I would say that it's pretty clear the future of geek niche content will involve paying more $$$ for products targeted at a narrower and narrower audience. Things like kickstarter and patreon show the direction things will go, particularly as the ad revenue apocalypse continues to engulf all of media.
First it came for newspapers, radio, and music... what has happened in those industries? You have a few mega-players left and widespread fragmentation everywhere else. Star Trek has almost always been a niche, yet mid-level franchise. It's future likely depends on a more narrow niche being profitable, or space opening up in the market again for more mid-level budget films and TV series.
More recently, Stranger Things is something that I think is aimed towards both groups at the same time (despite taking place in the '80s) and has really taken off.
I wonder how scalable the success of that series is, or if it was just lightening in a bottle. It manages to pull off 4-quadrant genre very well.
I have five years on you, but my experience was similar. I wouldn't go quite so far with Beyond to say everyone else in the theater was a senior citizen but, at 36, I did feel like I was almost one of the youngest people there.
I saw STB in Estonia of all places... all I could focus on was how lost I was without being able to read the subtitles showing what the USS Franklin survivors were saying
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Yep. This is essentially what I'd like. A Seven of Nine centered Enterprise show that does the stuff talked about in the prologue in TOS and TNG. Strange new worlds, boldy going, etc. It can be a Next Next Generation by the time it's done. Let the forebears show up for some one off stuff if you want but it's the NNG/Seven stuff I'd really show up for. And I am a HUGE TNG person....
This would also be an ample opportunity for Gen X and elder Millennial parents to introduce their kids to Star Trek, assuming it was held to a TV-14 level.
To round this off, a frenemy of mine in high school told me "Star Trek is dying!" This was back in 1996. Nineteen Ninety-Six. Almost 30 years later, new content is still being put out and people are still saying "Star Trek is dying!" It's not and it won't. When it goes away, it always comes back.
Star Trek really did peak between 1994 and 1996, so they might've been onto something <G>.
These are good points but I think the one difference now is that from TOS all the way to the end of ENT, the media industry was the same/similar model for all of that time. It definitely evolved, and there were big changes in how networks and syndication worked, etc., but everything was largely variations on the same theme. Things are very different now, so I’m not sure we can be confident that downs will lead to ups and pauses won’t be permanent.
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I think the model hasn't changed as much as people believe. I think Streaming effectively functions the same way Syndication used to. TOS through ENT were "syndicated" on Netflix, until they moved to CBSAA/Paramount+. Which I wouldn't call "syndication" so much as I would call it "premium cable" due to not being as widely adopted. So all the series from DSC onward have been released on the equivalent of "premium cable" when they should be in "syndication". Netflix, Hulu, whatever. If Prodigy is any indication, I think they'll all end up on Netflix at the end of the day, but that's a whole other discussion. Anyway...
I think for decades, the entry path to the franchise (at least in the US) was strip syndication. For me it was TNG every weeknight at 6pm, counterprogramming to the local news (which in the US would be three channels with competing newscasts) and the only other competition being 2-3 other channels. If Star Trek was bound to appeal to you, it was very easy to find. And if you really liked it, it was easy to become dedicated fan.
Netflix at least makes series easily and widely accessible, but at the same time there's far more completion.
Granted, Gen Z people I've talked with have easily become fans of anime series that run into the hundreds and hundreds of episodes, so scale alone shouldn't be a daunting barrier.
You're right in that Trek certainly is a long-running franchise with international recognition and appeal...but its appeal and revenue generation potential seems to be medium to good at best, and not blockbuster level. Combined with how expensive it is to make I am worried....
$8-9 million an episode seems bloated. With greater planning and efficiency, $4 million should be doable.
(P+ has since ordered it trimmed back to seven per episode).
