Yeah, but I just don't buy that things Jean-Luc are going through would drive him to make such obviously bad tactical decisions. Emotionally compromised? Sure. Completely delusional assessment of the Titan's tactical profile compared to the Shrike? Not buying it.
Actually Picard's tactical maneuver is good. They can use the trail to bait the Shrike, and then attack them from behind. It is a sound strategy, until that bait was already used by Riker to run away, but failed. The saboteur cripple the warp drive with explosion, to give the Shrike a hint about the whereabout of Titan.
And then, this is Picard's fault. He's mentally compromised, to be blindly force his idea to Riker, while the opportunity is already passed away. He should aware that the explosion already give the enemy an idea about their where-about. And Riker's prior decision already give the Shrike a bit of time to realized that they're being cheated with a false trail. And then make a tactical assessment about what the Titan will do after that. Thus they can plan a trap to counter-attack Picard's tactical maneuver.
So basically, Picard's tactical maneuver is a good strategy, except that it's already lose the opportunity to work as intended. But still to be forced by Picard to Riker.
When they realized that they lose the opportunity to escape, Riker should hide inside the Nebula while seeking the saboteur first. At that time, they can send a Shuttle to leave the Nebula, to contact the Starfleet. Hell, they're only several hours from the Earth's space station. They should be able to contact Deep Space 11, if they can send a shuttle out from the Nebula.
Just remember, that the travel time between the Earth's space to the nebula is only take several hours. We can find it by seeing that they start to move at the time of Captain Shaw sleeps, and arrived when captain Shaw wake up from his sleep.