans".
It currently has $17m and will be just over $18m by Thursday and $20m after the upcoming weekend. While not much to write home about the movie will fall just short of breaking even. Factor any the WW take and its still made money.
Not going to see X-Files 3: Doomsday in 2012 as Chris Carter hinted he'd like to do and tie back into the series but hey at least we got this...as mediocre as it was.
At least Carter didn't call it a "Valentine to the Fans".
Seems reasonable to me, but that argument never seemed to work with Serenity.....
Serenity, didn't nearly break even at the end of its run. After the upcoming 3rd weekend X-Files:2 will be over the $20m mark and keep closing on that $30m number, albeit slowly. Whereas Serenity($40m budget, $25m take) didn't manage to crawl within distance of its production budget.
The argument works here. It won't see a sequel but its not a bomb or flop. Serenity did bomb, unfortunately.
I'd say this movie is a creative bomb/flop.