and the Enterprise D would be lost with all hands with Soren back in the Nexus.
Think you were ok for a little bit, but no way to say that things went on otherwise the same for 100 years after. If you had the probe destroying or severely damaging Earth, you likely lost Picard's family, or drastically changed their history. You altered the history of everything after (pretty large impact with Earth being done), changed crewing and potentially existence of Ent-A/B/C. Almost no shot of the Ent-D being there for the Nexus. Either didn't exist, was destroyed years ago when other captain (or just different Picard) screwed up, etc.
This is why the mirror universe episodes never made sense to me. If the change was near-term, you could sell the original episode being not too different. Saying that everyone still exists, just differently, 100+ years later is nonsense. And then when ENT played with it and implied the change was all the way back at First Contact, it retroactively made the original TOS episode implausible as well...