Wouldn't recent events lead to full war between Fed and Romulan Free State?

[Yistaan]

What exactly would be the purpose of going to war with the Romulan Free State? Or the endgame goal?

The Federation knows that the Mars Attack was masterminded by Nedar under her "Oh" alias, and that it was the product of a small conspiracy within the Tal Shiar called the Zhat Vash. The Federation can reasonably demand that the Free State extradite Nedar and other Zhat Vash members, but what can it reasonably demand beyond that? The Mars Attack took place under the Star Empire, and the Star Empire is gone. The Romulan people have sundered into multiple competing states.

I mean, seriously, what's the Federation gonna do? Invade the Free State? Occupy New Romulus? What's the end game here?

Just ask the United States how well that strategy has worked out in Afghanistan.

This (and many other posts on this thread) completely misses the point that Oh and her fleet went back to Romulan space with the understanding she'd be safe there.

It doesn't matter which Romulan faction holds Oh. The Fed's within their rights to go in and take her out, like the US operation in Pakistan against bin Laden. Whether the Romulans consider that an act of war is up to the Romulans, but if they do consider it an act of war then bluntly they shouldn't have been harboring Oh.

If a Romulan representative accompanied Riker in the season finale (think how Korrd ordered Klaa to stand down in Star Trek 5), denounced Oh as a traitor that destroyed the Romulan people, and told Oh she was disavowed and ordered her to the surrender to the Federation, and more importantly said that she had no safe haven in Romulan space to harbor her, we wouldn't be having this discussion and there wouldn't be any talk of war.

 

[Sci]

This (and many other posts on this thread) completely misses the point that Oh and her fleet went back to Romulan space with the understanding she'd be safe there.

Sure. Doesn't meant that she intended to stay there. It's perfectly plausible that she decided to stop off at New Romulan Freeworld before going somewhere else.

Here's one possible scenario: General Nedar is both part of the Tal Shiar and the Zhat Vash, and her fleet represented Tal Shiar assets she appropriated for a Zhat Vash mission rather than receiving Tal Shiar approval. Maybe she's returning the fleet to RFS space to return the fleet to Tal Shiar control, and then from there she plans to disappear.

Hell, if she thinks she might face charges from Free State authorities, maybe she's going to skiddaddle even before the fleet arrives back at New Romluan Freeworld (or whatever the RFS capital planet is called).

It doesn't matter which Romulan faction holds Oh. The Fed's within their rights to go in and take her out, like the US operation in Pakistan against bin Laden. Whether the Romulans consider that an act of war is up to the Romulans, but if they do consider it an act of war then bluntly they shouldn't have been harboring Oh.

1) Her name is Nedar. "Oh" is her workname.

2) Being in Romulan space is not the same as harboring someone. You need to demonstrate that the Free State knows where she is and is seeking to protect her rather than apprehend her. Otherwise, you're engaging in an war of aggression, which is what they actually hanged the Nazi leaders in Nuremberg for.

3) Interstellar technologies are inherently so dangerous that it is immature and irresponsible to risk provoking a war if an alternative is possible. What if the RFS, still traumatized from the supernova, reacts to a bin-Ladin-capture-style operation from the Federation to capture Nedar by force, by deciding to ram a fleet of D'deridex-class warbirds into the planet Earth at Warp 9? Even less powerful military actors can still inflict devastating blows with the technologies they possess.

4) Hell, if Starfleet had placed Nedar under arrest on Earth, the Romulan Free State could use your exact same logic as an excuse to invade the Federation. "General Nedar prevented untold millions of innocent Romulans from being evacuated, and now you're refusing to extradite her to the Romulan Free State to stand trial for her crimes against the Romulan people? The Romulan Free State is well within its rights to go in and take her out! If you consider that an act of war, then bluntly you shouldn't have been harboring Nedar!"

5) Sounds to me like you're just looking for an excuse to go to war. Which is, y'know. Not what the Federation does.

If a Romulan representative accompanied Riker in the season finale (think how Korrd ordered Klaa to stand down in Star Trek 5), denounced Oh as a traitor that destroyed the Romulan people, and told Oh she was disavowed and ordered her to the surrender to the Federation, and more importantly said that she had no safe haven in Romulan space to harbor her, we wouldn't be having this discussion and there wouldn't be any talk of war.

There has been no talk of war from characters in the actual show. And nothing in "Et in Arcadia Ego, Part II" prevents that scenario from taking place! It's just that that would be peripheral to the story PIC is actually telling, so it didn't appear.

I suspect we'll find out in S2.

 

[Tarek71]

While the Federation might try using Section 31, special ops, orbital strikes, interstellar beaming, etc to get Oh, the Romulans, like most national govts today would object to it. Small weak states can only shake their fists at the sky and send sternly worded notes to the UN. Stronger states can do more than that. If I am the POTF, I would ask Section 31 and SF Intelligence how they missed a Romulan agent as Starfleet Sec chief. Or maybe they didnt miss it. In which case, there is a bigger problem.

 

[rfmcdpei]

Sure. Doesn't meant that she intended to stay there. It's perfectly plausible that she decided to stop off at New Romulan Freeworld before going somewhere else.

Here's one possible scenario: General Nedar is both part of the Tal Shiar and the Zhat Vash, and her fleet represented Tal Shiar assets she appropriated for a Zhat Vash mission rather than receiving Tal Shiar approval. Maybe she's returning the fleet to RFS space to return the fleet to Tal Shiar control, and then from there she plans to disappear.

Hell, if she thinks she might face charges from Free State authorities, maybe she's going to skiddaddle even before the fleet arrives back at New Romluan Freeworld (or whatever the RFS capital planet is called).

There are any number of possibilities, none of which have been excluded by what we have seen.

Would some insight would have been nice? Sure. The problem is that Picard did not tell the story that way. If there would have been a Romulan authority to denounce Nedar on the bridge of Riker's ship, for instance, we would have probably needed to have that Romulan's existence established beforehand. The only thing close to a Romulan authority figure that we had met was the ex-senator decapitated by Elron.

Should there have been that sort of story-building? Maybe, maybe not; it depends on what stories they wanted to tell the most, how much time they had.

 

[Yistaan]

4) Hell, if Starfleet had placed Nedar under arrest on Earth, the Romulan Free State could use your exact same logic as an excuse to invade the Federation. "General Nedar prevented untold millions of innocent Romulans from being evacuated, and now you're refusing to extradite her to the Romulan Free State to stand trial for her crimes against the Romulan people? The Romulan Free State is well within its rights to go in and take her out! If you consider that an act of war, then bluntly you shouldn't have been harboring Nedar!"

If Starfleet just demoted Oh from Commodore to Captain and let her retire to Hawaii and didn't provide any serious charges, the Romulans would be in their right to go to Earth and take her out. I mean, they already had commandos in Picard's vinyeard after all. At least now it would be justified.

And the Romulans have a right to ask her for trial. She can face charges there after the Starfleet ones. Or the diplomats can work out which trial comes first, Romulan or Fed.

What point are you trying to make? I agree Romulans should come to Earth and take Oh out if the Fed doesn't file charges on her. But they should only stay long enough to get Oh and leave, and don't shoot anyone else on the way like Janeway or O'Brien, same as if the Fed went in and took Oh out and left without shooting Donatra or Tomalak.

 

[fireproof78]

Ultimately, there is no reason for the Federation to go to war when there are alternatives to explore with the Romulan Free State. Even if Oh thinks she is safe that isn't automatically a guarantee and she may be banking on her fleet to support her.

Riker did the diplomatic thing. Now, let the diplomats sort it out rather than bloodshed.

 

[Agony_Boothb]

My guess is the Romulan free state will be hunting nedar down as well as any zhat vash associates. Not only did they almost bring the romulans into a war with the Federation but they also contributed to the loss of the artifact. Even if nedar had been officially sanctioned I think that alone would have had some high ranking romulans wanting her head.

 

[The Wormhole]

Um...when and where was this established?

It's how I interpreted their scenes together in episode 2. I take it no one else did?

 

[Tarek71]

Well, when spies return safely home, nothing will happen to them. Western Allies were never happy when a Soviet spy made it safely back to the Soviet Union (and vice versa), but there is not much that can be done about it. The US will pat it's own agents and operatives on the back when they are successfully extracted after a job well done. They will certainly not be extradited or be put on trial.

You might think the Soviets had a "right" to launch a strike into the US or send assassins to kill US operatives after they return to the US after spying on the Soviets, but the US govt does not share that view. And provocative action risks escalation.

To the extent that Oh was not a state spy, but a terrorist, you can hope that changes the equation. But we dont know that she was not a state spy. She may well have been passing info to the RFS. They may or may not have known about her ZV activities.

 

[fireproof78]

Well, when spies return safely home, nothing will happen to them. Western Allies were never happy when a Soviet spy made it safely back to the Soviet Union (and vice versa), but there is not much that can be done about it. The US will pat it's own agents and operatives on the back when they are successfully extracted after a job well done. They will certainly not be extradited or be put on trial.

You might think the Soviets had a "right" to launch a strike into the US or send assassins to kill US operatives after they return to the US after spying on the Soviets, but the US govt does not share that view. And provocative action risks escalation.

I would normally agree but this assumes Oh acted with the Romulan Free State's blessing.

 

[Tarek71]

I added a final bit to address that prior to your post.

 

[Yistaan]

You might think the Soviets had a "right" to launch a strike into the US or send assassins to kill US operatives after they return to the US after spying on the Soviets, but the US govt does not share that view. And provocative action risks escalation.

It is a tricky situation. I think the difference from other issues where a country sends assassins to take out someone in another state and the state where the assassination takes place objects, that state will often say they don't agree that the person in question was a criminal.

So the key here is showing the evidence of Oh's Mars complicity to the Romulan Free State to let them know that punishing her is very much in their interest as she has the blood of countless Romulans on her hands. And hope the Romulans don't pull a Vreenak and shout, "It's a faaaaaaaake!!!!!!"

 

[Gonzo]

It looks like the Commodore has blown her cover in Starfleet at the very least, assuming Picard told Clancy about what she did to Agnes, it would be a bit ridiculous otherwise although Riker labels the Commodore as Tal'Shiar so there is a question mark about who knows what.

Beyond that it could go in any number of ways and we may have a bit of a timeskip between the ends of S1 and beginning of S2, perhaps just into the 25th Century.

 

[Yistaan]

It looks like the Commodore has blown her cover in Starfleet at the very least, assuming Picard told Clancy about what she did to Agnes, it would be a bit ridiculous otherwise although Riker labels the Commodore as Tal'Shiar so there is a question mark about who knows what.

Beyond that it could go in any number of ways and we may have a bit of a timeskip between the ends of S1 and beginning of S2, perhaps just into the 25th Century.

When exactly did Oh know her game was up and flee? Was there no possibility of arresting her before she found out her cover was blown?

My memories of how the timeline where Starfleet and Oh knew about things is hazy. Perhaps Oh knew the game was up once she learned Picard gained access to the Artifact?

 

[fireproof78]

I added a final bit to address that prior to your post.

Fair enough.

 

[Gonzo]

When exactly did Oh know her game was up and flee? Was there no possibility of arresting her before she found out her cover was blown?

My memories of how the timeline where Starfleet and Oh knew about things is hazy. Perhaps Oh knew the game was up once she learned Picard gained access to the Artifact?

We don't know any of those things at the moment, all we do know is that Clancy sent the heavies in to back Picard up and Oh had the clearance to find out about it pretty quickly, that may have prompted the Commodore to act faster than she would have otherwise and would explain why Starfleet wasn't far behind the Romulans.

It all happened off camera so we have no idea what went down, the Commodore could have just disappeared, Clancy smelled a rat and went all in.

There is also the matter of burden of proof, it was only when Jurati spilled her guts to Picard that he found out that the Commodore is the leader and source of the problem, we don't even know what he did or did not share with Clancy.

My main concern is how Riker introduced himself to the Commodore, it could be taken more than one way, he may not realise that she is Starfleets Chief of Security, if he had I would have expected him to state as much but he didn't.

So at this point its anyone's guess.

 

[Yistaan]

There has been no talk of war from characters in the actual show.

That's not true. Taken from https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Oh

"Admiral Clancy, I know I need hardly remind you if the Romulans were running clandestine operations on Earth, I would know. and then you would know. And then all of Starfleet would know, because clearly, that would be an overt and intolerable act of war."
-Oh, to Kirsten Clancy, on Romulan anti-synth ops on Earth (PIC: "Maps and Legends")

 

[fireproof78]

Star Trek Picard: Season Two The Romulan War.

 

[Nyotarules]

Star Trek Picard: Season Two The Romulan War.

Season two needs to be about a contagious virus spreading like wildfire around the UFP called the Human virus cos it came from Earth.. The 'wise' UFP President says it will be all over in 3 weeks after calling it a Romulan hoax.

 

[Gonzo]

That's not true. Taken from https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Oh

"Admiral Clancy, I know I need hardly remind you if the Romulans were running clandestine operations on Earth, I would know. and then you would know. And then all of Starfleet would know, because clearly, that would be an overt and intolerable act of war."
-Oh, to Kirsten Clancy, on Romulan anti-synth ops on Earth (PIC: "Maps and Legends")

That is the question really, will Starfleet/Federation make the truth public or not, there are arguments for both options.

If they go public it could start a war and will make Starfleet and Clancy look like complete idiots (career death if ever there was one), if they don't then the attack on Mars will never be answered for, at least not publicly.

The ban has already been lifted so that would indicate that it is going to be made public or already has, the ramifications and fallout of that would be enough to fill a series on its own.

It would give the Federation a lot of political leverage against the Romulans, there was no love lost between some of the Federation member worlds and the Romulans from the start if it all comes out that will only be made worse.

Hard to say which way the show runners will go at this point.