Wouldn't recent events lead to full war between Fed and Romulan Free State?

[Gonzo]

Star Trek Picard: Season Two The Romulan War.

I don't think the Romulans are in a fit state to fight a war with anyone, plus it would be a shame for such a backslide after working together so well in the Dominion War.

There is also the question as to what the ordinary Romulan population will think of it all including the politicians and military, if they find out that it was their own people that caused the Rescue plan to be abandoned.

They blamed the Federation and Starfleet but when they find out it was their own doing it could have serious civil consequences, Starfleet may not need to do anything as the Romulan Military and various Governments may decide it is time to get their own house in order.

Could we see reunification, if so I would expect that Picard will be investigating the Vulcan/Romulan schism and where the Vulcans originally came from before they arrived on Vulcan as indicated by Narek.

 

[Sci]

While the Federation might try using Section 31, special ops, orbital strikes, interstellar beaming, etc to get Oh, the Romulans, like most national govts today would object to it. Small weak states can only shake their fists at the sky and send sternly worded notes to the UN.

As I noted above, interstellar civilizations have such powerful technologies in their possession that even a "weaker" space force can inflict devastating blows on a powerful state if they don't have too many scruples about killing civilians.

Stronger states can do more than that. If I am the POTF, I would ask Section 31

No, you wouldn't. By the 24th Century, Section 31 has been driven underground and is an illegal conspiracy within Starfleet that doesn't answer to the Federation government (similar to the Zhat Vash's relationship to the Tal Shiar, actually).

4) Hell, if Starfleet had placed Nedar under arrest on Earth, the Romulan Free State could use your exact same logic as an excuse to invade the Federation. "General Nedar prevented untold millions of innocent Romulans from being evacuated, and now you're refusing to extradite her to the Romulan Free State to stand trial for her crimes against the Romulan people? The Romulan Free State is well within its rights to go in and take her out! If you consider that an act of war, then bluntly you shouldn't have been harboring Nedar!"

If Starfleet just demoted Oh from Commodore to Captain and let her retire to Hawaii and didn't provide any serious charges, the Romulans would be in their right to go to Earth and take her out.

Would they? Or would it constitute a violation of Federation sovereignty? From an RFS point of view, what if the Federation retaliated by deciding to invade the RFS, arrest and imprison the government, and occupy their planets indefinitely a la Cardassia and Bajor? Would you, as Prime Minister or Taoiseach or whatever of the Romulan Free State, be willing to risk endangering millions of lives for the sake of retrieving one war criminal?

I mean, they already had commandos in Picard's vinyeard after all. At least now it would be justified.

I mean, that's part of the question: Did they have commandos on Earth? Who is "they?" The Zhat Vash? The Tal Shiar? The Free State?

Sussing out the different Romulan factions and their levels of responsibility for the Coppelius Crisis is a really important factor here that you keep ignoring.

And the Romulans have a right to ask her for trial. She can face charges there after the Starfleet ones. Or the diplomats can work out which trial comes first, Romulan or Fed.

Totally agreed.

What point are you trying to make?

That violent action against a foreign state almost always carries unintended consequences that you cannot predict and whose costs can far exceed the benefits of such violent action, and that therefore the Federation should absolutely not undertake violent action unless doing so is absolutely necessary for their own protection. You keep reaching for violent action as your first resort instead of your last, and you don't seem to realize that's what you're doing.

I don't think the Romulans are in a fit state to fight a war with anyone, plus it would be a shame for such a backslide after working together so well in the Dominion War.

There is also the question as to what the ordinary Romulan population will think of it all including the politicians and military, if they find out that it was their own people that caused the Rescue plan to be abandoned.

They blamed the Federation and Starfleet but when they find out it was their own doing it could have serious civil consequences, Starfleet may not need to do anything as the Romulan Military and various Governments may decide it is time to get their own house in order.

Excellent points! Nedar may well find herself on the run from the Free State and from the other Romulan states. Depending on how much control Zhat Vash members have over the Tal Shiar, it may find itself a, as an organization, to be a de facto paramilitary without a government.

Could we see reunification, if so I would expect that Picard will be investigating the Vulcan/Romulan schism and where the Vulcans originally came from before they arrived on Vulcan as indicated by Narek.

Good God, I really hate that whole "Vulcans aren't really from Vulcan" line from TOS. Wish Chabon hadn't included it.

 

[Yistaan]

sorry double post.

 

[Yistaan]

I don't think the Romulans are in a fit state to fight a war with anyone, plus it would be a shame for such a backslide after working together so well in the Dominion War.

There is also the question as to what the ordinary Romulan population will think of it all including the politicians and military, if they find out that it was their own people that caused the Rescue plan to be abandoned.

They blamed the Federation and Starfleet but when they find out it was their own doing it could have serious civil consequences, Starfleet may not need to do anything as the Romulan Military and various Governments may decide it is time to get their own house in order.

Could we see reunification, if so I would expect that Picard will be investigating the Vulcan/Romulan schism and where the Vulcans originally came from before they arrived on Vulcan as indicated by Narek.

We know the Qowat Milat are enemies of the Tal Shiar. Maybe Elnor will lead a revolt against the Tal Shiar with the Qowat Milat getting the populace to their side. It'd give his character something to do next season.

That's not true. Taken from https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Oh

"Admiral Clancy, I know I need hardly remind you if the Romulans were running clandestine operations on Earth, I would know. and then you would know. And then all of Starfleet would know, because clearly, that would be an overt and intolerable act of war."
-Oh, to Kirsten Clancy, on Romulan anti-synth ops on Earth (PIC: "Maps and Legends")

I mean, that's part of the question: Did they have commandos on Earth? Who is "they?" The Zhat Vash? The Tal Shiar? The Free State?

Sussing out the different Romulan factions and their levels of responsibility for the Coppelius Crisis is a really important factor here that you keep ignoring.

Even though Oh is a traitor, when she says that Romulans operating on Earth would be an act of war, Clancy pointedly does not disagree with her. And the Romulans did far more than operate on Earth clearly, they killed tens of thousands on Mars.

If I'm not clarifying the Romulan factions, that's because the characters like Oh and Clancy themselves do not (see above quote). Oh acts as if the Treaty of Algeron applies to her, and Riker doesn't dispute that. Rizzo cites Romulan Free State law as justification for killing Hugh. Oh and Rizzo all act like the Tal Shiar and Zhat Vash are a branch of the Romulan Free State and Riker, Clancy, and others don't dispute that at all. Why are you insisting on Romulan faction issues when the characters in the show never bring up any?

@Sci , why would Rizzo care about observing Romulan Free State law on the Artifact in regards to killing Hugh if she weren't a member of the Free State herself? And she gives orders to Free State soldiers on the Artifact. And since Oh is her superior, Oh also belongs to the Free State and the Zhat Vash and Tal Shiar operate from the Free State.

Thus, all evidence points to the Romulan Free State having to provide an explanation for this messy situation.

 

[Sci]

We know the Qowat Milat are enemies of the Tal Shiar. Maybe Elnor will lead a revolt against the Tal Shiar with the Qowat Milat getting the populace to their side. It'd give his character something to do next season.

That would be a very interesting possibility! The Qowat Milat are certainly an indication of how fractured Romulan society is post-Supernova.

Even though Oh is a traitor, when she says that Romulans operating on Earth would be an act of war, Clancy pointedly does not disagree with her.

And Nedar only said that to try to manipulate her into not seeing that she herself was a Zhat Vash agent disloyal to the Federation.

And the Romulans did far more than operate on Earth clearly, they killed tens of thousands on Mars.

You keep saying "the Romulans" as though they're only one political actor, but they're not. The Zhat Vash killed those people on Mars, as well as Dahj and her boyfriend, not "the Romulans."

If I'm not clarifying the Romulan factions, that's because the characters like Oh and Clancy themselves do not (see above quote). Oh acts as if the Treaty of Algeron applies to her, and Riker doesn't dispute that.

More specifically, she acts as if the consequences of open conflict with the Federation fleet would be negative for her. She tries to use the Treaty as a bullshit loophole for her existing plan, and when her legal fiction of justification is removed, she decides that the costs of opening fire on the Federation fleet would outweigh the costs of not genociding the Coppelians. Maybe, for instance, she decided that such an action would be too costly to civilian lives in the Free State. Maybe she decided that she couldn't maintain the Zhat Vash's secrecy within Romulan society if she fired on a Federation fleet. Or maybe she just decided they'd probably get their asses kicked and it would be better not to get Romulan lives killed. We don't know.

Rizzo cites Romulan Free State law as justification for killing Hugh.

Yes (after she overhears him planning to seize control of the Artifact and use it in hostile action), but that doesn't mean the Tal Shiar or Zhat Vash are actually loyal to the Free State or under the Free State's control. Plenty of rogue organizations use legal loopholes to create excuses to do what they were gonna do anyway.

Oh and Rizzo all act like the Tal Shiar and Zhat Vash are a branch of the Romulan Free State and Riker, Clancy, and others don't dispute that at all.

Narissa never acts as though the Zhat Vash are a "branch" of the Free State. No such dialogue occurs. Laris is very clear in describing them as a conspiracy within Romulan society dating back centuries.

Edited to add: Really, I would say that the Zhat Vash are to the Tal Shiar and Romulan Free State, as Hydra is to SHIELD and the United States government in Captain America: The Winter Soldier. End edit.

Why are you insisting on Romulan faction issues when the characters in the show never bring up any?

Because you are a proposing a course of action that is not proposed by the actual characters that necessitates clarifying the relationships between those factions in order to justify the course of action you want to take.

 

[Yistaan]

That would be a very interesting possibility! The Qowat Milat are certainly an indication of how fractured Romulan society is post-Supernova.



And Nedar only said that to try to manipulate her into not seeing that she herself was a Zhat Vash agent disloyal to the Federation.



You keep saying "the Romulans" as though they're only one political actor, but they're not. The Zhat Vash killed those people on Mars, as well as Dahj and her boyfriend, not "the Romulans."



More specifically, she acts as if the consequences of open conflict with the Federation fleet would be negative for her. She tries to use the Treaty as a bullshit loophole for her existing plan, and when her legal fiction of justification is removed, she decides that the costs of opening fire on the Federation fleet would outweigh the costs of not genociding the Coppelians. Maybe, for instance, she decided that such an action would be too costly to civilian lives in the Free State. Maybe she decided that she couldn't maintain the Zhat Vash's secrecy within Romulan society if she fired on a Federation fleet. Or maybe she just decided they'd probably get their asses kicked and it would be better not to get Romulan lives killed. We don't know.



Yes (after she overhears him planning to seize control of the Artifact and use it in hostile action), but that doesn't mean the Tal Shiar or Zhat Vash are actually loyal to the Free State or under the Free State's control. Plenty of rogue organizations use legal loopholes to create excuses to do what they were gonna do anyway.



Narissa never acts as though the Zhat Vash are a "branch" of the Free State. No such dialogue occurs. Laris is very clear in describing them as a conspiracy within Romulan society dating back centuries.

Edited to add: Really, I would say that the Zhat Vash are to the Tal Shiar and Romulan Free State, as Hydra is to SHIELD and the United States government in Captain America: The Winter Soldier. End edit.



Because you are a proposing a course of action that is not proposed by the actual characters that necessitates clarifying the relationships between those factions in order to justify the course of action you want to take.

At this point we're at an impasse until we see how the Romulan Free State handles things in Season 2. If Oh has no safe haven in Romulan space anymore come Season 2 (or the Free State are actively hunting her but honestly don't know where she is), then there's no need for tension between the Fed and Free State.

Ironically if the diplomats clarify that both the Fed and Free State are victims of Oh, it might bring them closer together now that the Romulans have someone new to blame for their lack of aid.

 

[The Old Mixer]

It's how I interpreted their scenes together in episode 2. I take it no one else did?

I'd go back and rewatch. Clancy was reporting what Picard told her to Oh in Oh's cover role as Chief of Starfleet Security. Then Oh got all secret-plotty with Rizzo because Oh and Rizzo were secretly Zhat Vash spies. There was never any indication that Clancy was in on who Oh was really working for.

 

[valkyrie013]

If i was the Romulan Free state, or any of the other -Stan's I'd be heaping mad at Oh and the Zhat Vash.!
Because, her and ZV actions led to the Federation rescue fleet being destroyed, and the Federation pulling out and becoming more isolationist.. which led to uncounted millions dieing on Romulas ..
Once the information is out.. They would all, federation included.. be looking for Oh and ZV and try to bring them to justice.. i mean.. If I was Oh.. I'd wait till AFTER the fleet rescued her countrymen/women from romulas, Then go Scanners.. but NOOO.. She had to be the dumb..
So maybe the next season, Oh may be on the run, so will Nerak.. and they both end up on the Mermaid.. maybe..

 

[DEWLine]

If Nedar and the Zhat Vash are as rogue as I suspect them to be, then I have to consider the possibility that the UFP and RFS will be talking about an joint international fugitive-hunting operation. Followed by the equivalent of an international criminal tribunal...?

But the writing team will have their own ideas on this, in any case.

 

[cooleddie74]

There are probably various Romulan factions with control in different parts of the former Star Empire. Oh's Tal Shiar/Zhat Vash fleet might have nothing to do with the Free State.

Kor

This.

Sometimes intelligence agencies and secret police forces do things without official sanction. Just because the Tal Shiar committed mass murder doesn't mean that either the Star Empire's leadership or that of the Free State ordered it or even approved of the attack.

 

[Yistaan]

This.

Sometimes intelligence agencies and secret police forces do things without official sanction. Just because the Tal Shiar committed mass murder doesn't mean that either the Star Empire's leadership or that of the Free State ordered it or even approved of the attack.

The fact that the Zhat Vash have 218 warbirds on call doesn't speak well of the Free State, but it also occurred to me that the Romulan Free State can say this same woman was head of Starfleet Intelligence for years and that doesn't speak well of the Federation either.

Quite frankly it was the bit about Oh heading to Romulan space that bothered me. The Fed needs assurances that she won't attack again. This can still be resolved in Season 2, or some tie-in fiction. Star Trek Picard: Aftermath comic isn't a bad idea, like what IDW did with Discovery Season 2.

 

[cooleddie74]

Like I said: I'D have followed her and captured her by force. To Hell with the border. But that's just me.

 

[Yistaan]

Like I said: I'D have followed her and captured her by force. To Hell with the border. But that's just me.

Agnes should have used the magical synth sonic screwdriver to bring up the shield frequency of Oh's warbird. Give that frequency to Riker and beam Oh directly to the brig of the Zheng He.

Riker: Ok, we got who we came for, you 218 warbirds run along now. We have no quarrel with you, you were just duped by the Zhat Vash and you don't even realize to what extent.

(broadcasts proof of Oh sabotaging the Mars androids)

 

[fireproof78]

The fact that the Zhat Vash have 218 warbirds on call doesn't speak well of the Free State, but it also occurred to me that the Romulan Free State can say this same woman was head of Starfleet Intelligence for years and that doesn't speak well of the Federation either.

Quite frankly it was the bit about Oh heading to Romulan space that bothered me. The Fed needs assurances that she won't attack again. This can still be resolved in Season 2, or some tie-in fiction. Star Trek Picard: Aftermath comic isn't a bad idea, like what IDW did with Discovery Season 2.

Next season the Romulan ban.

Because that will go over well.

 

[The Librarian]

People keep saying that the Federations "knows" Nedar/Oh was responsible for the Mars attack. Do they really, though? Sure, Jurati can say what she believes, but right now the only thing that's provable is that Oh was a Romulan agent.This is super embarrassing for both sides, but it's not proof that Oh had anything to do with the synth malfunction. She's had fourteen years to cover up any physical evidence. The Federation Council may have been convinced enough by Jurati's testimony to reconsider the ban, but the word of one confused person suffering from some sort of second-hand psychic trauma may not be enough for them to risk war over something that happened most of a generation ago. They may well say, "well, she got a billion Romulans killed for nothing, that's payback enough as far as the Romulan state goes". (And then authorize Starfleet to try to get her specifically.)

 

[Tarek71]

I'd go back and rewatch. Clancy was reporting what Picard told her to Oh in Oh's cover role as Chief of Starfleet Security. Then Oh got all secret-plotty with Rizzo because Oh and Rizzo were secretly Zhat Vash spies. There was never any indication that Clancy was in on who Oh was really working for.

It is pretty clear from the Clancy-Oh conversation that Clancy is not part of any cabal. She asks Oh to look into what Picard told her. Something she would not have done had Clancy already known all about it. She would have said something like what Oh said to Rizzo. That Picard is on to this.

 

[Tarek71]

As I noted above, interstellar civilizations have such powerful technologies in their possession that even a "weaker" space force can inflict devastating blows on a powerful state if they don't have too many scruples about killing civilians.

That was a reference to the current Earth situation only. Weak states (not just "weaker", since that would include Britain vs the USA) have limited response actions, vs stronger states (like the RFS) who can hit back in many varying ways. Having the ability to deal "devastating blows" would mean, not weak. It definitely effects your calculus as to whether to launch strikes into their territory.

And yes I would inquire with Section 31. I am not aware of their status having changed.

 

[Dale Sams]

I don't even get where TF Oceans 11....I mean Picards 7 (?) are headed to at the end of ep 10! They're such a disparate group. Where are they going??

Season 2: The great dropping off.

 

[Sci]

And yes I would inquire with Section 31. I am not aware of their status having changed.

Their 24th Century status was established in their very first appearances on DS9: They are a rogue organization that does not answer to the Federation government and is not accountable to it. They even had agents secretly spying on the Federation President himself, according to "Inquisition."

Their 23rd Century counterparts do seem to have been officially recognized, but by the 24th Century they're no more answerable to the Federation President than Hydra in Captain America: The Winter Soldier was answerable to the U.S. President.

 

[Yminale]

Their 24th Century status was established in their very first appearances on DS9: They are a rogue organization that does not answer.

Being unanswerable to anyone means they are not rogues. Being rogue implies you are answerable to someone. They are also fully sanctioned as they are specifically listed in the Federation Charter (that for some reason no one actually reads).